GUKPT Luton final table sweat thread

[Leatherman]

If somebody could put stream link up for me that be great.. Ta

[cambridgealex]

Jamie O'Connor 5-2 up to £400
Luke Schwartz 4-1 up to £250
Tim Blake 5-1 up to £200
Mark Karoullas 7-1 up to £140
Shaun Conning 8-1 up to £200
Tom Myland 20-1 up to £50

3/3 books I've ran have all lost money so I think I've found something I run bad at, so take your shot! Not offering odds on Mitch because really don't want to have any reason to antisweat the big lad. Sent to 20alex430 or bank transfer, need to receive by 2pm

Alex,i know you are new to being a bookmaker,but i make those prices roughly 94%,and you havn't quoted three of the players! two of these are the chip leaders and Mitch who we know has a great chance (can understand you not wanting to quote,but he still has a price percentage)
Using you prices as a template ive gone
9/4 dean swift
3/1 hills
5/1 mitch
so whole field gives a 165% book.
if your previous 'books' have been to these percentages you do indeed run bad to be losing 3/3.

Thanks mate, I was advised to do it 130% for this sort of thing, which is what my spreadsheet is programmed to do for me, and then I increase or decrease it based on my opinion of the players chances of winning (hence why I don't offer odds on people I've never seen play or heard of). I think the prices may be worse than 130% because I don't wanna get burned again, so I've made them a little shorter, but also because I've offered odds on the best players left in, so each one as been adjusted for having a skill edge.

Appreciate the advice though mate, will still to 130% next time and just hope to run better.

[cambridgealex]

If somebody could put stream link up for me that be great.. Ta

 http://www.facebook.com/GUKPT/app_507775145914938

[zerofive]

£50 on chinamug for a punt. If his posts are anything to go by, he doesn't know what a playing card looks like but would definitely start yelling at it anyway, but nothing would be sweeter than taking Alex for a bag.

£50 on Jamie for insurance.

[cambridgealex]

Booked Sean.

NEW PRICES:

Dean Swift   2/1 Max £500   
Jamie O'Connor   5/2   Max £350
Andrew Hills    5/1   Max £200   
Tim Blake   6/1   Max £200
Luke Schwartz   9/2   Max £225
Mark Karoullas   9/1   Max £110   
Shaun Conning   9/1   Max £150
Tom Myland     25/1  Max £20

      

[Dubai]

[cambridgealex]

You guys have taken me for £2k on these prices this month!

[smashedagain]

I think that its excellent fun and he puts the effort in and deserves the results out. Adds a bit extra to the sweats too.

Can't get that link to the stream to work tho

[cambridgealex]

You guys have taken me for £2k on these prices this month!

... which at the quoted books is extremely bad luck.  However, run that book every week for a year and you would clean house.  Either price up the lot or none at all.  If you do the math correctly, it won't matter who wins, you will make a profit so the reverse sweat nonsense doesn't apply.  Even bookmakers that own horses/ dogs take bets on their own animals.

All or nothing.

Peace.

That's assuming everyone sells out. Agree with your general point though, thanks for the advice.

[edgascoigne]

You guys have taken me for £2k on these prices this month!

... which at the quoted books is extremely bad luck.  However, run that book every week for a year and you would clean house.  Either price up the lot or none at all.  If you do the math correctly, it won't matter who wins, you will make a profit so the reverse sweat nonsense doesn't apply.  Even bookmakers that own horses/ dogs take bets on their own animals.

All or nothing.

Peace.

The bolded bits just simply aren't true. Whilst Alex has a theoretical +ve expectation to suggest that getting stung 2/2 is "extremely bad luck" is a long way from being accurate.

The second bolded part is only true if Alex manages to run a completely balanced book, which is unlikely for any number of reasons.

Whilst I would agree the book he is betting to here has too much fat (it was me that advised Alex to bet to 130% generally), the service takes a reasonable amount of admin effort to run, produces a degree of volatility for Alex himself and, perhaps crucially, is currently without a competitor.

If anyone wishes to bet more competitively than him I'm sure they will quickly nick his business, though I am yet to see anyone step up to do this....

[edgascoigne]

More importantly, good luck all heroes left in!!

[smashedagain]

Not friends with Tom Myland or Shaun Conning (must have deleted me) on Facebook but would love to see these guys win, along with Jamie, Tim, Mitch or Luke. Almost a perfect final other than it missing Foxy.

[iangascoigne]

Good luck to 'Mitch the Chip'. He eats what he wants,he eats what he wants.

[redsimon]

Bit disappointing its not on table with hole cards shown

[smashedagain]

The stream keeps messing up. Is it the laptop I am using or the same for everyone else?