My Spread Betting Blog

[MereNovice]

As a general rule, SpIn has higher quotes than SpreadEx on most markets like these.
If you want to sell, SpreadEx is the site to use!

I'd say that this just confirms that selling at 355 is a decent bet.

[DungBeetle]

Any fancies for the golf?

Bubba Watson is interesting me as a buy of "no max" finishing position at around 60.  This course will punish any of his errant shots and restrict his ability for his normal brilliant recovery and inventiveness.  I could see him having a nightmare week.  Think I'll make a small play.  Also going to buy Fowler on the leaderboard index at around 6 as he seems pretty consistent in Links so far in his career.

[DungBeetle]

Lol - Watson leads the field after 7 holes.  Looks another expensive escapade incoming!

[redsimon]

Updated Kallis score after First Test?

[The Camel]

Updated Kallis score after First Test?

He hasn't been online since July 19th.

Hope he hasn't topped himself.

[Phil_Magroin]

Updated Kallis score after First Test?

He hasn't been online since July 19th.

Hope he hasn't topped himself.

Been in Spain! Yeah, not going great although I try not to judge by results with no sample size. His average is 56 and he is going at... infinity. I foresee a loss but hopefully he plays the way I expected him to play in the remaining two tests. He has already been rested for the ODIs showing he is ageing. However, it is worrying how easily he fended off 'the best combined bowling attack in the world'.

This thread isn't going anywhere. I will simply try harder to search for value.

Good luck and apologies for the first tip!

[Phil_Magroin]

Updated Kallis score after First Test?

Bad. 242 (182no, 40 in wickets and 20 in catches).

Then again, every SA player has those figures...

[Phil_Magroin]

Bets 2,3,4

Somerset vs Glamorgan CB40
1.45pm

2) My Matchmakers: Kieswetter Performance/Allenby Performance       
SELL -0.50 - 4.50 BUY

SELL @ 4 UNITS PP (basically taking Allenby perf over Kieswetter).

3) Glamorgan Team 50-Ups      SELL25 - 30BUY   

BUY @ 4 UNITS PP

4) Glamorgan Bigshots      SELL34 - 42BUY   

BUY @ 3.50 PP (25pts per six).

These are all based on my view that Somerset are slightly overpriced. You can't really predict sixes and 50ups. Having gone through all the markets, these appear to be the most appealing. I would like to post more, using my rough analysis of the averages but I don't have the time as the match kicks off soon. These are medium buy or sells but will not make up for the Kallis bet.

I will be writing far more for the player performances on football/NFL. One possible boxing bet later.
 

[Phil_Magroin]

Looking very good. I hope some got on...

[Phil_Magroin]

Results

2) My Matchmakers: Kieswetter Performance/Allenby Performance      
SELL -0.50 - 4.50 BUY

SELL @ 4 UNITS PP (basically taking Allenby perf over Kieswetter). VOID (KIESWETTER DIDN'T PLAY)

3) Glamorgan Team 50-Ups      SELL25 - 30BUY  

BUY @ 4 UNITS PP WIN +57X4= 228 POINTS!

4) Glamorgan Bigshots      SELL34 - 42BUY  

BUY @ 3.50 PP (25pts per six).

VOID (NON-RUNNER NORTH)

+228 POINTS after 4 bets (with Kallis bet following on).

I will be discussing the element of randomness in this blog from time to time. This is just one example. All those that followed the Kallis bet are frustrated as it looks like a (biggish loser). And yet, I make 228 points on the very next set of bets and I believe no one else got on. These things cannot be controlled.

There will be a couple of bets today.

[Phil_Magroin]

Bets 5 & 6

Arsenal vs Hong Kong Kitchee


5)

Ars Performance/HKK Perfomance   0-0   SELL89 - 95BUY

SELL @ 4PPP

6)

Hong Kong Kitchee Team Goal Minutes   0   SELL34 - 39BUY   

BUY @ 1.50PPP

Szczesny; Djourou, Miquel, Eastmond, Gibbs; Diaby, Coquelin; Oxlade-Chamberlain, Walcott, Miyaichi; Chamakh

This is one of the most incompetent back fours I've ever seen fielded for Arsenal. And although they have the pace of Walcott and Chamblerlain (who I do not expect to finish the match), they have serial wasters Diaby, Coquelin and Chamakh. I have a contact who for some reason is knowledgeable about Hong Kong Kitchee and he informs me they have more than enough for a goal. He rates they goal expectancy as 0.90, worth a small buy on the handicap or total goals outright.

Anyway, this is a friendly. Arsenal have clearly shown they couldn't care less about friendlies (though incorporated into the price somewhat). I was sorely tempted by Hong Kong Kitchee headed goal minutes and to buy their corners as I see one coming but I won't be greedy!

Again, I am aware the analysis is slipping somewhat. I intend to step it up as that is the only way I can be confident I have made every attempt to attain value.

Gl

[redsimon]

Updated Kallis score after First Test?

Bad. 242 (182no, 40 in wickets and 20 in catches).

Then again, every SA player has those figures...

I've never spread bet. What do you do here? Try and have a buy bet at the new spread to cap losses?

[Phil_Magroin]

Updated Kallis score after First Test?

Bad. 242 (182no, 40 in wickets and 20 in catches).

Then again, every SA player has those figures...

I've never spread bet. What do you do here? Try and have a buy bet at the new spread to cap losses?

Kallis Series All-Rounder Performance   242/1   SELL490 - 500BUY   

Yes, you can, although you'd lose to the margin twice. Theoretically, it is a separate bet and you'd only buy if the buy was value (which based on pre-test analysis), it isn't.

[Phil_Magroin]

Hong Kong Kitchee crushing. Arsenal defence absolutely appalling.

[Phil_Magroin]

5)

Ars Performance/HKK Perfomance   0-0   SELL89 - 95BUY

SELL @ 4PPP


MADE UP 26. 63 PTS WIN X 4 = +252

6)

Hong Kong Kitchee Team Goal Minutes   0   SELL34 - 39BUY  

BUY @ 1.50PPP

MADE UP 37. 2 PTS LOSS X 1.50 = -3.50

Total

228 POINTS + 252 POINTS -3.50 POINTS = +476.50 PTS