NFL 2012/13 General Discussion and Betting Thread

[redarmi]

Think NYG are a bet tonight if the line goes to -3 10/11 which it is not far off now.

[bobby1]

Think NYG are a bet tonight if the line goes to -3 10/11 which it is not far off now.

Superbowl winners have a great record str8 up in the next season opener too, not sure a-t-s. I think I read somewhere they have won every opening game the next season since 2004.

[TightEnd]

thought it was a bet at 4 tbh

Witten almost certainly not playing, OL completely unproven against one of the best pass rushes

No idea where the move to Dallas has come from


Should be a good game, with replacement refs too. Prepare for a bit of controversy too

[redarmi]

Think NYG are a bet tonight if the line goes to -3 10/11 which it is not far off now.

Superbowl winners have a great record str8 up in the next season opener too, not sure a-t-s. I think I read somewhere they have won every opening game the next season since 2004.

Used to be the opposite ATS but that angle has been eliminated recently and, if anything, the dog in these games are overbet now although these angles tend to be based on ludicrously small samples anyway.  Assuming a home advantage of 2.5-3 I can't have that Dallas are anything close to the team NYG are on a neutral field and they are almost always overrated.

[TightEnd]

Dallas have beaten the Giants the last six opening game encounters

and the Dallas defense should be for real this year

I do think the problems in blocking on the offense make NYG favourites to beat the spread today, but do not agree at all that there is much between the teams over the season

As last year, these are 7-9 to 10-6, 11-5 tops teams that will beat each other all year in the NFC East

[Tal]

Go on then, Tighty. Box of Thornton's chocolates says the Jacksonville Jaguars don't win 4 games this season. If they go 4-12 or better, it's yours. Something in the £10 region for a bit of fun. I recognise you know more than I on these matters, but I am prepared to display the extent of my degen-iness ( )


They win the first four games and I look silly. Hopefully it's a fun sweat tho.

[TightEnd]

Go on then, Tighty. Box of Thornton's chocolates says the Jacksonville Jaguars don't win 4 games this season. If they go 4-12 or better, it's yours. Something in the £10 region for a bit of fun. I recognise you know more than I on these matters, but I am prepared to display the extent of my degen-iness ( )


They win the first four games and I look silly. Hopefully it's a fun sweat tho.

ok fine

I think I'd rather be on your side, lol, but fine

(ie more chance of 2-14 than 6-10!)

[Josedinho]

Will probs have sky back in a month or so but in the meantime a game on BBC is good news.

[Tal]

Go on then, Tighty. Box of Thornton's chocolates says the Jacksonville Jaguars don't win 4 games this season. If they go 4-12 or better, it's yours. Something in the £10 region for a bit of fun. I recognise you know more than I on these matters, but I am prepared to display the extent of my degen-iness ( )


They win the first four games and I look silly. Hopefully it's a fun sweat tho.

ok fine

I think I'd rather be on your side, lol, but fine

(ie more chance of 2-14 than 6-10!)

Don't mind if you want to make 3-13 no bet. Just put the line there because you had said 4-12 or 5-11. Up to you.

[The Camel]

Dallas have beaten the Giants the last six opening game encounters

and the Dallas defense should be for real this year

I do think the problems in blocking on the offense make NYG favourites to beat the spread today, but do not agree at all that there is much between the teams over the season

As last year, these are 7-9 to 10-6, 11-5 tops teams that will beat each other all year in the NFC East

I hate past head to head record more than any other as a stat to base any sort of bet on.

(I know you aren't in this case, but just saying)

[Sheriff Fatman]

OK, the original plan was to put up a team by team summary on here ahead of the season starting.  It wasn't meant to be an in-depth analysis as such, but it's a good way for me to figure out what I think about everything and work out where the knowledge gaps were.  The trouble is the first division I did took so long that I've run out of time before the 1st game.  Thankfully I started with the division where tonight's game will be played, so I can still get this done, but I've put this one up for now ahead of the big kickoff.

It's planned to be done by division, with teams listed by where I think they'll finish based on gut feel.  I suspect that, when I try to do game by game projections, I'll end up with a different result, but part of the exercise for me is to see how different this looks.

It's up there to be shot at, or at least encourage some debate, and is written largely from memory.  It'll be an interesting exercise for me to look back at the end of the season and see how wrong I was.  The scary thing is that, as long as this one turned out, I don't feel like I've even scratched the surface on what I wanted to say!

Flame away people:

NFC East

Prediction: 1) Eagles 2) Giants (Wild Card, possibly) 3) Redskins 4) Cowboys (pretty much a coin flip for 3&4 and I expect them to end up with very similar records)

Philadelphia Eagles - Not just a homer pick (if anything my expectations tend to be lower than the consensus on them) but they seem to me to have done a good job of addressing the glaring issues from last season.  The 'dream-team' tag was always going to be a recipe for disaster (thanks a lot Vince Young!) and trying to fit in a lot of big free agency signings in a short space of time just didn't work.  Throw in unresolved contract issues with DeSean Jackson (who played like someone trying to avoid injury for pretty much the whole season) and we did well to scrape to an 8-8 record in the end. The obvious hole was the porous defence, and Andy Reid made a huge call in keeping Juan Castillo as DC over the close-season, despite late season improvement.  If that backfires, it'll cost Reid his job and the notorious fan-base will show very little patience with Castillo this season.

This pre-season, by contrast, has been a largely under the radar exercise in addressing the obvious needs and getting a roster that is as deep as any in the NFL.  With one notable exception, the roster looks largely capable of dealing with the inevitable injuries.  Losing Jason Peters, arguably the best Left Tackle in the NFL last season to an achilles injury was a blow, and replacement Demetress Bell has struggled so much that he's missed out on the starting job in Week 1 to King Dunlap.  However, there's depth throughout the roster, and no loudmouthed backup QB bringing unwanted attention this season.  Linebacker was the most glaring need to be addressed, and bringing in veteran DeMeco Ryans will do a lot to bolster things.  Trading up to get Fletcher Cox at DT was also an astute piece of business.

The obvious exception to the above is QB, and the Eagles' season will largely depend on Michael Vick staying healthy (and two separate injuries in pre-season doesn't bring great confidence).  Rookie Nick Foles shone enough to win the backup job, and Trent Edwards did enough to allow Mike Kafka to be waived.  They'll be able to cover the inevitable absence of 1-2 games, but if the Eagles are to be serious Superbowl contenders then Vick has to be there for the majority of the season.  DJax also needs to contribute and show that he's put the petulant child act behind him now that he has his long-term contract.

At RB, LeSean McCoy is a stud, but he was used heavily last season (probably too much) but there's solid, albeit inexperienced, talent behind him now who can take some of the workload away.

Andy Reid won a lot of sympathy when his son died during training camp, but memories are short in Philly, and there'll be little sympathy shown by the fans if expectations aren't met this season.  However, I'm quietly confident that we have the tools to win the division and get close in the play-off lottery this season.  I sure hope so, because this is Season 31 for me of hoping for an Eagles Superbowl win!

New York Giants - What a story last year.  Mediocre for most of the regular season (only confirming their place as divisional champions, with a 9-7 record, in the last game) and then inspired (largely by Eli Manning, who proved he deserves to be recognised as an elite QB) in the post-season ending up as deserved Superbowl champions.  However, I think this season will prove to be more challenging.  First of all, their schedule is HORRENDOUS.  In addition to the 6 inter-divisional battles, the NFC East face teams from the AFC North (hello Ravens, Steelers, Bengals) and NFC South (hello Saints, Falcons, Panthers) this season the schedule was bad enough but, as divisional winners, they then get to play the other two divisional NFC winners from last season (hello Packers and 49ers!)  The only inviting looking fixtures on the schedule look to be Cleveland and Tampa Bay.

In addition, I think they've lost a little on offense with the loss of Brandon Jacobs and Mario Manningham, both to the 49ers, and they're relying on their top 2 draft picks, David Wilson and Reuben Randle, to fill the gaps.  In time I think they will, but this season might be a bit too soon for them to be fully effective.  They unearthed a genuine star last year in Victor Cruz, but he played much of the time from the slot as the No 3 receiver last year and, with the loss of Manningham, he's now clearly the No2 wideout and will command much more attention from defences from the outset as a result.  Nicks has been carrying an injury too, so I think there's much less WR depth this time around, and a whole load more expectation.  The defence will still be solid though and they'll be there or thereabouts with regard to the playoffs, possibly via a Wildcard.  However, all teams in the NFC East have an uphill struggle with regard to getting wild-card spots as the division is so evenly matched compared to many of the others, and the schedule this year make it's doubly difficult to get a good enough record.

Washington Redskins - They made a very bold step, whilst other teams dithered, in trading up in the draft to get their franchise QB, and much will depend on how RG3's rookie season performance.  However, he has all the tools to be successful (think Michael Vick v2 with more natural pocket passing abilities) and the NFL is no longer a place where rookie QBs can't make an immediate impact.  Offensively, the big question marks are who the key skill position players will be, with the usual Shanahanegans going on at both RB and WR.  Pierre Garcon is about the only name we can lock down with any confidence at the moment.  However, ultimately, I think they'll get a decent job done with a rotation of players and they certainly have less of a hurdle this season than they did last year with the Rex Grossman/John Beck QB 'controversy' (the answer being neither of them were good enough, although RG1 remains as the primary backup)  Defensively, the Redskins will be sound and won't give up huge points in too many games.  I think they'll cause a few surprises, although they're probably still a year or two away from becoming a genuine contender in the division.  They're a much better team than last season, when they did the double over the Giants, and on their day can surprise anyone.

Dallas Cowboys - Controversial choice to have them 4th (I can already hear Tighty's fingers pounding on the keyboard in retort!) but I think they've gone backwards this close season, and were mediocre at best last year.  The weight of expectaton doesn't help, particularly when much of it comes from their owner!  They made an interesting move bringing in Kyle Orton to back up Romo, and probably have the best backup QB in the NFL this season.  However, this might bring more pressure to bear on Romo as the season progresses, and he's a player who's always under the microscope anyway (undoubtedly a battler though, particularly when playing with broken ribs and a punctured lung at one stage last season).  The WRs have issues too, with Miles Austin (injury) and Dez Bryant (idiocy) both being excellent on their day, but neither give confidence of completing a full season.  They relied heavily on Laurent Robinson to fill the gap last year (and he played so well he earned a big money contract with the Jaguars) and this time it might come down to the likes of Kevin Ogletree to deliver.

They do have a great RB in DeMarco Murray, if he can stay healthy, but the key issue is whether the weak looking O-line can create the holes for him.  Witten is a dynamic TE, but is recovering from a ruptured spleen so how healthy will he prove to be.

Defensively, they spent their top draft pick on Morris Claiborne to improve their secondary, who was generally considered a sure-fire prospect when stepping up to the NFL (despite his score of 4 out of 50 on the Wonderlic test) and still have stars like DeMarcus Ware, but need to perform better as a defensive unit than they did last season.  Rob Ryan might come under some pressure as DC if they don't.

They'll be close to a .500 record this season (no worse than 6-10), but the problem is that this could still leave them bottom of the pile in the division.  I think it'll be close between them and the Redskins as to who gets 3rd place.

More divisions to follow as and when I can get them down...

[TightEnd]

Yup

I was rather poorly making the point that in this division each year 3 of the teams are usually pretty evenly matched, so taking exception to redarmi's comment "I can't have that Dallas are anything close to the team NYG are on a neutral field " I can, and the other teams in the division too.

The Redskins have been poor for five years, could improve rapidly this year with their first franchise QB in ages, so make that all four teams capable of beating each other

Griffin is said, I saw yesterday, to run like Vick, throw it like Manning and have Brady's brain..that can turn round a team quick (see Newton/Panthers for something similar)

[TightEnd]

Must resist Sheriff, must resist. I think we'll be better than that

[  ] Good luck to the Eagles this season

:-0)

[Sheriff Fatman]

Must resist Sheriff, must resist. I think we'll be better than that

[  ] Good luck to the Eagles this season

:-0)

There must be a prop bet in there somewhere, but did genuinely try to take all bias out of this (I wrote most of this yesterday, and had abandoned it as an exercise, but the Facebook banter prompted me to resurrect it!  Only 7 more divisions to go before Sunday, but I really think there's some value in seeing how shockingly bad my predictions turn out at the end of the season.

[TightEnd]

Must resist Sheriff, must resist. I think we'll be better than that

[  ] Good luck to the Eagles this season

:-0)

There must be a prop bet in there somewhere, but did genuinely try to take all bias out of this (I wrote most of this yesterday, and had abandoned it as an exercise, but the Facebook banter prompted me to resurrect it!  Only 7 more divisions to go before Sunday, but I really think there's some value in seeing how shockingly bad my predictions turn out at the end of the season.

Agree, always great fun (and often very wrong by all the experts)

Enjoyed reading it.