NFL 2012/13 General Discussion and Betting Thread

[TightEnd]

Total salary and comp comprises signing bonuses too

The total of all of these for players has to come in under $120m

Brady will have a multi year deal with quite low basics but a whopping bonus in there somewhere, all smoke and mirrors to get under the salary cap

When you hear "Joe Smith has signed for the Dolphins for $50m over 5 years" always take that with a pinch of salt, as the guaranteed figure is usually way less than that


The art for the good cap guys is

a) structure deals to afford your superstars
b) find bargain players in draft etc that outperform their financial deals

[The Camel]

When a player .. say Albert Haynesworth, signs a huge multi year deal.

Then gets released after 1 year.

Does he get the rest of his contract paid off?

[TightEnd]

When a player .. say Albert Haynesworth, signs a huge multi year deal.

Then gets released after 1 year.

Does he get the rest of his contract paid off?

Yes

and it counts against the cap for future years

hence the phrase "cap hell"

bad deals cost, both at the time and in the future

[Sheriff Fatman]

When a player .. say Albert Haynesworth, signs a huge multi year deal.

Then gets released after 1 year.

Does he get the rest of his contract paid off?

Yes

and it counts against the cap for future years

hence the phrase "cap hell"

bad deals cost, both at the time and in the future

I thought it only applied to that season's salary?

If he's picked up on waivers, then the new team simply picks up his existing contract, which is the best outcome for the team releasing him.

If he clears waivers and becomes a free agent the team who cut him then have to honour his contract for the remainder of that season, I believe.  If he signs with another team, this is additional income for the player, so you often see them sign contracts for the league minimum as a result as it's a cheap gamble for another team.  I don't think the team releasing him have any subsequent commitment to pay beyond that though.

I think the rules vary slightly in-season compared to the off-season but that's the general priciple, although I may be wrong on this.

[TightEnd]

if he is released and not picked up the team is on the hook for the contract to the end. I think. I stand to be corrected

if he goes onto waivers and is picked up by another, the new team has to work out a new deal with him or assume the old contract

Good players can get cut when their contract outweighs their productiveness, as often contracts have big back end increases in....

[Sheriff Fatman]

if he is released and not picked up the team is on the hook for the contract to the end. I think. I stand to be corrected

if he goes onto waivers and is picked up by another, the new team has to work out a new deal with him or assume the old contract

Good players can get cut when their contract outweighs their productiveness, as often contracts have big back end increases in....

Take, for example, Michael Vick.  If the Eagles cut him tomorrow and he doesn't join another team, they are not on the hook for the remainder of his 5 year $80m contract as it's not fully guaranteed.  They can cut him relatively cheaply prior to a certain date in the calendar this year, as the big payments generally come in the form of a roster bonus (similarly with Peyton Manning last year with the Colts, which influenced the timing of him being cut).

Most NFL contracts are structured in a similar way I believe, so the team only has to effectively honour the current year in full.

If you are correct, then the only element they do have to honour is presumably the base salary.

It's difficult to find solid info to answer one way or the other.

[Royal Flush]

Infographic showing the salaries of the players.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/interactive/2013/jan/30/nfl-salaries-team-position?CMP=twt_gu#baltimore-ravens,san-francisco-49ers

Why is Tom Brady only on $8m, behind people like Alex Smith and Jay Cutler?

I know Brady recently took a huge paycut to help the team sign some new talent.

[bobby1]

I know it's a little early to have a concrete view on next season but have the market got it right and New England are favs?

[TightEnd]

I know it's a little early to have a concrete view on next season but have the market got it right and New England are favs?

Almost certainly not


I have been doing some work on "strength of schedules" for next season

As we already know who plays who, just not the weekly schedule

Based off opponents W-L records from last year the Chargers have the second easiest schedule. This is a team that has the basic building blocks, has got rid of a stale coach and GM.

Others that might be of interest are (positively) Bills (7th) and the most difficult (negatively) Carolina (32nd)

I am thinking in terms of buying to sell during the season for the Chargers

[77dave]

Infographic showing the salaries of the players.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/interactive/2013/jan/30/nfl-salaries-team-position?CMP=twt_gu#baltimore-ravens,san-francisco-49ers

Why is Tom Brady only on $8m, behind people like Alex Smith and Jay Cutler?

I know Brady recently took a huge paycut to help the team sign some new talent.

talk of Jake Long moving the Bears in the free agent market. Im sure this is a huge upgrade for the Bears but how will he do over a 5 year contract? is he in decline already?

[TightEnd]

injuries have affected him badly over the last two years, but he's only 27

I assume a contract will be structured such that the cap hit will be low in a couple of years time if they have to cut him, but he'll still be paid if it works out

[bobby1]

I know it's a little early to have a concrete view on next season but have the market got it right and New England are favs?

Almost certainly not


I have been doing some work on "strength of schedules" for next season

As we already know who plays who, just not the weekly schedule

Based off opponents W-L records from last year the Chargers have the second easiest schedule. This is a team that has the basic building blocks, has got rid of a stale coach and GM.

Others that might be of interest are (positively) Bills (7th) and the most difficult (negatively) Carolina (32nd)

I am thinking in terms of buying to sell during the season for the Chargers

yes me too, I made Denver favs and was surprised when I saw the list. I have a book up on BF and Betdaq but just don't want to be the price Denver are in at. I thought Brady looked slower and old at the end of last season. Do you remember the last year Drew Bledsoe played at Dallas when almost every team just blitzed cos he was like a statue, I think Parcell's took him out of a game at half time for his own safety. I wouldn't be amazed if Brady got that kind of blitzing treatment next year, talking about Danny A with all his injury probs in for Welker too.


The strength of schedule might be a little flakey but it's arguable that the best AFC team last year have potentially the softest schedule next year.


2013 Strength of schedule

Team    and opponent record

Carolina Panthers   
.543
138-116-2
Detroit Lions   
.539
138-118-0
New Orleans Saints   
.539
137-117-2
St. Louis Rams   
.539
137-117-2
Baltimore Ravens   
.535
137-119-0
Green Bay Packers   
.533
136-119-1
Arizona Cardinals   
.520
131-121-4
Miami Dolphins   
.520
133-123-0
San Francisco 49ers   
.520
132-122-2
Minnesota Vikings   
.516
132-124-0
Seattle Seahawks   
.516
130-122-4
Cincinnati Bengals   
.508
130-126-0
Jacksonville Jaguars   
.508
129-125-2
New England Patriots   
.508
130-126-0
Atlanta Falcons   
.504
128-126-0
Chicago Bears   
.502
128-127-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers   
.500
127-127-2
Washington Redskins   
.498
127-128-1
New York Jets   
.496
127-129-0
Philadelphia Eagles   
.496
127-129-0
Cleveland Browns   
.492
126-130-0
Pittsburgh Steelers   
.496
126-130-0
Tennessee Titans   
.488
124-130-2
New York Giants   
.480
123-133-0
Dallas Cowboys   
.480
121-134-1
Buffalo Bills   
.473
121-135-0
Houston Texans   
.473
120-134-2
Kansas City Chiefs   
.473
121-135-0
Oakland Raiders   
.469
120-136-0
Indianapolis Colts   
.461
117-137-2
San Diego Chargers   
.457
117-139-0
Denver Broncos   
.430
110-146-0

[77dave]

injuries have affected him badly over the last two years, but he's only 27

I assume a contract will be structured such that the cap hit will be low in a couple of years time if they have to cut him, but he'll still be paid if it works out

will be 28 by the time the season starts.

Long has missed only two games in five NFL seasons. He was chosen a Pro Bowl starter each of the past three years and was a front-runner to be selected this year.

Even so, Long has become a less dominant blocker as his injuries accumulate. He was slowed by an ankle injury as a rookie and hurt his shoulder in 2010. Last year he battled back trouble, then missed the final game with a torn right biceps. He missed practice time this season because of a right knee injury.

Will be expensive, must be better value around the league.

[Royal Flush]

Anyone who doesn't think the pats should be faves can have any team vs them in a last longer with me

[redarmi]

Anyone who doesn't think the pats should be faves can have any team vs them in a last longer with me

I will take the 49ers for a monkey with proviso both must make playoffs