Sunday 500. TT awkward spot vs Strong opening range.

[LonOhRay]

15999/call as default folding to biz and visser if they wake up behind

I'm sure you wouldn't have been on too many tables by this time so gameflow is hugely important rather than deciding from a HH

[TL900]

I agree that gameflop would be pretty important.

I feel like alot of you have jumped on the 3b/call wagon without actually considering his 4b jam range.

I think his opening range is gona be like 88+ ATs+ AQo+ KQs (hes opened UTG off 20bigs, gota be pretty strong right, player dependant obv this might be a little tighter/wider than some but looks like a fair range)

I think his 4b jamming range is gona be TT+ AK, stove how well TT does vs that range.

I personally think 3b/c is the worst option. I understand that some people don't think we should ever 3b/f value hands, I used to think the same but there are definitely situations you can do it now. This being one of them, when you actually think about his ranges and how we do against them. I think if your contemplating 3b/calling 88-99 here your just mental. Im not happy about 3b/calling JJ but I prob just about do it.

[action man]

you've given him a crazy tight opening range utg into these stacks in this 500f

the range youve assigned is exactly the reason he can be pretty wide here

[the rage]

I agree that gameflop would be pretty important.



I think his opening range is gona be like 88+ ATs+ AQo+ KQs (hes opened UTG off 20bigs, gota be pretty strong right, player dependant obv this might be a little tighter/wider than some but looks like a fair range)

I think his 4b jamming range is gona be TT+ AK, stove how well TT does vs that range.



I'm just theorising again ,but, even with these tight ranges, it would still be mathematically correct to 3 bet call (assuming that villian does not flat hero's 3 bet) as villian would be folding to the 3 bet almost 50% of the time and hero would win just over 34% of the time (of the 50.72% that the hand goes to showdown), making  the 3 bet call +EV, all be it a very marginal one

[NigDawG]

3b/c > fold > peel > 3b/f for me

[skolsuper]

A 4b shove will be roughly 62k into 42k and we will have ~35% equity vs villain's shoving range (which I agree with Tom will be roughly TT+ AK with maybe AQs?) so the call after 3betting is -EV in a vacuum. It might be a 3b/c in some Nash equilibrium strategy but I don't think we need to get into that in the Sunday 500. Any argument for 3b/f TT is an equally good argument for 3b/f any 2 cards, which may or may not be profitable depending on how wide we think he's opening. Something like 8% (88+ AJo+ QJs KJs+ ATs+) would mean he folds the requisite 50% of the time, and this seems on the loose side, so I would say fold > 3b/f > 3b/c > call.

[George2Loose]

Why is 3 bet/folding better than peeling? 3 bet folding seems really bad

[action man]

if you can't 3bet call this profitably then you simply arent 3betting enough. last i'll say on the thread.

[skolsuper]

if you can't 3bet call this profitably then you simply arent 3betting enough. last i'll say on the thread.

So you think villain's 4b shove range is..?

Why is 3 bet/folding better than peeling? 3 bet folding seems really bad

I'm sorry I don't know why I ranked the other options. It should say "fold > other stuff".

[Oxford_HRV]

what's the reasoning behind calling being such a bad option and seeing this flop in position?
if the guy has a strong range, then as I said you have to be 3bet folding this spot, therefore you're never raising for value and just want him to fold!?

[Boba Fett]

what's the reasoning behind calling being such a bad option and seeing this flop in position?
if the guy has a strong range, then as I said you have to be 3bet folding this spot, therefore you're never raising for value and just want him to fold!?

If the guy has a strong range he still has a strong range postflop.  You're effectively setmining against a 20bb stack or hoping the good reg makes a huge mistake postflop and lets you win the pot somehow.  If you're peeling just to get it in on a small flop you're better off just 3b/calling pre.

If we havent been 3betting enough to make 3b/call a good option, will a cib-3b induce a wider 4b shove range from the opener to make cib/call a decent option?

[Doobs]

if you can't 3bet call this profitably then you simply arent 3betting enough. last i'll say on the thread.

So you think villain's 4b shove range is..?

It really depends on game flow,  but it would be impossible to come up with a realistic range that was less favourable to our argument than the TT+ and AK that you presented.  

Some players would be happy to 4 bet shove with 88+ and AQ+, but I think Trigg is saying if you 3 bet people enough they can spew off with all kinds of stuff.  22 and 98s wouldn't be impossible with enough history or enough 3 bets in this game, or if they think you are the type who 3 bet folds too much.  

By contrast you see some others folding AK and JJ.

I don't recognise the opponent here FWIW.

The reality is that 88 is a less likely shove than TT and JJ and AK are less likely folds,  and 3 bet calling can be profitable for Trigg, but unprofitable for someone else, but simple ranges don't capture this.

Probably should construct something beyond stove to allow for this, but would struggle to do so on my phone.  Does the thing pleno was spamming go beyond stove here.  

Happy to 3 bet call here, but don't think alternatives are that terrible either.

[skolsuper]

if you can't 3bet call this profitably then you simply arent 3betting enough. last i'll say on the thread.

So you think villain's 4b shove range is..?

It really depends on game flow,  but it would be impossible to come up with a realistic range that was less favourable to our argument than the TT+ and AK that you presented.  I'm not sure I 100% understand what this means, but I can assure you I'm not just arguing for the sake of it, trigg has played 3700 tournaments on stars this year and I would quite like to know what he thinks the average reg's opening and shoving ranges here are, but if he doesn't want to talk about it I can't make him

Some players would be happy to 4 bet shove with 88+ and AQ+, but I think Trigg is saying if you 3 bet people enough they can spew off with all kinds of stuff.  22 and 98s wouldn't be impossible with enough history or enough 3 bets in this game, or if they think you are the type who 3 bet folds too much.  89s and certainly 22 won't be in the villain's opening range to shove with. Villain is opening UTG off 20bbs, i.e. he's putting in 10% of his stack with 8 people left to act, this is not a spot where opening light is a good idea. I agree with fett that something like 13,500 might induce villain to shove 80-100% of his opening range, meaning we get it in 50-52% equity with the dead money from the blinds and antes and maybe a little fold equity. This however would make it a bad spot to bluff in a vacuum (although the occasional bluff might be part of an overall strategy, again I don't think you need to be that balanced in mtts) so this would make trigg's "not 3betting enough" idea even worse as all extra 3bets would be bad bluffs.

By contrast you see some others folding AK and JJ. I agree this is a possibility.

I don't recognise the opponent here FWIW.

The reality is that 88 is a less likely shove than TT and JJ and AK are less likely folds,  and 3 bet calling can be profitable for Trigg, but unprofitable for someone else, but simple ranges don't capture this.

Probably should construct something beyond stove to allow for this, but would struggle to do so on my phone.  Does the thing pleno was spamming go beyond stove here.  

Happy to 3 bet call here, but don't think alternatives are that terrible either.

Have annotated your post as I had 2 separate points I wanted to reply to. 3rd and more general point, mainly aimed at George and Trigg, is that yeah 3b/f with TT seems terrible and goes completely against our autopilot rules, but you shouldn't be on autopilot when analysing hands after a session and actually breaking down the numbers it looks to me like it is better than 3b/c, happy to be proved wrong btw just nobody is suggesting real numbers to do that. Ideally the aim is to tweak our autopilot and maybe eventually play these spots a little better. I hear a lot of people complain that nits somehow get the lot despite not ever doing anything special, and I think this sort of thing is where the difference lies, possibly the fact that stato is prepared to think a little deeper in spots like this is why he's up over $100k on stars this year.

[action man]

James, i can't give you a precise range in this spot, it differs from spot to spot, depending on a few intangibles that we can't use stove for. You have your opening utg ranges for regs in this spot way off btw. And anyone who plays this mtt on a regular basis will agree. Of course this also depends on gameflow and how passive the table has been and the opponents image at the time of the open. If we are folding TT here to this open, and other players are doing likewise, do you see how much we can widen our range utg off 20bb?

In a vacuum id say that the opening range of a reg in this spot would be something like 55+ QJss+ A9s AT+  you seem to have overlooked the stacks which he is opening into, Only 3 players can be expected to jam over our open which means the likelihood of it getting through increases which again widens the opening range up. Obv the bb could set us in, being only 20bb effective but its a lot trickier to 3bet bluff this spot on a reg heavy table with players behind to act. If there were 4/5   12-20bb stacks on the table it should tighten utg's opening range sufficiently that with the TT a better case for a fold is made.

On the subject of his 4bet shove range, its all down to OP's image on how wide this range can be, and a range can't be given accurately unless we are aware of these uncertainties. If OP has been playing Tag/nitty and 3bets to say 20k + then i agree the 4bet jam range is going to be/should be really tight.

I think you have underestimated how spewy players are though James, stick a solid month grinding on stars and i think you might change your opinion. Also ive spoken to 6/7 people on skype including middy, marc, bramm and all agree villain in the hand is a bad reg.

[skolsuper]

What does villain being a "bad reg" mean? He plays too loose? Too tight? Raises too loose and shoves too tight?

If we raise utg 9-handed and everyone else only plays JJ+ AK (3.5% range), they will find one of those hands between them upwards of 25% of the time, before taking into account any card-removal effects. Obviously most people can't be trusted to fold TT and there are plenty of eggs around who still peel all sorts, making a steal from utg off 20bbs an absolutely terrible idea imo. Certainly I'd say including 55-77 and maybe even 88 is burning money, but for this particular villain or the population of Sunday 500 players they might all be making loose opens and it's a good spot to be 3b bluffing people, I don't know.

Wrt the 4bet, it's not that hard to come up with a range, you can only shove the hands you open and obviously we're going broke with premiums so there's not that big a range of things it can be. What would you be shoving with if you opened utg and got 3bet by the cutoff, in a vacuum?