Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[Tonji]

The race consists of 5 flat stages that will likely end up in a bunch sprint. However, teams & riders can get decimated with the cross winds, so only the strongest survive.  Stage 2 breaks up the race with a 14km team time trial, long enough to shake up the overall classification, but not long enough to give the winning team an unbeatable time advantage.

Stage wins and time bonuses are important to winning the overall. A stage win nets 10, 6 & then 4 seconds, while 3, 2 and 1 second are on offer at intermediate sprints.

[Tonji]

Boonen’s absence has given Cavendish a GC opportunity. He will be keen to make an early impression on his new team mates. If he can avoid the puncture lottery and steer clear of any bad luck, then there is no reason why he can’t win 2 or 3 stages & take the overall. However a lot will depend upon his team mates. Cav will need to be sheltered from the desert winds if he is to influence the make up of the podium. I have my doubts on the early season strength of OPQS to ride echelons & bring Cav to the last few kms. Incidentally Cavs twitter suggests he is feeling the effects of travelling Argentina-Italy-Qatar in the past 3 days.

I think the winner maybe a durable sprinter, who can get some bonus seconds and never lose out in the crosswinds.

John Degenkolb (Argos-Shimano), impressed in the 2012 Vuelta with 5 stage wins. The team has just stepped up to the WorldTour level this year & will be looking to claim points early in the season. 

Daniele Bennati (Saxo-Tinkoff). 3rd in 2011.

Heinrich Haussler (IAM Cycling). In a new team the Ex-Garmin rider was 2nd in 2011.

EBH (Sky).  His form needs to be up a gear from what was seen in TDU. On paper one of the strongest teams in the race, but form looked patchy in TDU. I’ve lost a far few bob backing EBH over the past few years, the expected results have not materialised.


Another angle is to look at, is riders in the Boonen mould, strong Classics riders.

Fabian Cancellara (RadioShack). A previous stage winner here, & 7th last year. Strong team that will be one to watch in the stage 2 TTT. If the winds blows he may be able to give the sprint teams the slip to podium.

Taylor Phinney (BMC). A young rider, I expect to win some major one day classics in the next few years. Has ridden Qatar three times. Some solid experience in the team with Greg Van Avermaet, should give him the opportunity to use his time trialling ability to nick a stage. Reports of top quality winter training, & raring to go.

Juan Antonio Flecha (Vacansoleil-DCM). Could be the surprise of the race, although it shouldn’t be. Left Sky last year, with the goal to pursue personal ambitions that were not available working essentially as a super domestique. Has ridden Qatar four times, with a third & fourth overall. Now 35, but still one of the toughest riders in the peloton.

Will be offline later this afternoon & evening  & have not seen any markets on odds checker. If I can get John Degenkolb & Taylor Phinney EW at around 20/1, that’s where my money will go.

[Tonji]

If surprises are in order, keep an eye out for the Italian, Elia Viviani (Cannondale). Only 23, a world class track rider, he can mix it up with the sprinters.

[vegaslover]

Not had a look at the traditionals yet but betfair market got very little value in it. Only bennati at a half decent price

Viviani not even listed on betfair market yet so might be able to find a good price for him.

I'm gonna look at laying a few of the betfair market, prices too skinny to back

Edit:
Oddschecker has laddies giving 20/1 on phinney
                       laddies & bet365 give 100/1 on viviani

[Tonji]

Not had a look at the traditionals yet but betfair market got very little value in it. Only bennati at a half decent price

Viviani not even listed on betfair market yet so might be able to find a good price for him.

I'm gonna look at laying a few of the betfair market, prices too skinny to back

Edit:
Oddschecker has laddies giving 20/1 on phinney
                       laddies & bet365 give 100/1 on viviani

I think 365 & Skybet had some odds up briefly yesterday, but missed all, so no idea if any value was anywhere.

Anyhow stage 1, now live on Al Jazeera 

http://www.en.aljazeerasport.tv/Live/channel/global

[Tonji]

Looks as if the peloton has split into groups in the cross winds. Cav in a group behind. Degenkolb & Phinney in lead group.

[Tonji]

Peloton regrouped & chased down a 3 man break, catching them on the line. No big time gaps between the favourites.

[Tonji]

BMC are a good shout for tomorrows TTT.

[Tonji]

One of the unluckiest riders in bike racing, Johnny Hoogerland was hit by a car in training today. In the 2011 TDF he was hit by a team car.

[Tonji]

For those at a loose end, the TTT is underway. Tricky windy conditions.

English commentary http://sports-livez.com/channel/ch-5.php

[Tonji]

BMC win beating Sky by 5 seconds.

[Tonji]

GC after stage 2.

1 Brent Bookwalter (USA) BMC Racing Team 3:44:44
2 Taylor Phinney (USA) BMC Racing Team 0:00:06
3 Adam Blythe (GBr) BMC Racing Team 0:00:10
4 Greg Van Avermaet (Bel) BMC Racing Team
5 Michael Schär (Swi) BMC Racing Team
6 Bernhard Eisel (Aut) Sky Procycling 0:00:11
7 Edvald Boasson Hagen (Nor) Sky Procycling 0:00:15
8 Geraint Thomas (GBr) Sky Procycling
9 Mathew Hayman (Aus) Sky Procycling
10 Luke Rowe (GBr) Sky Procycling
11 Mark Cavendish (GBr) Omega Pharma-Quick-Step Cycling Team 0:00:20

[Tonji]

Stage 3. 143 km.

Click to see full-size image.

Wind report is stronger for Tuesday, then lessening the rest of the week.

The overall is a battle between BMC & Sky, with OPQS trying to get Cav into the final sprints, but with only 3 stages to go he will have to win 2 of the 3 to stand a chance in the overall. BMC look stronger than Sky, so will be looking to control the race. Easier said than done, with time bonuses along the route.

This stage may well be the only opportunity for a breakaway to succeed. The lesser teams will be looking to attack. After watching the TTT, FDJ was a team that impressed, particularly Yoann Offredo. He has ridden Qatar twice before, with strong finishes in the overall. A strong Classics rider, 7th in Milan-Sanremo 2011. 42 seconds down in the overall, he may not be considered a threat to the GC teams, & allowed to escape in a breakaway group. I got 250 EW with PP, a banzai for sure but I kinda like it 

[Tonji]

Cav too good. But can he win GC?

[Tonji]

Cav wins stage 4 in Qatar, he makes it look so easy. In a class of his own. He now has a 2 second lead in GC.

Wiggins apparently abandons in Mallorca Challenge race.

Tour Mediterraneen kicks off, with Voeckler, Schleck, Hushovd, Greipel, Kreder, Martin, Talansky, Roche, Kreuziger, Rogers, Boom, Sicard, Cousin, Peraud, Fedrigo, Pinot, Roux et al.