Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[Tonji]

 

[craigbetts]

Thread delivers, again.

[cheapwetsuit]

Nice one, Tonji. Think you've got the Midas touch at the moment. I was hoping Rui Costa would do the unthinkable, but all in all, I think we were pretty nailed on with our selections. Only surprised by Betancur in 4th, and Gilbert settling once again for 7th.

[Tonji]

Nice one, Tonji. Think you've got the Midas touch at the moment. I was hoping Rui Costa would do the unthinkable, but all in all, I think we were pretty nailed on with our selections. Only surprised by Betancur in 4th, and Gilbert settling once again for 7th.

A mini rush. Needed it, results were sparse earlier in the season.

Two weeks til the Giro, with the Tour of Romandie on tuesday.

[Tonji]

http://www.tourderomandie.ch/en/1-home

5 stages, starting with a 7.45km uphill prologue. Stage 4 is a mountainous with 4 category 1 climbs. Final stage 18km TT, relatively flat.

Sky Sports are taking the TV coverage so Chris Froome is under contract to win  followed by Richie Porte.

Battle for the final podium place I should imagine to be between Garmin's Talansky (2nd last year), Movistar's Valverde & Costa & OPQS's Tony Martin.

Outsiders, Katusha's Simon Spilak, he'll need to be in prime climbing form to gain time ahead of the final TT. Maybe Saxo-Bank's Roman Kreuziger can carry some of the Ardennes form into stage racing.

Cavendish is back in action, to fine tune his sprinting & to find some climbing rhythm ahead of the Giro.

[cheapwetsuit]

A few early thoughts on the Giro D'Italia:

The 2013 edition of the Giro is one for the time-triallists. Rumour has it that the organisers were keen to attract the winner of the Tour de France, and so designed a stage race that would suit Bradley Wiggins. That they have done. And unsurprisingly, when you look at the 93.5km of TT on offer, he is odds-on to win the red jersey. Second-favourite is Vincenzo Nibali, who is arguably a better climber than Wiggins, as well as more than useful in the time trial. Both riders have strong teams, Sky and Astana, who'll protect their leads through the flatter stages and see them through the TTT. There is no value in picking the winner of the Giro this year.

However, predicting the last place on the podium is a lot more interesting. The caveat here is that official startlists have not been issued yet, and so my predictions are based on those riders with widely-quoted odds (ie. it is likely they will be in the starting line-up).

Other than Wiggins and Nibali, there are no other proven TT riders in the field. I think I saw Phinney quoted somewhere, but he wouldn't last one day in the mountains. Porte is not certain to take part. Evans is past his best and won't threaten. Sanchez may surprise, but can't climb like he used to. And Hesjedal just about justifies his position as third-favourite. The rest (including Scarponi, Henao, Gesink and Uran), in my opinion, are mediocre at best (at time-trialling). Now the reason that this is interesting, is that when you're talking about 93.5km of cumulative TT, this could mean an advantage of as much as 12 minutes to a time triallist of Wiggins' ability. Maybe more. That is huge.

One name I haven't mentioned so far is Carlos Betancur. Users of this thread will probably know by now that I have an unhealthy obsession for this rider. Truth is, the kid can climb, and he should be there or thereabouts in the mountain stages, hopefully holding his own against Wiggins and Nibali over the Stelvio and Galibier. But can he time-trial? Not brilliantly, but he seems to be improving rapidly on that front, probably aware of the fact that it is a potential weakness. Recently, he finished 8th to Tony Martin in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco ITT, only about 20s behind Porte and Spilak over 24km. Unfortunately, he will lose time in the TTT (as AG2R are not the best in this discipline), but on the plus side he should be team leader now that Pozzovivo is injured.

We still don't know if he'll be taking part for sure, though. But at 250/1, I jumped on him e/w. He is now available @ 200/1 (888) and 150/1 (PP), and I recommend having a small (and obviously risky) bet e/w. If anything, he should give us a decent sweat. Hopefully, he won't use up all his energy in the Tour de Romandie starting tomorrow (more to follow...).

Another good rider at decent odds is Benat Intxausti @ 66/1. A decent TTist, he can climb as well, although I think he'll struggle to stay with the best in the field (Wiggins, Nibali, Basso, Hesjedal, Scarponi, Gesink, Uran and Betancur).

Also, if Michal Kwiatkowski announces that he will be doing the Giro, put your house on him to podium.

[cheapwetsuit]

The Tour de Romandie starts today, and you'd have to be a genius to pick the winner of this one. The two time-trial stages suggest that riders like Martin, Froome, Porte, Talansky, Valverde, Spilak, Peraud and Westra will have the advantage. But the queen stage on the fifth day (with four category 1 climbs) will throw other names into the mix: Costa, Rolland, Gesink, Basso, Betancur, Moreno and Danielson. Added to this is the fact that a lot of riders use the race to fine-tune for the Giro a week later, and so could take it relatively easy. This also leads to the potential for a breakaway to succeed. For all these reasons, I'm out.

But I'm also in. And that is because I like the look of the opening prologue, a 7.5km sprint up a category 3 climb. Having researched a fair number of time-trials for my previous Giro post, I'm going to put my knowledge to the test:

On paper, Tony Martin should win this stage. He is the best TT rider in the world, and he is in cracking form. For much the same reason, Porte should be second, and Froome/Talansky should round off the podium. But the short prologue TT is a strange beast, as the favourites often do not go full out on the first stage, the reason being that they have too much to lose (in an accident) and not enough to gain (time-wise). I predict that someone more motivated could upset the apple cart and put themselves on the podium in place of a marquee name. It just so happens that there is no shortage of time-trial talent in this year's Tour de Romandie (and e/w, there are some attractive prices). However, given that TTists prefer the flats, whether they survive the gradual climb over 7.5km is the million-dollar question. I have put money on all of the following (in order of preference):

Jean Christophe Peraud (33/1 @ Bet365) - great uphill TTist with 4th & 3rd in last 2 Nice-Col D'Eze (cat 1) ITT of Paris-Nice.
Adriano Malori (200/1) - IMO currently 2nd best TTist in the world under 10km on flat, behind Martin.
Manuelle Boaro (150/1) - 2nd to Porte, beat Froome (4) & Talansky (5) in 2013 Criterium ITT (7km).
Svein Tuft (250/1) - Canadian TT champion, 2013 Tour de San Luis ITT winner, good pedigree.
Marco Pinotti (200/1) - 5th in the 2012 Olympics ITT, 1st 2012 Giro d'Italia ITT, back from injury?

I'll let Fred decide how much exposure to take and how many to back (strongly recommend top three).

[Tonji]

Fantastic write up cws. Like your work. I've taken your recommends. gl us

Click to see full-size image.

Prologue profile.

Start Times:
http://www.tourderomandie.ch/images/etapes/00_depart.pdf

[Tonji]

Just for interest sake I've also taken a little EW on Talansky for the overall. 10/1 on skybet. Think that is a smidgen of value, as Porte looked a little flat in Ardennes & Talansky's Garmin team are on a bit of a high at the moment. Add in that he has been a winner for me this year & my new Illy coffee machine is just the best 

[Tonji]

One name I haven't mentioned so far is Carlos Betancur. Users of this thread will probably know by now that I have an unhealthy obsession for this rider. Truth is, the kid can climb, and he should be there or thereabouts in the mountain stages, hopefully holding his own against Wiggins and Nibali over the Stelvio and Galibier. But can he time-trial? Not brilliantly, but he seems to be improving rapidly on that front, probably aware of the fact that it is a potential weakness. Recently, he finished 8th to Tony Martin in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco ITT, only about 20s behind Porte and Spilak over 24km. Unfortunately, he will lose time in the TTT (as AG2R are not the best in this discipline), but on the plus side he should be team leader now that Pozzovivo is injured.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/giro-ditalia-betancur-and-pozzovivo-lead-ag2r-la-mondiale

Likely joint leaders. But certainly agree he'll be looking for an early win in the mountains.

[cheapwetsuit]

Terrible result in the prologue at the Tour de Romandie, with not one of my picks making the top 10. The gradient of the parcours definitely did not suit the pure time-triallists, which basically put paid to 4 of my selections. Was disappointed by Peraud's performance though, as he looked up for it at the beginning. Overall, no big surprises on the podium, with Kiserlowski impressing in 3rd place, in amongst Froome (1), Talansky (2) and Porte (4). No massive time gaps, but it looks like Froome's race to lose now. Oh well, what Daniel Martin giveth, cheapwetsuit taketh away.

[cheapwetsuit]

Just to add, Betancur really impressed in the prologue, and so my e/w recommend for the Giro still stands. And nice pick there with Talansky, Tonji. He really gave it everything.

[Tonji]

Terrible result in the prologue at the Tour de Romandie, with not one of my picks making the top 10. The gradient of the parcours definitely did not suit the pure time-triallists, which basically put paid to 4 of my selections. Was disappointed by Peraud's performance though, as he looked up for it at the beginning. Overall, no big surprises on the podium, with Kiserlowski impressing in 3rd place, in amongst Froome (1), Talansky (2) and Porte (4). No massive time gaps, but it looks like Froome's race to lose now. Oh well, what Daniel Martin giveth, cheapwetsuit taketh away.

no problems cws. I played it small ball. Onwards...

Busy week lined up here, so any stage info/thoughts most welcome. Hopefully I'll have some time over the weekend to look at the Giro more closely.

[Tonji]

A pretty good general introduction to the Giro.

[Tonji]

The official 2013 Giro d'Italia technical guide has been published.

There is a digitial version, in pdf format. 369 pages long 

http://www.gazzetta.it/Speciali/Giroditalia/2013/download/Garibaldi_2013.pdf