Darts Betting and discussion

[McGlashan]

Gary probably shouldn't of done it but it was a great display of gamesmanship and it goes to show the excellent sort of characters we have here in the Premier League of Darts.

- Wazza "earn with" Hearn

Have you got a link to where he said that?

I think McG is taking the piss.  I assume he is.

Confirmed made up.

Gary's a good lad though, it's not as if he intended to cheat.

A pro sportsman shouldn't be losing on purpose.

I don't like this story as it is, if I'd had a monkey on Anderson to win that match (and home advantage for Scottish darts players when they are playing the English is often underrated by bookies) I would be spitting feathers.

Have to agree with Keith on this, as much as I love Gary Anderson it just not on and he should be serverly punished for it. If he felt that strongly about it at the time he should have refused to play. Any statement from Lewis on it? doubt he will be pleased.

It is just sheer naivety on Ando's part.  He isn't the brightest button in the box.  He was just generally talking about the incident without even thinking about the implications because there were no dodgy betting patterns on it.  He wasn't involved in any coup because it was a spur of the moment thing.  Think it would be very harsh if the book was thrown at him.  It isn't going to happen though with him being WC.  If it could be proved there were dodgy betting patterns on it then it is a totally different matter but i doubt there was. 

If you knew it was a bent coup half way through the game then you had a max bet on it in running right?  Or are you only saying this after the event?

He would have been more severely punished if he refused to play on the night imo.

I don't think it was a "bent coup" but he was clearly not trying to win. Anyone who had a bet would be entitled to be furious.

A pro sportsman should always put in his best effort.

As Omm said, if he felt that badly about what was happening he should have walked off, not stopped trying.

"Oh but he thought he was doing the right thing" will be the typical defence of Anderson's actions.

I do actually agree with everything you say Camel yet it's inevitable all this will be swept under the carpet without any repercussions.

[Teacake]

Anderson walking off stage and not finishing that game was not an option that night, believe me. Sometimes there are bigger implications than your acca going down.

[TL900]

Where's the value then? Top half of the draw looks stacked compared to the bottom.

[arbboy]

Where's the value then? Top half of the draw looks stacked compared to the bottom.

If you fancy MVG back him in a different way at Hills.  Winning nation market hills are evens a Dutch winner.  betfair is currently 2.18 MVG.  So for giving up a few spots on the MVG price you get a host of other Dutch runners running for you should MVG fail.  (Barney, vincent van der voorrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrt van der voorttttttt vincent can der voorrrrrrrrt nanananananannananaaaaaaaaaaa, Klassen, Dekker and a few other total 1000/1 pokes).  Think overall this is a better way to back MVG overall.

[HutchGF]

Where's the value then? Top half of the draw looks stacked compared to the bottom.

If you fancy MVG back him in a different way at Hills.  Winning nation market hills are evens a Dutch winner.  betfair is currently 2.18 MVG.  So for giving up a few spots on the MVG price you get a host of of other runners running for you should MVG fail.

Can't see past MvG. He seems to have another gear to everyone else. 2.25 on Skuy and Hills but it's an account closer imo if you go too big.

[TL900]

Whitlock/VdV to win 3rd Q? Both 14/1 will not be putting a dime on Ando at evens to win the quarter. I like Whitlock at 14s here.

Can't see past MVG for the title obv but would it be worth backing Phil each way at 5/1 (top 2 1/2) given the draw layout?

[arbboy]

My idea of a maximum bet for the darts is this:

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/pdc-world-championship/highest-average-o-u

HIghest average in the event being under 107.5 5/6.  Only once in the last 3 years has any player averaged over 105 in a match (Barney 108 in 2013 in the first round).  Only twice in the last 3 years apart from that 108 average has anyone average 104 or 105 in a world championship match.  These matches are long brutal affairs where it is very hard to average such high scores as we are used to in the premier league.

Given Taylor is a shadow of his former self with no major wins this year this bet really does look a cracking bet.  Apart from Taylor only MVG, Ando and Lewis (on a proper red hot going day) can average 108 at this level.  Even then they will struggle at this level/length of match.

If the bet hasn't gone over in the first round then it should be effectively weighed in.  107.5 average really is a truely sensational effort to do in any game.  95% of this field literally can't average that in any given game.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/pdc-world-championship/will-the-winner-record-the-most-tournament-180s

The other bet i really like as well is this one which has moved from 1.85 to 1.7 (doesn't take bwin much to move a price).  Given Taylor is readily opposable (and doesn't ever trouble the 180 charts) whoever wins the world's this year is highly likely to also be the top maximum hitter mainly because they will have the advantage of playing in a best of 13 set final which no one else will bar one other player obviously.

No firm is offering a price on which player will get the most 180's but it i was pricing it i would be very short ando and mvg, lewis clear 3rd fav and big prices anyone else.

[Ledders]

Boylesports (lol) have it priced up as 5/4 MVG, 2/1 Anderson, 10/1 Lewis and Chisnall, 16-1 Taylor.

Anderson worth a punt then?

[arbboy]

Boylesports (lol) have it priced up as 5/4 MVG, 2/1 Anderson, 10/1 Lewis and Chisnall, 16-1 Taylor.

Anderson worth a punt then?

Only if you strongly fancy him getting to the final.  Very hard to win this if you don't get to the final imo given Taylor is never a runner in this market and it is likely two other players to Taylor will be in the final this year.  Will be very hard to beat 2 other players with an extra 13 sets of play if you don't make the final.  

At the prices i could only back MVG at the same price he is to win the event.  Yet if he makes the final he prob has the same chance to win this market win or lose but you are getting the same price as if he wins the event compared to just needing to reach the final.  The more i think about it MVG is probably a decent bet at 5/4 in this market.

[arbboy]

On the back of the previous two posts you might get the impression I really don't like Taylor this year even though i am his biggest fan.  I have read a couple of interviews in the local stoke paper and a radio interview on the local radio station and he just seems resigned to not being able to compete at the real top level any more.  I have never heard him speak like this before.  I think he knows the game and business he has effectively built single handedly for 20 years is over for him now.  He said 'I would have loved to play MVG in my prime because it would have been an incredible game'.  Stuff like this just makes him sound defeated before he starts to me.  This is his first season ever without a tv major and he really shouldn't be 2nd fav for this event tbh on anything other than the Phil Taylor 'badge'.  Lewis has stuck up for his old mucker and said 'Phil isn't gone at the game it is just that the others have caught him up'.  I don't really buy into this either.

Three players with big pressure on them this year due to the 2 year rolling prize money world rankings are Wright, Lewis and Whitlock.  They all made the semis in 2014 (Wright finalled) so they have big money to defend this year to protect their rankings (£50k for semis/£100k for final from 2014).  Conversely Taylor went out in the 2nd round in 2014 so has nothing to defend.  Whitlock will be the biggest loser unless he miracles another deep run.  His gambling/drinking demons will have caught up with his world ranking after this event and it is highly likely he will fall outside the top 16 for the start of next season.  He will know this totally and the impact of his future draws/earnings from next year onwards and will definitely be feeling the pressure and i would strongly be looking to oppose in most markets.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/darts/35015787

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/darts/35060049

Couple of interesting articles here.  Anderson just doesn't have that killer instinct if you read his comments in these for me.  He talks like a happy man having already won the worlds.  Whereas Taylor and MVG just want to keep winning relentlessly.

[Bazzaboy]

It's a very decent bet.  If he makes the final against anyone other than Anderson he would already be weighed in.

[arbboy]

It's a very decent bet.  If he makes the final against anyone other than Anderson he would already be weighed in.

It is pretty much like backing MVG to make the final at the same price as he is to win the event (with the disclaimer you make about ando making the final with him)

The only potential worry is that he literally hoses up to the final 3-0 4-0 5-0 every round and doesn't actually play that many sets on route to the final.  You can actually be playing 'too well' sometimes for these bets if you get my drift and don't actually log a lot of actual sets/legs during the event.

[Bazzaboy]

On the back of the previous two posts you might get the impression I really don't like Taylor this year even though i am his biggest fan.  I have read a couple of interviews in the local stoke paper and a radio interview on the local radio station and he just seems resigned to not being able to compete at the real top level any more.  I have never heard him speak like this before.  I think he knows the game and business he has effectively built single handedly for 20 years is over for him now.  He said 'I would have loved to play MVG in my prime because it would have been an incredible game'.  Stuff like this just makes him sound defeated before he starts to me.  This is his first season ever without a tv major and he really shouldn't be 2nd fav for this event tbh on anything other than the Phil Taylor 'badge'.  Lewis has stuck up for his old mucker and said 'Phil isn't gone at the game it is just that the others have caught him up'.  I don't really buy into this either.

Three players with big pressure on them this year due to the 2 year rolling prize money world rankings are Wright, Lewis and Whitlock.  They all made the semis in 2014 (Wright finalled) so they have big money to defend this year to protect their rankings (£50k for semis/£100k for final from 2014).  Conversely Taylor went out in the 2nd round in 2014 so has nothing to defend.  Whitlock will be the biggest loser unless he miracles another deep run.  His gambling/drinking demons will have caught up with his world ranking after this event and it is highly likely he will fall outside the top 16 for the start of next season.  He will know this totally and the impact of his future draws/earnings from next year onwards and will definitely be feeling the pressure and i would strongly be looking to oppose in most markets.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/darts/35015787

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/darts/35060049

Couple of interesting articles here.  Anderson just doesn't have that killer instinct if you read his comments in these for me.  He talks like a happy man having already won the worlds.  Whereas Taylor and MVG just want to keep winning relentlessly.

I've opposed both Taylor and Anderson in the bottom half. Bwin had some silly prices in the to make final market which didn't take in to account the lop sided nature of the draw but they have fixed them now. Taylor has buckled too many times under pressure recently for it to be a coincidence and Anderson doesn't have the same fire in his belly as he had last year.  I've been hoping Chisnall and Smith would end up in this half all year due to my ante post positions on them but it wasn't to be.

[SuuPRlim]

MVG (5/4) form in the run up has just been insane as well, and over the whole year too pretty much. He's fucking unstoppable.

Garry (15/2) really hasn't quite found the form of this time last year since the premier league, but looks to have a pretty smooth ride into the 1/4's where he is favorite to face James Wade, who is a fucking nightmare to play for anyone and if you dont play your A game you tend to get beat - but he's shown this year despite all the bottle hes just a level below the top guys, Taylor (who he beat in the final last year) is the favorite to face him in the Semi, I think Garry will be really happy with his draw, but tailed off on the scoring and dropped a few % on the dbl top this yr which is basically what won him the title last yr.

Lewis 20/1 is phenomenal when he's on it but the inconsistency just makes him un-backable if you care for your living room furniture, basically ever since that 6-0 drumming by MVG he's never found the form consistently since (I honestly thought he was going to win the whole thing that year, and I think he did too) and I think it still plays on his mind when he plays MVG. His path to the latter stages is fraught with danger too, Huybrechts in rd 3, Peter Wright/Chizzy in the quarters and then obviously a repeat of 2013 semi if he can get there. He is world class though and likes the long format...but I can just see his head dropping too easily of late and a little too much quality to get past to have a real shout, even with such attractive odds I love watching him on form too.

Phil Taylor 5/1 definitely looks to me like the most likely candidate to beat MVG, he's been consistently solid all year but but his failings under pressure at the dbl 8/16 segment is what has cost him, 3 yrs ago with 2 darts in hand at dbl 16 you can bet your house on him finishing it off, these days though not so much - the fact that his averages are still up to scratch with the best despite his starting to fail on the doubles show how good his scoring is and he's still easily got the game to win the WC/ stop the MVG wrecking ball. On a stage he has dominated I could see him finding his nerve again and if he does MVG needs to be at his best to get him. His route to the semi's is full of journeymen pro's - Kevin Painter in rnd2, probably Jelle Klasen given Mervyn King's poor form in rnd3 (I realise he's no journyman but I doubt will cause too much worry for PT) and Webster/Jenkins/Thornton/Hamilton in the 1/4's. Seems like a lock for the semi's his scoring power is too much for anyone he will face and he'll get plenty of chances to hit those doubles (except Jelle Klassen potentially but so inconsistent) and can all have changed by the time we reach the semis...

James Wade 25-1 Quarter final vs Garry and a Semi vs Phil look like a little too much to overcome for wadey, think he's a lock to get there though.

Barney 60/1 Can he do it? Go on Barny, out of form Bunting in rnd.2, MVG rnd.3, Micheal Smith in the 1/4's, Lewis/Wright/Chizzy in the Semi and then Garry or Phil in the final... Barny is one of the few genuinely capable of beating MVG, in fact very capable of beating anyone but this is too much to contemplate for Barny Sorry buddy...

Chizzy 35/1 / Peter Wright 28/1 Tough part of the draw, both in good form, Wright the favorite of the two due to his pedigree in this event, his world ranking and the fact he is generally considered to have a little more metal. I kinda fancy chizzy to have a go at it this year... Think with Lewis' inconsistency I really fancy finding a semi-finalist from these two Peter Wright losing to Chizzy 4-9 head-to-head and despite all these being over shorter formats I think Chizzy is the pick. I dont believe either can pose much of a threat to MVG the way things stand.

My bets are going to be...

Phil Taylor win 4/1 betfred EW (top 4 1/4 odds)

Chizzy to bust in the semi's 7/1

James Wade to bust in the Quarter's 9/4

Completely with Arrboy on U107.5 highest average.

I also think a small wager on Chizzy most 180s 10/1 - Garry's 180 figures have slipped a little, and given I fancy chizzy to make the semi's, and have two potentially long matches vs Peter Wright and Adrian Lewis, I think he's the one for me. MVG at evens is probably the best bet even though you would have to be mad to bet it!!!