NFL 2012/13 General Discussion and Betting Thread

[Tal]

AFC North

Ravens - squeak into top spot by winning the head to heads. Just.
Steelers - 80th season. current DL played in all 80. Big Ben needs to pull even more this year to top the Ravens.
Bengals - funnest team to watch in the division but def third
Browns - rival the Jags and Dolphins for number one draft pick next season.

[Tal]

First montage. Fitzpatrick sacked. Marv.

[Longy]

Seeing a few tweets quoted on here.

Good people to follow NFL related?

[redarmi]

When i say I can't have them as anything near Dallas on a neutral field you might be taking it more extremely than I meant.  For sure they are within a couple of points of each other but there is no doubt in my mind that assessing the division now the Giants have to be considered the better team.  I made this game NYG -5.5 the difference between 3.5 and 5.5 isn't enough for me to make it a bet but at -3 10/11 it is a decent bet for me....the difference between 3 and 3.5 is that big.

Understood

the game being scored in 3's and 7's makes the actually 0.5 point movement in a spread around 3,4,5 important, right?

On and off 3 is the most important move followed by on and off of 7.  Everything else is less important although 10 has some value.

[Sheriff Fatman]

I'd still be cautious about Witten's impact tonight, even though he's declared active.  He might end up being more of a decoy than his usual pass-catching self if he's not fully fit, which is what seems to happen with a lot of questionably fit Tight Ends.

That is one serious injury to overcome in a relatively short time-frame.

[Sheriff Fatman]

NFC North

Prediction: 1) Packers 2) Bears 3) Lions 4) Vikings

Green Bay Packers - It's easy to forget nowadays that for most of last season, the consensus view wasn't whether the Packers would win the Superbowl again, but whether they'd achieve a perfect season.  Every weekly power ranking had them as the undisputed No1 team, and rightly so for much of the year.  However, things started to unravel at the business end of the season with a shock loss to the Chiefs and suddenly there were chinks in the armour for everyone to have hope.  Eventually, they lost to the Giants in the play-offs by which time no-one was genuinely shocked anymore.

However, they are undisputedly a quality outfit, and will be determined to put things right this season and this should mean they run out comfortable winners in the division once again.

In Aaron Rodgers, they have the most complete player in the NFL at the moment, and he will no doubt shine once again in launching a devastating passing game upon all and sundry.  Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, and a talented supporting cast will have a field day.  The difference this season is that the Packers may also have a running game to complement things.  Doubts over James Starks' fitness led them to bring in Cedric Benson in free agency, in addition to the rehabilitated Alex Green and talented Brandon Saine, and they also made a significant move in final roster cuts in electing to keep Starks in the final 53, when many had predicted he would be released.  They've not relied heavily on having a run game in recent seasons (and haven't really needed to) but Benson is a true 'pound the rock' RB, the likes of which they've not had available in that time, and he'll help bring more balance to the offense.

The issue once again will be the defence (the secondary was particularly terrible last year, but the Packers just relied on being able to outscore the other team) and this was heavily addressed during the draft.  The question is how quickly this will impact the team, but if it takes time the Packers will still be able to pile points at will on most teams and win a lot of shootouts.  Impossible to ignore them in the final shake up, and they no longer have the pressure of being the defending champions.

Chicago Bears - The Bears were chugging along nicely after a difficult start last season and starting to look like genuine contenders (albeit one of three in the same division!) when Jay Cutler got injured and the season fell apart.  Caleb Hanie showed that his heroics in the NFC Championship game the previous season were largely a one-off and matters weren't helped by injuries to Matt Forte and Johnny Knox (still one of the worst sports injury moments I've ever witnessed - I'm amazed he's still walking!)

This time around they have Cutler back, Michael Bush from the Raiders as a 2nd RB behind Forte (who's been in contract dispute for a lot of the pre-season but is now back in the fold), and have 2 new weapons at WR in Brandon Marshall from the Dolphins and Alshon Jeffery via the draft.  Jason Campbell is a solid backup QB so there's cover in place should Cutler go down again.  The offence might also benefit from Mike Martz no longer being there as OC and might at least save Cutler from a few unnecessary sacks this year.

The bigger questions are around the Defence, especially with Brian Erlacher coming off knee surgery.  If he's not 100% then it'll be a major blow for the unit, but the Bears overall should be a much stronger outfit this season.  They'll need to be, given that they have the Packers and Lions to contend with to make the post-season!

Detroit Lions - Very tough call to put them in 3rd place as they were one of the highlights of last season for me, and that decision is largely down to the improved strength of the Bears, rather than a significant weakness of the Lions.  However, I think they made a serious error of judgement in not strengthening the Running Back position and they look desperately thin on the ground in the running game.  Jahvid Best starts on the PUP list, following numerous issues with concussions, and I'd be surprised if he plays again (still not being fully recovered from a concussion that occurred almost a year ago is not a good place to be for an RB).  Mikel LeShoure could be explosive once he serves his drug-related suspension, but no-one really knows yet how good he is and in the meantime they're relying on Kevin Smith and Keiland Williams.

Matt Stafford did prove he could get through a season without injury though, and Calvin Johnson is as unplayable as a Wide Receiver gets, so the passing game will be devastating again through both the WR corps and the 2 main Tight Ends, Pettigrew and Scheffler.  However, they're even more one-dimension than the Packers in their reliance on the pass.

Defensively, they are as scary as they come, but Ndamokung Suh needs to get back to his rookie year form and cut out the reputation for being a dirty player, rather than a hard one.  If he does, then they have the potential to repeat last seasons play-off run (even from 3rd place in the division) but there's a few too many question marks about them for me this season and I think they'll take a slight step back.

Minnesota Vikings - Very disappointing performance last season, and they're in a nightmare spot in this division.  They rely so heavily on Adrian Peterson, who is coming off ACL injury and will have a question mark over his fitness for the whole season.  Christian Ponder did some good things, and should benefit from the experience and also having a training camp this season (last year's was ruled out via the players' holdout).  The Vikings used their high draft pick on Matt Kahlil at LT, and he'll be a solid pick and will immediately improve Ponder's protection but you look at their depth chart and, one or two players aside, are left thinking that there isn't much there to get excited about.

Defensively, Jared Allen is a sack machine, and the defense overall will keep them in many games, but I'm struggling to see how they'll score enough points in enough games to prevent another season as one of the bottom feeders in the league.  They'll be a contender for the 1st overall pick, I think, although my gut feel is that there's worse out there.

[TightEnd]

So the experts didn't start too well.

Click to see full-size image.

 

[tikay]

If I wanted to find up to date stats, from, say, last night's game, where is the best place to look, please?

[TightEnd]

If I wanted to find up to date stats, from, say, last night's game, where is the best place to look, please?

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/nfl/gameflash/2012/09/05/4893/index.html#boxscore

Was a lot of fun

[TightEnd]

AFC North

Ravens - squeak into top spot by winning the head to heads. Just.
Steelers - 80th season. current DL played in all 80. Big Ben needs to pull even more this year to top the Ravens.
Bengals - funnest team to watch in the division but def third
Browns - rival the Jags and Dolphins for number one draft pick next season.

Bengals will win the division

Terrific defense

Dalton in yr 2 with emerging superstars A J Green and Gresham


Ravens ageing on Defense, minus Suggs. Won't be as stingey this year.

[TheChipPrince]

Is home advantage about the same as in football?

or not so much?

[TightEnd]

Is home advantage about the same as in football?

or not so much?

generally less, though some stadiums have more rabid fans than others

Major factor is also different playing conditions...outdoors/indoors, turf or carpet

[tikay]

Is home advantage about the same as in football?

or not so much?

generally less, though some stadiums have more rabid fans than others

Major factor is also different playing conditions...outdoors/indoors, turf or carpet

Carpet?

[TightEnd]

Is home advantage about the same as in football?

or not so much?

generally less, though some stadiums have more rabid fans than others

Major factor is also different playing conditions...outdoors/indoors, turf or carpet

Carpet?

Astroturf, or variants

[tikay]

If I wanted to find up to date stats, from, say, last night's game, where is the best place to look, please?

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/nfl/gameflash/2012/09/05/4893/index.html#boxscore

Was a lot of fun

Superb

Thanks Rich, that was exactly what I needed.