Tips by Tighty

[Marky147]

I listened to the first hour of this on 5 Sports Extra last night and they had an interview with Menelik Watson. Footballers here often get stick when they're being interviewed for their tendency to use 'y'know' and 'd'ya know what I mean' a lot but Watson's interview almost had me crying with laughter once I noticed it. 'He's going to stop soon' I thought but no, it just got worse.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01s1pp5 (about 8:30 in)

Also, anyone who thinks that Barkevious Mingo has the best name ever obviously dosen't know that his brother is called Hughtavious.

I had to stop after 5 minutes...


I liked the 'Fortunately my brothers got sucked into the gang lifestyle, and I got to sit and observe, so I could stay out of it'

[tentwowilldo]

British Lions squad announced tomorrow and Sam Warburton currently 1/7 on betfair

[TightEnd]

British Lions squad announced tomorrow and Sam Warburton currently 1/7 on betfair

[TightEnd]

The Lions Tour Squad is announced at 11

Paddy Power have come up with a series of markets on the test team

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/rugby-union

see "Lions Tour"


If we take their markets for each position and tally up the number of English players they expect to be in the Test Side

We have

Full Back 0 Unlikely to be an English player in the squad
Wing 0 Unlikely to be English winger in squad
Centre 0  Tuilagi 3rd in betting
Fly Half 0 Farrell 2nd in betting
Scrum Half 0 Youngs 2nd in betting
Back Row 0 Croft 5th in betting
Second Row 0 Parling 3rd in betting
Prop 0 Cole 3rd in betting
Hooker 0 T Youngs 3rd in betting

Of course over a Tour injuries can happen to first choice players

but we have two things here

- strong rumours for example that Robshaw is not even in the squad. This might point to a lower English representation than previously thought.

- This is consistent with Gatland's pro Welsh thoughts and the final match of the Six Nations

Tieing this in to some work I was doing on these markets, I got a first choice Lions team of


Halfpenny
North BOD Roberts Cuthbert
Sexton Phillips
Warburton Faletau Tipuric
O'Connell AWJ
Healy Hibbard A Jones

No English, 11 Welsh


So then, take a look at

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/rugby-union/lions-tour-12?ev_oc_grp_ids=1228236

Under 2.5 English in the Test XV is a big bet in my opinion. Lets call in half tikay-kelly, £75 or so

The price here is completely inconsistent with Paddy Power's sub markets via position as outlined above

Either they are wrong, or this quote is wrong, unless we get unlucky on injuries in multiple positions to presumed first choice starters

Playing it the other way, the sub markets have 9 Welsh players in the favourites by position

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/rugby-union/lions-tour-12?ev_oc_grp_ids=1228235

Yet the starting Welsh players market is over 7.5

This is too low. You could have the other half tikay-Kelly on the Overs here

(they are correlated so you might choose to play one or the other)

Preferably done before 11am



edit

On the injuries. In only five positions if a first choice player in the betting is injured is an English player "next up"

Centre, where Tuilagi has a shot behind O'Driscoll and Roberts
Sexton at Fly half
Phillips at scrum half
Tight Head Prop, Dan Cole behind Adam Jones
Second Row where Parling has been played out of the assumed side by O'Connell

Injuries to all more than two of these? It can happen, but that would be unlucky variance

Injuries at fullback, wing, back row, hooker probably don't see English players next up



Announced 15 Welsh, 10 English, 9 Irish, 3 Scots

I have had £25 England under 2.5  £25  Wales over 7.5 in the first test side and £50 Wales top nation in 1st test at 1/4


Only two English three quarters
One English back row
One English second row

downsides two of three hookers English
three of six props English

Don't have these as firest choice though

[TightEnd]

"Now have a max bet Warburton £30 at 11-4, £20 at 4-1"

I won't be accounting for these as winners yet as B365 market I bet in is as follows



                                Event                                                         Event Date    
Sam Warburton    Who will start the 1st Test as Lions Captain?  22/06/2013
(Match Specials)    

[typhoon13]

"Now have a max bet Warburton £30 at 11-4, £20 at 4-1"

I won't be accounting for these as winners yet as B365 market I bet in is as follows



                                Event                                                         Event Date    
Sam Warburton    Who will start the 1st Test as Lions Captain?  22/06/2013
(Match Specials)    

Like Thank you

[TightEnd]

I have had £25 England under 2.5  at 6/4  now 5/6

Wales over 7.5 in the first test side  £25 at 5/4 now Evens

and £50 Wales top nation in 1st test at 1/4 - now 1/5

and one severely limited PP account it seems, if this evening is anything to go by. sigh (bets badly limited for the first time on that account)

[TightEnd]

£20 5/6 UKIP Over 17.5% share of national vote local elections as per TfT

[TightEnd]

Max bet £50 at Evens Ladbrokes.


If anyone wants to get on a bet at Evens when it should be short price odds-on?

Here's one for you

http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/politics/british-politics/south-shields-by-election-e216944105-m228702791

UKIP in the upcoming South Shields By-election..to finish second


See very little chance, in this all time safe Labour constituency, that the 20% who voted Tory last time don't move big time to the UKIP

that 20% was 7,886 votes in 2010 and just over 5,000 votes in 2005 and 2001 in what is a very small constiuency

UKIP have never fielded a candidate in this constituency

UKIP can poll 4-5k votes from LD and Cons in the by-election. Yes, I am pretty sure they can

Money tied up til 2nd May.

This was a very easy winner last night, +£50

Warburton Ladbrokes settled, +£80

So £130 to add

The original Warburton bet is a captain in 1st test bet, so remains until 22nd June

[TightEnd]

Updating

Profit £262.37 on £1527.75

ROI 17.1%

Still live

Mumbai 5-1/11-2
Trump 7-1
Middlesex e/w 7-1
e/w Northants County Champ Div 2 20-1,12-1
Warburton  Lions Captain  £30 at 11-4
UKIPT over 17.5% yesterday £20 5/6

[typhoon13]

Updating

Profit £262.37 on £1527.75

ROI 17.1%

Still live

Mumbai 5-1/11-2
Trump 7-1
Middlesex e/w 7-1
e/w Northants County Champ Div 2 20-1,12-1
Warburton  Lions Captain  £30 at 11-4
UKIPT over 17.5% yesterday £20 5/6

Fairly impressive sir

[TightEnd]

£20 5/6 UKIP Over 17.5% share of national vote local elections as per TfT

Winner

Profit £279.03 on £1547.75

ROI 18%

Still live

Mumbai 5-1/11-2
Trump 7-1
Middlesex e/w 7-1
e/w Northants County Champ Div 2 20-1,12-1
Warburton  Lions Captain  £30 at 11-4

[Karabiner]

The little bits and pieces that I've seen of Andy King have impressed me, especially his performance in that last game against Watford.

He was making last-ditch tackles in his own area too and up until now I'd thought of him purely as an attacking midfielder.

Is he good enough to play in the premiership?

[TightEnd]

The little bits and pieces that I've seen of Andy King have impressed me, especially his performance in that last game against Watford.

He was making last-ditch tackles in his own area too and up until now I'd thought of him purely as an attacking midfielder.

Is he good enough to play in the premiership?

Yes

When he broke through he was a "Gerrard type" attacking midfielder, breaking beyond the front two and scoring plenty of goals. Until teams worked out the style, he had a field day, and the late runs he made created chance after chance

He then was asked to play differently under Sven and had to refashion his game into more of a holding type, where he would be more box-to-box but much more cleaning up in front of the back four

This took a while, his form was patchy and he had an injury or two

In the second half of this season when the team was struggling he really came on strong again

he has displaced Drinkwater in the team and can be seen more as an all rounder. 8-10 goals a season but very effective with and without the ball

(It was he who was tracking Vydra back when Vydra scored the excellent volley yesterday)

Wouldn't be surprised to see a non-top 6 Premiership side take him in the summer

Only 24, 50 goals in 200 games or so and perfectly entitled to take a shot at the top league if the opportunity comes

I am a big fan. Not that you can tell.

[Karabiner]

The little bits and pieces that I've seen of Andy King have impressed me, especially his performance in that last game against Watford.

He was making last-ditch tackles in his own area too and up until now I'd thought of him purely as an attacking midfielder.

Is he good enough to play in the premiership?

Yes

When he broke through he was a "Gerrard type" attacking midfielder, breaking beyond the front two and scoring plenty of goals. Until teams worked out the style, he had a field day, and the late runs he made created chance after chance

He then was asked to play differently under Sven and had to refashion his game into more of a holding type, where he would be more box-to-box but much more cleaning up in front of the back four

This took a while, his form was patchy and he had an injury or two

In the second half of this season when the team was struggling he really came on strong again

he has displaced Drinkwater in the team and can be seen more as an all rounder. 8-10 goals a season but very effective with and without the ball

(It was he who was tracking Vydra back when Vydra scored the excellent volley yesterday)

Wouldn't be surprised to see a non-top 6 Premiership side take him in the summer

Only 24, 50 goals in 200 games or so and perfectly entitled to take a shot at the top league if the opportunity comes

I am a big fan. Not that you can tell.

I was surprised to see how young he is as he seems to have been a fixture in your team for ages, he looks to have a powerful build too.

He could turn out to be a good buy for someone, £5M maybe?