England play the 4th ODI Cricket against India tomorrow
They are 2-1 down after playing poorly in the last two games
The fifth ODI at Dharamsala is in doubt due to....
This match is being played in the Punjab at Mohali. Traditionally it is the most seamer friendly ground in India.
It also tends to favour the side batting first. 14 of 20 ODIs have been won by the side batting first. Why? The games are day-night and batting second under lights in dewy conditions is tough.
So
- this is a "toss" match
- conditions favour England more than most Indian grounds
In a toss match, the underdog can often represent value as you are offered a "price" on a team that can get the best of conditions.....
Add to that the current situation in Mohali (playing a tour in the Indian winter...)
Quotes
"The prevailing extreme cold conditions in north India may affect the fourth India-England One-day International in Mohali on Wednesday with the nearby Shivalik and other ranges currently covered with snow.
The cold weather has affected the growth of grass in the outfield and on the pitch square. Due to the adverse conditions the ground is looking brownish, which is starkly different from the traditional lush green outfield at the Punjab Cricket Association (PCA) Stadium, said a top official.
"Since it's been snowing on the hills near Mohali, it has impacted this city too. It rained here day before and that has left moisture on the ground. We need bright sunshine to dry up the ground," PCA joint secretary GS Walia told Mail Today.
"Due to cold conditions,
pacers are expected to exploit the conditions that will help them move the ball appreciably. Since it is a daynight encounter, batsmen would find it difficult to cope with swinging deliveries especially in the second innings, which would be played in the evening when the temperature drops further," points out another PCA official.
(
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/england-vs-india-pacers-may-exploit-cold-conditions-at-mohali-odi/1/243074.html )
These are essentially two evenly matched teams, but conditions here should suit England's bowlers, and neutralise the Indian batting which generally does best on dry flat tracks, and the Indian spinners who England have some difficulites with
Because England have lost two in a row they are 6/4 underdogs
http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/india-v-england/odi-series/india-v-england-%5B4th-odi%5D/winnerWin the toss, they are odds-on
Lose the toss, and you have chances anyway, particularly for Steven Finn, to make 6/4 a sporting price because of conditions.
Recommendation
£25 win England at 6/4. Bet365
Author