Confidence at an all time low so playing badly and clueless.

[T_Mar]

Haven't read all the posts ITT but a general observation people are far too quick to blame variance for bad results..  Pretty sure, if people played better they would be far less concerned about 'variance' - I know when I play, that I am up against variance (granted, I haven't played enough to feel the full force - not many people have)  ...but far greater than that I'm up against myself and my own ability/temperament/focus.  People would do well to forget about variance and concentrate on looking at themselves, and their own game imo

[smashedagain]

Excellent post from Action Man imo.

Inline with his post i think the following is worthy of thought.

To win a MTT tourney you will need luck and good timing, e.g

player a could get aces v kings 4 tournies in a row.
player b could get aces v kings 4 tournies in a row.

BUT the TIMING of when these hands occur in the tournament/and against whom can make a vast different to how much player a or player b win.
i.e
player a gets his aces in level one 3 times and final table once. They hold up all 3 times level one but lose final table he wins£500 say
player b gets his aces 3 times in level one and they hold, he then gets them on bubble and they lose, he wins£0
they could of both played as well as each other, but player a had better timing.
Very interesting discussions and opinions tho imo.

or god forbid they run into one of those fish that folds the kings pre flop

[atdc21]

they are like the guppy brother of the ones that fold jacks............. 

[atdc21]

oh wait a min, how did this all start..........

[atdc21]

All joking aside Jason, have you decided where you gonna go from here yet?

[Tal]

A lie down in a darkened room, I'd imagine.

[DaveShoelace]

He'll probably win the Genting series next weekend and in his winner interview say 'if it wasn't for luck I'd win all of em, sample size my arse, when are they next having that One Drop thing?'

[smashedagain]

All joking aside Jason, have you decided where you gonna go from here yet?

lol. Yeah touché as they say. Wp.
My next thread was going to be entitled "Confidence is high so playing well and in the zone".
I had actually thought about doing a hand by hand description of  the next tourney I play and just like Gus will obv be winning it. I really wanted to play the GPS in Sheffield next weekend but had forgotten that the wife is away Friday- Monday in Dublin with mates Christmas shopping. I don't expect her to comeback with much except a headache.

I have had a quite a few people sending pm's and the love and support on the forum is amazing. I have had some fun times at the table and it turns out quite a few people have enjoyed them too. Obv I might come across as a complete cockend at times but that's not my intention.


Edit: and for balance just got my first bit of hate mail from Milligan

[atdc21]

Doing report on tourney would be quite good idea in theory, but would prob mean you are spending too much time writing about hands gone than concentrating on hands being played, its all double edged swords
You dont fancy the £150 saturday?

[atdc21]

obv cant cos of shopping drip ldo.

[atdc21]

realised that after i posted it, still as mr gas would say, its another post towards the 300

[smashedagain]

It's GPS she is away for. This week she is at work till 4 but getting a sitter for a couple of hours ain't a problem

[atdc21]

ok, i will be there for a rare visit, if i see you will say hi.

[jakally]

Haven't read all the posts ITT but a general observation people are far too quick to blame variance for bad results..

100% agree with this.
Variance is massively over-played by good players, and is a constant hinderance to them becoming more profitable.

Players bring their technically proficient online games to live MTT's, have a bad run, and auto-blame variance.
Players who used to win, stop winning, and blame variance.
Players have a losing month, following a few winning months, and blame variance.

Sure luck is a short-term factor in results, especially in large field MTT's, but it should be one of the last things we look at, when trying to root-cause a bad run.

[Honeybadger]

Well said Neil. We cannot control variance so we might as well not worry about it. And we certainly should not get hung up on blaming it if we are on a bad run. By using a bad run as stimulus to examine and improve our play we can get something positive from negative variance. If we just write it all off to bad luck then we don't get this benefit.

There are two caveats to this, however.

First, it is important to recognise the effect of variance when examining our play. For example, imagine we make several good well thought out bluffs in a particular spot, but each time run into the top of villain's range and get called. We might end up starting to think that this is a bad spot to bluff in, even when it is in fact a good one and we have just been 'unlucky' each of the last few times. This is an example of how we need to understand that variance plays a big part in short term results, because if we don't do this then we can end up drawing an incorrect conclusion from these results. We should not absolve ourselves from responsibility for our results by writing it all off to variance. But we do need to constantly ask ourselves if the learning feedback we get from examining the cause/effect link between our plays and the results is 'real' or if it is merely a variance-based illusion. If we don't do this then we can end up modifying our play in the wrong way. It should always be remembered that the link between input and output (cause and effect) which is normally so rational in everyday life is extremely tenuous in any form of gambling. We need to understand variance in order to learn effectively.

Second, it is VERY worth thinking about variance when deciding which path to choose in our poker careers. Everything I have written in this thread about variance has had one goal - to explain that trying to make a regular living as a live tournament professional is a very, very bad idea. And the reason for this is because it seemed that Jason was under the impression that being a live tournament pro was a viable way of making a living.