This deep we can call from sb, 100bs folding would probably be best.
As played as ugly as it sounds turn is a b/f as he shouldn't be cake cutting with aces and would most likel 4bet pre because you've shown great. Strength to 3bet a utg open oop.
I know it feels 'solved' and I don't mean to wander in and spoil the party... But as a reg in the micros stakes on zoom stars games.. (over 100k hands in last month) and I'd like to think one of the more solid ones now after a lot of work.
My views are similar to Pleno.
In this spot you will see roughly the following combo wise:
3 combos of QQ ('they' definitely realize to wait till the turn with this hand a lot)
1 combo of 88 (it's rare but not impossible
1 combo of 87 (I know some people won't fold a flopped pair, and with your 77's it only leaves one sooted combo left)
and maybe
1 combo of 33 (he will raise flop most of the time when this deep for sure)
1 combo draw like
(they do peel these pre, and when they do, they don't like folding when deep - i lost with my KK to
in a 4bt a few days ago)
The key parts to this hand are the preflop action, 3bt-ing oop here is completely criminal. When this deep, he will obv be peeling a little wider but I have yet to see anyone getting a shovel for their money with less than tptk in these pots. And they (myself included) don't even do it with that all the time.
I don't know how many hands you've got on
ru.admin's but he is a pretty solid reg in my experience and so this becomes a fold from the SB. I wouldn't hate a flat, but it definitely goes fold>call>3bt for me with the position of OR.
On this specific turn action he is never bluffing.I know this sounds obvious but it is definitely under-estimated. He will not have a combo draw hardly ever, they just peel it when IP.
This does definitely narrow his range down to something like that above... and when we have the blockers to 78 sooteds, it just makes it that much more unlikely.
With the confirmation that they will more often than not flat QQ otf and more often than not raise 33, it's not even close to anything but a fold ott.
I know this might seem strange, bad, nitty, insane coming from someone as 'spewy' as me.. but I've got a lot of hands on this site at this level with these players. It is simply the truth.
It is not 50p, it is burning 350bb'sYou have gotten into a 700bb pot with 3rd nuts, and I know this might sound harsh or rude or otherwise but they will so rarely call off with worse here - ever. If I were you - as played I'd be folding turn for sure, I'd hate it and I'd probably have a moan about it. But they just don't have AA here hoping to get in this many bb's.
(it is absolutely not meant to be mean btw)
With a combo draw 308 games 0.000 secs 61,600 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.935% 39.94% 00.00% 123 0.00 { 7c7d }
Hand 1: 60.065% 60.06% 00.00% 185 0.00 { QdQh, QdQs, QhQs, 8h8s, 3c3h, 8s7s, 5d4d }
Without a combo draw 264 games 0.000 secs 52,800 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.712% 33.71% 00.00% 89 0.00 { 7c7d }
Hand 1: 66.288% 66.29% 00.00% 175 0.00 { QdQh, QdQs, QhQs, 8h8s, 3c3h, 8s7s }
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