A thread of winter woes and hopefully some cheer?

[horseplayer]

As we head towards winter most of my betting horse racing wise will be made at Southwell on the glorious? fibresand.

Firstly why Southwell? Well it is often mentioned it is a specialists track to a degree it is and as such it is usually quite easy to rule out a number of horses who have previously shown they dont act on the surface.

Secondly this winter will feature a fair few horses that have never raced here and as such there price will be based on previous form elsewhere. Quite often it is mentioned that soft ground horses go well at southwell the stats dont really reflect this, the horse may go well here having handled soft ground but it is equally likely not to. More important for me are the previous performance of the sire at southwell. Now of course this doesnt guarantee anything, after all Paul Ross isnt as good on tv as brother Jonathon

The importance of sires on a horses performance at southwell is now factored into the market a lot more than a few seasons ago, however i still feel that quite often previous good turf form is a bigger factor and i dont think it should be.

What am i looking for to have a bet at Southwell? Preferably three of these four things would be a good start. The horse having previously shown a liking for the track (even if was a while ago), the trainer of said horse being in at least decent form, the horse sire showing a positive effect from racing there and the horse having moved from a poorer trainer to a better performing one.

Especially after this mornings findings with andrew heffernan and michael chopra to name but 9 a lot of punters avoid the generally low grade stuff at southwell deeming it all bent. I am not naive the majority of bent horses take place in the lower grades of which southwell have plenty. Personally i avoid completely 4 or 5 trainers who i cant read and don't want to waste time trying to, if they have a runner in a race unless i really really fancy one i will skip the race.



I will be starting with a betting bank of £1000 for this southwell challenge and anytime i put a bet on here will be a bet i have made.

Good luck all

 

[Leatherman]

Good luck with this pal, will follow.

[kinboshi]

[tikay]

Yup, hope it goes well horsey.

[millidonk]

Good luck with this pal, will follow.

[doubleup]

good luck - I think this is a great idea for a thread.  I find the smaller fields of usually exposed horses in AW easier to read than  turf racing.

[horseplayer]

here we go fancy two today

3.00 SOUTHWELL

NOWDORO 11-2 £25 win (available with various firms )

Positives :

Showed marked improvement last time on first run in a handicap

Bred for southwell Notnowcato from a very small sample is 2 winners from 4 here and all placed and horse has deeper us breeding which is a small +

Looks a very weak race

Negatives :

Trainer is a low % outfit and not one i will back to often however is in some kind of form last two weeks.


Further bet to follow later will be in the 5.00

[Graham C]

Good luck HP

[typhoon13]

Plenty of winter woes there

[horseplayer]

well it can only go up from there

horse either went wrong very early or is just useless probably both

5.00 SOUTHWELL GREAT CHARM 22-1 general £25 win

Right this is a good race for the grade with any number of course and distance specialists.

The selection is 2-3 here albeit a while ago, has not been with daniel kubler long and has in its last 3 starts been running over to far on soft ground and tried to be held up to get a trip it doesnt get.

Today he reverts back to 6 furlongs which is ideal, the trainer states on his website the plan will be to let him bowl along again he gets blinkers and first time hood (a new aid which is currently 14% across the board)

The horse may well have gone at the game but this is a career low mark and is the first time it has had its conditions since its first run for kubler were it still showed ability to come 3rd.

[typhoon13]

Horsey

Why not each way at those odds?

Surely worth hedging that second and third spot.

[horseplayer]

well not many excuses there

the 3 year old went wrong after a furlong or at least appeared to

great charm could never lead or get close to it stayed on a bit late but is going to need an easier contest to probably get competitive again


running total = £950

[horseplayer]

just the one all weather bet for me and its tonight at wolverhampton

THANE OF CAWDOR was purchased for $280,000 as a yearling... I dont think the plan was for it to end up rated 54 and running in a class 6 at wolverhampton on a saturday night.

The horse was trained by Tom Tate until its last run no offence to Mr Tate but for the stock he is often bought he very much under achieves, more importantly for whatever reasons horses that have left him in the past have often won fairly early on for a new trainer suggesting he either doesnt get them fit enough or places them very badly (probably both)

Back to the horse is now with Jo Tuite who is a fairly new trainer who started well and has faded a bit recently. However he got the all weather veteran efistorm to win at 33-1 on the turf last week which shows he can train and his horses seem to be running a bit better the last two weeks. The horse showed one piece of form when with tate and that was here on the 10th of July when for some reason he was dropped in trip to 7 furlongs from his maidens over a mile. The horse ran on quite well to get 4th near the line considering he was out paced throughout, this was from a mark of 60 so running even to that level tonight over a trip that looks more encompassing of its breeding and running style will see it go at least close.

The debut for Tuite at Chepstow last time was awful but having watched it a couple of times the horse never handled the track at any stage and had little pressure applied throughout 14-1 tonight looks more than fair.

7.50 WOLVERHAMPTON THANE OF CAWDOR £28.50 WIN 14-1 general (BOG)

[horseplayer]

Well ran ok no more than that plugged on in the straight like a stayer

Looks to either need even further or more probable a drop into selling grade










RUNNING TOTAL £922.50

[RickBFA]

Is the draw a big factor? I always thought it was at Southwell?