NFL 2012/13 General Discussion and Betting Thread

[Sheriff Fatman]

Andy Reid Head Coach of the Chiefs......

Does this mean Vick will move with him? Chiefs need a QB, right?

Kolb might be a more likely candidate if the Cards decide to bail on him.  But for an ill-timed concussion in his first game as the new Eagles' franchise QB, he'd probably still be their starting QB now (scary thought, with hindsight) but Reid does rate him highly.

[TightEnd]

Andy Reid Head Coach of the Chiefs......

Does this mean Vick will move with him? Chiefs need a QB, right?

Chiefs should pick Geno Smith first

Already the beginnings of a team there, with Jamaal Charles to run it, and an ok defense when everyone's fit (Dorsey, Eric Berry etc)

Pick a young QB, add some more talent on a two draft view and he should turn them round...


as Fisher is beginning to do with the Rams, for example

Of course having a Luck or an RG3 turns around a franchise very quickly, and no one is saying its a good year to want a QB, so in that sense the Chiefs are a bit unlucky to picking at the top of the draft this year


A good year for a team like the Eagles, who need OL desperately. Been taking a peek at Texas A and M in the Cotton bowl tonight and they have a tackle called Luke Joeckel who is terrific, ideal pick for the Eagles at 4 this draft

 

[Longy]

Re Chip Kelly, having followed Oregon the last couple of years I know a bit about him and am nothing but impressed. He is a very smart guy, not only a great innovator with his hurry spread offence but "gets" in game mathematical decisons that are missed every week in the NFL (and college).

No doubt he is massive risk/reward for a franchise, no one knows whether his skills will transfer to the pro game but if they do he will be a revelation in the NFL. 

For his sake and that of a franchise he needs as much control as possible imo, there is no point in going to this half cock. It either pays off massively or it doesn't, thats why despite the lack of Kellyesque personel at Cleveland a young talented team with an understanding ownership is perfect.

I think Carolina are missing a big trick not going for Kelly here (sacking Riveria) he is perfect for Cam and their running back core.

I for one am excited to see him get a shot as it should be fun for everyone to see how it works out especially if he is a success*. Of course please stay at Oregon Chip, the ducks are guarenteed national contender for the forseeable future under him.


*If you have never watched Oregon play, you should it is easily the most spectator attractive offensive team you are likely to see.

[redarmi]

Hadn't heard of that rule before, seems a little unfair if I understand correctly. Happened once before in 2004 in a Texas game. Be a bit sick to loose a game by a point in those circumstances. Anyway does anyone think that Notre Dame have a chance against Bama? Could Bama beat the Chiefs!

Every ex-player, analyst, etc who's opinion I respect always speak in similar terms.  The best college teams would be a 20-30pt dog against the worst NFL teams.

Would wager my net worth on any NFL team against any college team at -30, assuming it was a competitive game.

I'm sure there'd be plenty who would do the same, which is why it's such a fascinating debate, but you're really just taking a view on the dynamics of a game having such a skewed line (i.e. one that you'd only see for a college game, but never in the NFL itself).

I've never done any analysis on it, but I've often wondered if betting blind on the dog in any NFL game with a massive line (which for the NFL I'd take to be >14pts) would be profitable long-term.  In college football the same rationale would probably apply to lines that are something like 35pts plus and the argument gets stronger as at that stage you're getting firmly in the the realm of game dynamics (i.e. whether teams would carry on running up the score) at that point.

It's a tough one though as to where you could set a balanced line for a game like that.  30pts is at the extreme end, undoubtedly, but it's hard to see how anyone could realistically set anything below 20pts and not expect to get the NFL side get massive action.

Whilst I think there is merit in this for the NFL there is definitely not in college.  From a betting perspective it is just a totally different game and some of the better teams just annihilate opponents.  When I first started betting college that was a mistake I made and I think I lost three straight years by being too stubborn about it.  Now my approach is similar to my NBA approach which is to look for the good teams with an expectation they will cover then look for compelling reasons why they won't.

[WPIL]

Is there not a chance that Chip Kelly will stay at the Ducks, not sure if his offence will work in the NFL unless he had a Cam Newton or RG3 and this years crop of college QBs is not as good as last years (will it be as good as the class of 83) and its going to be at least a 2 year wait for Jonny M.
Some coaches are just better suited to college for example Steve Spurrier and Chip has a chance to build a dynasty up there in rainy Oregon, remember they were only 1 loss away from a national championship game, which they would have been favourites in.
I was tounge in cheek about Alabama beating the Chiefs, it would be down to the physical skills and the coaching, especially on the lines and in the secondary that would me it lopsided for the NFL team especially in today's NFL where there are no truly bad teams.

[bobby1]

Andy Reid just about confirmed as the new Kansas City coach, not much of a fan tbh but that does look a good fit to me. If they could find any kind of serviceable QB  and get in some wr to help Bowe then they could be a team that could turn around a terrible season into a winning season next year. I wonder if Mike Vick might end up there too given he would fit the profile of an upgrade at QB and have knowledge of what the new coach likes to do. Vick backed up by a Kyle Orton type might do the job given the new coach and both those QB's have loads of experience of outdoor iffy weather teams.

[Longy]

Good appointment by the Chiefs , he was the best candidate available imo.

Any opinions on who they pick 1st in the draft, there isn't a Luck or RG3 in the draft. Geno Smith from West Virginia??

[bobby1]

Good appointment by the Chiefs , he was the best candidate available imo.

Any opinions on who they pick 1st in the draft, there isn't a Luck or RG3 in the draft. Geno Smith from West Virginia??

I think they will look for a proven QB which might rule out drafting one to start str8 away, would it be right to say there are no stand out QB's in the draft this year?

They have to draft on O because defensively they are ok, the turnover numbers that the O gave away this year just kept putting the D under more pressure which made their numbers look much worse. I have no idea about the individual players tho, we need some Tighty inside info.

[TightEnd]

see my post above Phil

They should draft Geno Smith

Definitely draft O, a QB and receivers.


Not a good year to want a Luck or RG3 though, the best players in the draft are DL, OL types

so a good year if you need big uglies

[Longy]

Whoops I forgot you posted that last night, Tighty?

How do you see the first few picks in the draft going? I know you like to follow this in detail!

[bobby1]

cheers Rich, threads move so fast when you are popping on a few times a day. I will check out Geno Smith.thanks

[TightEnd]

Whoops I forgot you posted that last night, Tighty?

How do you see the first few picks in the draft going? I know you like to follow this in detail!

not sure yet but names in the top 5 should be

Star Lotulei from utah a monster DT

DT's like Suh etc are at a premium because there aren't many 350lb plus monsters that can move quickly and anchor a defense (eg Haloti Ngata)

Luke Joeckel from Texas A and M a really good Left Tackle. Eagles for him. Need meets draft slot

quite a few pass rushers around too

not a good year for QBs....

[Sheriff Fatman]

If Peters is healthy again next year then we have the best LT in the NFL so would be very surprised if we used the high draft pick on one unless he can switch.

Different story if he struggles to recover as Demetress Bell and King Dunlap hardly set the world alight in his place.

[TightEnd]

If Peters is healthy again next year then we have the best LT in the NFL so would be very surprised if we used the high draft pick on one unless he can switch.

Different story if he struggles to recover as Demetress Bell and King Dunlap hardly set the world alight in his place.

He can play right tackle for his first year, and proivide insurance if Peters doesn't come back right

If Peters does, then Joeckel at right tackle and move Todd Herremans to guard


Surely whoever coaches the Eagles will be using McCoy to try to run the heck out of it for 16 games. Need a far better OL to do that first, and a change in philosophy to actually use your best player properly.

[The Camel]

Just read this:


The NFL also allows for the one-point safety, but only for the offense. Because play ends on an NFL conversion as soon as the defense gains possession, the only way this really could happen is if the defense batted the ball from the field of play into its own end zone