stars zoom - genuinely tough one (I think)

[DMorgan]

Honestly John you'd probably be better off just taking all of the postflop stats off your HUD.

You're trying to make huge, maximally exploitative adjustments based on very small sample sizes. There is a reason why standard lines are standard. Because they are the best lines to take against most people.

[skolsuper]

Fold flop. 16/10 has a set here always.

What about his range... his small sample shows an aggro post flop player.. and he has all the big pairs???

Am I going crazy or something?

If you can't help acting on 'information' like this you get from your HUD, I would suggest hiding stats with less than 20 samples.

[jgcblack]

Fold flop. 16/10 has a set here always.

What about his range... his small sample shows an aggro post flop player.. and he has all the big pairs???

Am I going crazy or something?

If you can't help acting on 'information' like this you get from your HUD, I would suggest hiding stats with less than 20 samples.

tbh I didn't know any of this at the time, i didn't have enough timebank to go through them.

I acted based on:
 my read + the situation + no of bb's + hand strength - chance of winning = decision.

I'll let this float for 24 hours before i post any more.


All I'll say is I'm surprised at the assumption he has sets only with those stats when I did see them after.  Seems to me he likes to flat pre, to let people squeeze... and then takes off post which to me means he will have all the 'good' hands, of which I'm including overpairs.

Just purely based on bet sizing, I actually wonder if he just has exactly JJ a lot???

[skolsuper]

Fold flop. 16/10 has a set here always.

What about his range... his small sample shows an aggro post flop player.. and he has all the big pairs???

Am I going crazy or something?

If you can't help acting on 'information' like this you get from your HUD, I would suggest hiding stats with less than 20 samples.

tbh I didn't know any of this at the time, i didn't have enough timebank to go through them.

I acted based on:
 my read + the situation + no of bb's + hand strength - chance of winning = decision.

I'll let this float for 24 hours before i post any more.


All I'll say is I'm surprised at the assumption he has sets only with those stats when I did see them after.  Seems to me he likes to flat pre, to let people squeeze... and then takes off post which to me means he will have all the 'good' hands, of which I'm including overpairs.

Just purely based on bet sizing, I actually wonder if he just has exactly JJ a lot???

I could reiterate that "those stats" are meaningless but I feel like I'd be wasting my time.

My first answer stands, fold flop because that turn and river action or something like it nearly always happens and you're left with a (trivially easy IMO) fold on the river, so just save your money and fold on the flop.

[DMorgan]

Seems to me he likes to flat pre, to let people squeeze... and then takes off post which to me means he will have all the 'good' hands, of which I'm including overpairs.

This is 10NL. People don't think like that.

[WotRTheChances]

With a small opening/calling range he obviously has value hands a lot, 190 hands isn't the biggest sample but it should be indicative of a real impression.  However to not have any 3bt's in that range means that he will have JJ-KK all the time in this situation, as such he will obviously think they are for value and in this instance may wish to 'stack off' with a holding far inferior to that of which he should - imo.

WHAT? So he's not 3-bet in 190 hands... so we assume he doesnt 3-bet ever?!

Personally i'd assume he hasn't been dealt AA-QQ yet... or he has been the initial raiser when he has done.

Flop could be a fold, but I probably get to river and then fold. River is a trivial fold.

[cambridgealex]

I get KK about 1/36 hands so I think John's assumption is OK

[rfgqqabc]

With a small opening/calling range he obviously has value hands a lot, 190 hands isn't the biggest sample but it should be indicative of a real impression.  However to not have any 3bt's in that range means that he will have JJ-KK all the time in this situation, as such he will obviously think they are for value and in this instance may wish to 'stack off' with a holding far inferior to that of which he should - imo.

WHAT? So he's not 3-bet in 190 hands... so we assume he doesnt 3-bet ever?!

Personally i'd assume he hasn't been dealt AA-QQ yet... or he has been the initial raiser when he has done.

Flop could be a fold, but I probably get to river and then fold. River is a trivial fold.

Pretty much what everyone else has said. I "think" flop is a fold, but i don't think i do ingame, hope I fold turn for sure, and definitely river.

[SuuPRlim]

John, one thing to remember.

190 hands and a 0% 3bet isn't 190 hands, because in order to 3bet you have to be facing an open, so of those 190 hand 32 of them he'll have been UTG, unable to 3bet regardless of what hand he's being dealt.

another 32 hands he'll be UTG1, average PFR for UTG at 10nl, 15%? so another ~28 hands he won't have been able to 3bet, % of the time it's folded to him in MP/CO? 40%? so there's another ~26 hands he cant have been able to 3bet. I've basically just halved you're sample, Truth be told in these 190 hands he's probably had the oppurtunity to 3bet in about 70-85 of them, not been dealt a premium in these hand? Very possible. Had absolute Junk? very possible, is a little on the tighter side? certainly very likely.

We've established I think he is never bluffing, so in order for your argument to hold we need him to be value betting WORSE than ACES ~38% of the time, there are 12 combo's of JJ-KK and 5 combo's of flopped sets. Lets assume these 17 combo's are 100% of his range, AND he plays every hand in his range this way, then you win the pot 70% of the time.

I think you know as well as any of us, it's a massively flawed assumption to say he plays every one of these 17 hands the same way, as soon as you start adjusting the frequencies in his range the maths becomes very unforgiving to your call.

Lets say he 3bets KK 66% of the time, and QQ/JJ 33% of the time (so 2 out of 3 times he will 3bet KK, 1 in 3 he will 3bet QQ/JJ) this takes his river range down to 13 combos, 8 of which we beat, 5 of which we don't. Now we win 62% of the time.

Expanding this further, lets say he takes this line with KK-JJ OTF 75% of the time, this takes his river range down to 11 combo's, 6 of which we beat, 5 of which we dont.  Now we have the best hand 55% of the time.

Lets not worry about the turn I think that was stnd enough.

OTR, he chooses to overbet JAM, lets not forget that at these stakes overbet jams are notoriously "nut" heavy, pots $13 and he has $16.4 in stacks, you might say he'll bet all-in with his entire range, but there are plenty of other bet sizes and it's worth considering that he will chk OP's sometimes, and will bet smaller others, lets say that he overbet Jams 2/3's of the time with his KK-JJ hands. This reduces your river range for him to 9, 4 of which we beat, 5 of which we don't.

We now have 44% of time we will win.

I have been EXTREMELY generous here, and way unrealistic in the assumptions. In actual fact here is what I think his frequencies will be.

PF- 3bet KK 100% 3bet JJ/QQ 66% (2 combo)

OTF- He will c/r JJ/QQ ~25% of the time (0.5 combo)

River - he will overbet ship ~20% of the time (0.1 combo)

To summurise I think he gets to the river with 5.1 combo's and you lose to 5 of them, you will have the best hand a shade under 2% of the time.

[strak33]

By the river, he has a full house or quads, that much we know. The only question is, can we beat either of those hands with our two pair? With reference to your handy chart, I don't think we can.

Nearly stopped reading after first keys reply. This one ended everything.

[Pinchop73]

By the river, he has a full house or quads, that much we know. The only question is, can we beat either of those hands with our two pair? With reference to your handy chart, I don't think we can.

Nearly stopped reading after first keys reply. This one ended everything.

Me too, had a chuckle at Keys' post! Classic

I'm not good enough to fold the flop here either JB, but once he barrels the turn you don't need to be mystic meg to know what's coming on the river. Most players would tend to not barrel the turn with TT-KK, and certainly not ship on the river with the board texture.
If he has and shows once you've folded so what? You got bluffed that once in a hundred, keep making solid decisions and you won't need to worry about spots like these.

Maybe print off said handy chart and selotape it to one of your screens?

[pleno1]

Is this the time where I give the 3b the flop speech or the poker really isn't a hard game, there are very few 16/10s and we don make money from bluffcatching then for over 200bbs? I assume the latter.

It's really that simple, poker is a very very simple game you even have a computer program that is telling you about the players. Even if he had. Qq I v v much doubt that he jams the river here.

You're making good progress mate and whilst this might seem simple to dave, James and I it isn't necessarily a super simple fold from your avg 10 player.  I'd say most 10nl players would never fold here but that's how we make money, value betting. You gotta know when to Holdem know when to foldem.

Also if you are perhaps not super competent at 200bb play as its a totally different animal maybe it's best to leave the table once you get deeper and bring a fresh one up. #advabtagesofzoom

[Pugwashed]

I like how you're still trying to argue for the spewy call despite actually doing the right thing and folding. Even if he does bluff the flop and turn on the river AA is purely a bluff catcher in a spot where he is never bluffing

[jgcblack]

I like how you're still trying to argue for the spewy call despite actually doing the right thing and folding. Even if he does bluff the flop and turn on the river AA is purely a bluff catcher in a spot where he is never bluffing

Arvhfhffjcoapfnxhaodkcofnek!!!!!!

Spoiler.

Yes, I did in fact, cbet-sigh-call flop.. / chk-sigh-call turn / chk-snap-fold river

Purely because some guys @ 10nl will have KK/QQ/JJ here, but they will not in my experience have worse than a house when they pull out the <pot turn+ >pot river bet one two combo.


I am learning, I am changing, I am winning.

Just dont like folding AA bro.

[SuuPRlim]

Sick read I knew you folded.

WP mate x