Confidence at an all time low so playing badly and clueless.

[Junior Senior]

Just my two cents worth...

In my opinion there is no such thing as a 'live tournament professional'. It is simply not a feasible and realistic means of making a living.

There are a LOT of players out there who are definitely +EV in live tournaments. But that is not the same thing as saying they can realistically expect to make regular money. The variance in tournament poker is immense (the vast majority of those who think they know this actually do not fully comprehend it). And the amount of volume that it is possible to put in over a year is tiny. If you grind extremely hard all year you may be able to play 250 live tournaments right? That is a tiny sample size. After 4 years you may have played over 1000 tournaments - still a tiny sample size. A lot of +EV players will be losing money after 1000 tournaments. In fact, quite a lot of the very best tournament players will lose money over 1000 tournaments. It may be +EV, but it is not a viable and realistic way to try to earn a living.

I want to give an analogy. Imagine that you somehow knew that certain numbers were more likely to be drawn in the national lottery, and thus you could select 100 different combinations of numbers every draw and would have a positive expectation. Would you be +EV entering the lottery every week? Of course you would. Would it be reasonable for you to expect to be able to support your family for the next five years through doing this? Of course it wouldn't. By far the most likely outcome after five years is that you would have lost money. There is a small chance that you will win a LOT of money - that's what makes you entering the lottery +EV. But it would be silly for you to hope that this can provide a regular income.

That's basically what live tournament poker is: a +EV lottery. There is nothing wrong with entering live tournaments for the competitive challenge, the sporting drama, and for fun. And if you are +EV in these tournaments then so much the better. If you could live until you were 1000 then no doubt you'll have made money from live tournaments if you are indeed +EV. But to try to 'make a regular living' from live tournaments is completely unrealistic. It is a 'good gamble', that is all.

There are plenty of players who you could point to and say, "well, what about x, y or z... they have been making it pay for x number of years. So it IS possible." That would be missing the point. There will always be players who have been lucky enough to outrun the variance in the short term. And make no mistake about it... your entire tournament life is nothing more than the short term - it is impossible to reach the long-term in a lifetime of tournament poker.


If anyone disagrees with what I say, have a read of these three articles:

http://www.thehendonmob.com/alex_rousso/id_rather_be_lucky_than_good

http://www.thehendonmob.com/alex_rousso/brace-aments_are_too_much_of_a_gamble

http://www.thehendonmob.com/alex_rousso/vegas_trip_simulator

These articles are great. Thank you for linking

[Pinchop73]

All aaron1867 posts, I'm like

[iangascoigne]

There is so much good advice on here I do hope it helps.Going back to the start my only ten pennyworth is that 'to love the game' you maybe have to respect the game a little more and part of that is deciding what you are trying to achieve when you sit down at the table ( talking live). For me for 18 months or so it was for social reasons and a level of enjoyment from 'playing'.
I enjoyed the banter,the craic and as a 'social extrovert' it was the perfect recreational activity,especially as I didn't do it for a living.However even a recreational activity becomes 'not fun' when you are continually losing and beginning to feel like the table mug/muppet/nob. So motivated more by pride than the need for revenue I decided to give the game a little more respect.Concentrate less on being the 'life and soul of the party' and to concentrate more on all the dynamics so apparent in the live game.Masses of information,incomplete information,moods,vibes,personalities,betting patterns,hand ranges,showdowns,etc etc etc. You cannot do this if you are telling funny stories or chatting up the valets ( :-) .
    As poker is a game based on decision making my first decision has to be ' what is my purpose today ? '. If it's to have fun,be the life and soul and play a bit of poker play the £15 comp,get a poker fix and have a laugh.
    If it really is to optimize the chance of making money then you have to give the game and the other players maximum respect from the beginning and get in the ' game zone '.  From the ' game zone' you can still have fun and be sociable but it is from this ' zone' and only when appropriate and not to the risk of breaking the spell as it where.
     Watch Neil Giblin play cash. Sociable,enjoys the banter but always 'from the zone' and never at the expense of 'the zone'.
      The same goes for Kieth Johnson and James Keys.
       Watch Simon Deadman in competitions.He ' goes to work '.
         If poker is your choice of income generation and if part of that is to play live ( I have nothing to contribute to the online element here ) then my advice is to concentrate more on the game,develop your game focus and build your confidence 'one hour at a time'  or ' one level at a time'  so you can go to a break saying to yourself ' I am really pleased with my game that level,I think I made optimum decisions' It is this which builds confidence.That is a better hour than learning that Madge is going out with Henry,Freds got banned from driving and have tou heard the one about the Irishmen,Scotsman etc.
        As a social extrovert with a young family to support Poker is a challenge but it seems to me going back to fundamentals and putting the game first rather than the social bit there is no reason why live results shouldn't improve dramatically.Whether enough to support a family I have no idea.My take is grinding online and playing ' controlled cash ' should with the right approach should suffice.


There,hope you don't mind my input.Please accept it in the spirit it is meant.

Sorry to finish on a cliche but results will only change when you change some of the things you are doing.
I think you already know that.
Hope to see you soon.Game face on and in the zone.

[titaniumbean]

All aaron1867 posts, I'm like

I always love a good thread that descends into gifs/pics.


Feel like you think each new post will explain it and then he shimmies past the pertinent part of the post.

[titaniumbean]

my advice is to concentrate more on the game,develop your game focus and build your confidence 'one hour at a time'  or ' one level at a time'  so you can go to a break saying to yourself ' I am really pleased with my game that level,I think I made optimum decisions' It is this which builds confidence.That is a better hour than learning that Madge is going out with Henry,Freds got banned from driving and have tou heard the one about the Irishmen,Scotsman etc.
      

Absolutely this.

[smashedagain]

Thanks Ian and Ryan both excellent responses too.

[millidonk]

These days poker is hard, study, get good at it or get a job. Night night, I''ve gotta be up early for work. Fml.

[CHIPPYMAN]

These days poker is hard, study, get good at it or get a job. Night night, I''ve gotta be up early for work. Fml.

 

[cambridgealex]

Hi Alex, not saying its the case with Jason as dont personally know him, but do you think a lot of the problems people have when they THINK they are not running well/getting results is that they just get complacent with the gameplay that used to (or they thought did) work for them. When i backed horses a lot i heard all sorts of rubbish from people in betting shops, but then met a really good professional gambler and could instantley tell what he said made sense, talking to a lot of you  on here has also made sense compared to bull you can pick up in various other places.

Yes, I think almost every losing player will put losing down to bad luck or variance and winning down to their own skill. This is of course not limited to losing players. Winning players are absolutely guilty of this, perhaps even more so than losers.

It takes an extremely astute, modest, and humble person to do otherwise 100% of the time. We all think we deserve to win sometimes, we deserved to knock x out because we've been outplaying him, or when we lose to y that it's injust because he's bad etc.

In my opinion, so much of being a professional poker player is in the mind, in the attitude of the player.

When there's an allin at a table, I always watch the faces of those involved rather than the cards. You can learn a huge chunk of what you need to know about someone (in a poker sense of course) from these moments. I find them fascinating actually. I'd go as far to say that you can spot a winner or a loser in these moments. You can definitely spot who has the right/wrong attitude towards the game and who might make a good professional or who won't.

Those that get rattled by losing, those that lash out, curse, or lose their cool even in small ways, are likely to struggle if they want to make their living out of poker. What I look for in a potential horse is those who are calm, respectful and who can embrace the variance with both arms and deal with the consequences in a mature and rational manner. That's a huge factor for me and goes above skill in many respects. I've turned down staking proposals from far better players than some who I've accepted, sometimes entirely because of this issue.

Similarly when I'm sharing a table with an unknown player, they becoming far more intimidating to me when they lose AA vs KK and don't flinch, smile and carry on with their game. When the guy with KK is fistpumping and shouting across the room to his mate, he becomes the easy target.

[celtic]

Jason, How many tournaments have you played this year?

[shipitonetime]

A lot of awesome posts ITT!

[Amatay]

Play recreationally. Your mindset and approach is completely wrong and nearly impossible to change. Thats not an insult, just purely a generation thing. The biggest mistake in life in terms of ££ the majority of people on here make is choosing to play poker for a living, especially the well educated under 25s- big short term gain but an astronomical longterm loss. Can put myself in that bracket when i made the decision

What do you mean by this mate?

[Dubai]

People that are smart enough to make a lot of money through poker, will probably be smart enough to make way more money in a job in the longterm. Only stipulations obviously would be well educated, live near London and be good with people. I have friends on 200-300k a year at 29/30 who can barely add up, have a bad degree from bad uni but got in the market straight after, are street wise, good with people and have therefore "made it"- their income is on the upswing whilst poker players potential earnings remain capped to an extent barring the 0.01% run good expectation that can happen.

In 5 years time whilst your friends will be looking to buy fancy gadgets, you will be looking to buy the companies that produce them

[cambridgealex]

lol you're the worst at passing quotes from films and TV shows as your own Dave

[SuuPRlim]

Good post Alex! Temperament is entirely crucial imo, a lot of people have a kind of deluded sense of entitlement with poker, and whereas this belief in their own ability is ofc a strong weapon in their arsenal, the mental unraveling that follows a string of "injustices" is likely there biggest leak.

I can't argue with the advice to grind online, study poker hard and really tighten up the fundamentals so you can earn the crust online and continue to chase raainbows live, it's good advice, and its absolutely what you should do, the question I have is do you have the capability, and the will to actually do this?

I fear Jason (and you know I love you and don't want to be harsh) that you're not going to be able to do it, if you can say "Yes! This is really what I want to do" then I'd say go for it and would be rooting for you, but to be brutally honest I think you just don't have it in you.

So either persue another source of revenue to provide for the family, or buckle up, strap in and get ready for a seriously tough grind.

As have said before over and over I genuinely want you to nail it, whatever that is