My Spread Betting Blog

[Phil_Magroin]

Hi all,

Apologies for the username. I was young when I made my account.

I work in the Sports betting industry and will bet on anything from Football, to cricket, to NFL. My focus is on the more obscure derivative markets where I feel it is possible to gain an edge since the traders cannot study the probabilities to the degree I can. They will generate a line using basic stats (or a model) and adjust based on smart money/liabilities.

Why this forum? From what I can tell, there are less trolls here than the other main one I use. Secondly, the traffic seems to be steady but not too overpowering.

The aim of this blog is three-fold:

1) To justify each every selection; in my head and in writing, so that value can be obtained. No tilt bets; no 'feel-based' justification.
2) To achieve a 500% growth in my bankroll (200 units) over the next 12 months (200 units is the liability needed. Clearly the max loss of certain bets could be far greater).
3) To entertain and educate if possible

Bets will be placed at Spreadex or Sporting Index. A bet can be anything from 0.25 of a unit to 50 units (depending on the spread/market i.e. Total knockdowns could be 0.2-0.4).

Follow along.

Cheers.

[millidonk]

Will be following with interest. GL.

[Killerkilsby]

Look forward to reading/learning

[Graham C]

Look forward to reading/learning

Will be following with interest. GL.

Good luck

[ZZZZZZZROPE]

sounds interesting, GL

[bobby1]

good luck mate.

[Phil_Magroin]

Thanks guys

Bet 1) England vs SA Test Series

This will be my only pick for a while as I haven't noticed any upcoming opportunities.

Market: Kallis Series All-Rounder Performance 355-370
Pick: Sell @ 1 unit per point.

Analysis:

Jacques Kallis will go down as one of the top 3 all-rounders of all time.

            Mat    Inns    NO    Runs     HS    Ave            BF              SR           100    50    0    4 s    6 s
Batting: 152    257    39    12379    224    56.78    27151    45.59    42    55    14    1375 90
            Mat    Inns    Overs    Mdns Runs           Wkts    BBI    BBM    Ave            Econ    SR    5    1
Bowling  152    252    3159.0    793    8957    276    6/54    9/92    32.45    2.83    68.6    5    0


Jacques Kallis, if fit, will play three test matches against England. This would ordinarily mean six innings. He bats number four but he is not 100% to play in all six innings (SA bat well/declare/rain). In his career he has missed 15.5% of possible innings. This is mostly related to SA playing weaker teams. Since England are a very strong team, we can notch this % of missed innings to 8%. Therefore he is expected to face 5.52 innings.

Kallis' batting average is a mighty 56.78. And somehow, considering his age, Kallis does not appear to be slowing down. As an absolute maximum (considering he is playing the best test nation in the world on home soil), for the purpose of this series, his expected average cannot be higher than 46 (46x5.52). Kallis has played brilliantly against every test nation but suggesting he is 10 runs worse off than his average in this contest (when he IS aging and has faced zimbabwe, bangladesh etc) cannot be easily argued against. Cook's test average is 48 and they are similar. Indeed they have extremely similar quotes in the series runs

=253.92 (SPIN's Kallis batting quote 225-240).

Kallis is however bowling less. Throughout his career he misses 17% of innings and bowls an average of 12.5 Overs an innings. However, this is falling, which makes sense considering his age. He hasn't bowled 25 Overs in a match for the last 18 matches. At an average of 10 Overs per innings and bowling in 4.98 innings, he will bowl approx 50 Overs in the series. His strike rate (68.6) is increasing considerably (as his bowling gets worse). At a minimum of 75.0 SR, he will take exactly four wickets in the series.

= 80pts (SPIN do not have a bowling count).

Kallis' catching remains constant. He average 0.63 catches per innings. Therefore if he will field in all six matches, he will take 3.77 catches

= 38pts.

Total = 371.62.

Now it would appear that a total of 371.62 means that there is no bet. Not so. The markets are all related. If Kallis is catching more (apart from c&bs which are rare), then he has less wickets to bowl and vice versa. Additionally, the more he bats, the less he bowls due to the tiredness factor/less Overs left in the match. Whilst his averages show what he does in his career, in isolated matches, I believe these factors matter. In addition, factored into his average is the chance of a possible very high score. This however, negates the chance of a very high score in the 2nd innings as he might not bat. Thirdly, I have been generous to Kallis in light of his recent form. Sporting Index have his quote 20pts lower. Fourthly, there is the small chance of injury/rest (increased due to age). I believe my bowling and catching figures are correct so there is profit in the quote to sell.

Due to the related nature of the bets and the randomness of averages, I cannot give an exact makeup figure. If there was an exact model for it, there would never be any value whatsoever. I can envisage it falling into 315-330. I also believe this market can be traded favourably since Kallis may struggle to adjust initially to Anderson who really is in exceptional form on our pitches.

The reason for why the line may be too high is the reason many large lines are value to sell. People are afraid to sell in fear of the WCS so they notch the line up.

1 unit per point sell @ 355
Realistic maximum loss 80pts
Realistic maximum win 70pts
Expected win 1x30=30pts

Feel free to question anything!

[bookiebasher]

Excellant post and analysis.

Wish you all the best on this.

[The Camel]

Who do you work for mate?

What other forum do you go on?

[Phil_Magroin]

Who do you work for mate?

What other forum do you go on?

Hi Camel,

I'd prefer not to say if that's ok although I tried to pm you (didn't work). Some of the work is confidential so it's easier this way. I just hope people like the write ups and I'll be searching for the next one. On 2+2 btw - don't post much anymore.

[Sheriff Fatman]

Who do you work for mate?

What other forum do you go on?

Hi Camel,

I'd prefer not to say if that's ok although I tried to pm you (didn't work). Some of the work is confidential so it's easier this way. I just hope people like the write ups and I'll be searching for the next one. On 2+2 btw - don't post much anymore.

PMs should function after 10 posts so you should be OK to try again now.

Will read with interest as I'll be spread betting on the NFL again this season.

[Phil_Magroin]

Who do you work for mate?

What other forum do you go on?

Hi Camel,

I'd prefer not to say if that's ok although I tried to pm you (didn't work). Some of the work is confidential so it's easier this way. I just hope people like the write ups and I'll be searching for the next one. On 2+2 btw - don't post much anymore.

PMs should function after 10 posts so you should be OK to try again now.

Will read with interest as I'll be spread betting on the NFL again this season.

It worked it now.

Great. I will be specifically looking at player performances for the NFL where stats do not create the correct line due to the idiosyncrasies of the player match-ups. I'm just a huge sports fan so looking at bets from a granular level makes it even more enjoyable.

[Karabiner]

Good luck with this, I'll be following with interest.

[RickBFA]

Yep,good luck, looks like the makings of a great thread.

[TightEnd]

very interesting first bet

FWIW its weather related too isn't it?

More rain, interrupted play = less runs all round, and less bowling for Kallis as Steyn/Philander/Morkel will take the overs. More catches in the slips too

Decent weather from next Thursday sees higher scores in the series, Kallis building innings', and him being required as the fifth bowler more

I gather the jetstream that has murdered our cricket summer clears off North after next Saturday, whether this leads to more favourable batting conditions (thus in my opinion putting the Kallis unders bet at risk) will be interesting to see