Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[cheapwetsuit]

Tonji, you are a legend. Would you mind giving me the Lotto numbers for tonight's draw?

[Tonji]

Tonji, you are a legend. Would you mind giving me the Lotto numbers for tonight's draw?

Love it when a plan comes together 

[Tonji]

No bet for me in the ITT. Tony Martin is too good, but todays breakaway may have it effects tomorrow. Adriano Malori or Svein Tuft may come close.

[cheapwetsuit]

I agree with you that in a win-only market, Tony Martin is too good to oppose in the time trial, so I'm waiting for later today in the hope that one or two bookies introduce an e/w market. Talansky at 250/1 (SkyBet) would then be impossible to resist. Adriano Malori @ 13/2 and Svein Tuft @ 15/1 don't represent nearly enough value, even though Malori should be in the mix come the end of the day. Saying that, I might be tempted to put a few quid on Manuelle Boaro, as he has been the one pure TTist that has impressed me thus far in the Tour de Romandie. At 40/1, he represents a bit of value given his 16th place finish in the prologue (which did not suit him), and his propensity to attack the peloton. Then again, I might just leave it alone.

[Tonji]

Giro d’Italia 2013. 4-26 May.

Click to see full-size image.

To me summer has arrived with the first of the seasons three Grand Tours. I've always associated each tour with an actress. The Giro is Isabella Rossellini, eccentric, beautiful, passionate & a little bit nuts!

Click to see full-size image.

[Tonji]

Click to see full-size image.

Sir Wiggo, bookies make him favourite. Personally I have him joint favourite with Nibali. The volume on Wiggins has probably shortened his price.

This years lead up to the Giro could not have been more different to last year ahead of the Tour, where he won everything. The Sky training philosophy for the Giro has been altered specifally.

This article in Guardian explains well the work & methods of Wiggins coach Tim Kerrison. http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/apr/27/bradley-wiggins-giro-tim-kerrison

Over the past year or so Sky have dominated in stage races. Using the Sky train to strangle the life out of the peloton. I think they understand the difference between the TdF & the Giro, with it's steeper climbs & more open attacking racing. Hence the need for Wiggins to be able to defend or attack if necessary by himself when isolated on the final climbs. The Sky team is packed strong, packed with climbers & diesels. But ultimately Wiggins will have to suffer on his own when the race will inevitably fracture on the approach to the summits in the final week.

Stage 8, a 54.km ITT, will be the first objective to gain as much time as possible into his rivals. He'll be looking for minutes not seconds.

The final week with four big mountain stages & a mountain ITT will be where the race is won or lost.

[Tonji]

Vincenzo Nibali (Astana). The 28 year old Italian, has won the Vuelta, 3rd in the TdF & two top 3 finishes in the Giro. He is desperate to win this, & probably thinks this year is his best chance with only Wiggins standing in his way.

His form in the lead up has been pretty impressive. Winning Tirreno-Adriatico & Giro del Trentino.

Head to head against Wiggins, the career stats give Nibali a slight edge. Although recent results will swing it back in favour of Wiggins.

Nibali's perceived weakness will be in the ITT. Last year in two 50km+ time trials he lost over 3 minutes each to time to Wiggins. This season he has ridden two shorter ones & seems to have found some improvement. Any loses of much more than 3 minutes in the Giro ITT will, I think, be considered a blow to his overall chances.

His Astana looks equally as strong for the mountains as the Sky team. With Fredrik Kessiakoff as his super domestique & the talented young climber Fabio Aru to provide the final lead out in the mountains. Janez Brajkovic, Paolo Tiralongo & Alessandro Vanotti have a wealth of Grand Tour experience to back him up.

[Tonji]

Some quotes from Wiggins at yesterdays press conference.

On Nibali. “I’ve studied him; I watched him closely in Trentino. He’s difficult to read: he doesn’t bluff, but he doesn’t show any emotion. He’s very crafty."

“There’s a lot at stake for him in this race. He’s the big Italian favorite and he’s trained for this. This is his event, his one big race.”

On the race: “But because of the things we’ve been doing this year, I’ve got more confidence, more belief in my climbing ability. I still don’t know at this stage whether I will stay with Nibali on some of those tough finishes, the real steep ones, but I know I will certainly not lose more than a handful of time — [it will be] seconds here and there, maybe 20 seconds if I’m on a bad day.

“But I’m pretty confident I can stay with him whatever he throws at me. That’s all I have to do, really, because I’m confident in time trials. From what I’ve seen, I can beat him. Looking back, I beat him by 6 minutes, 19 seconds at the Tour last year. Which is quite a lot. I only have to win the Giro by one second.”

[Tonji]

Ryder Hesjedal was last years surprise winner. I think his odds pre race were in the region of 50/1. This year he's at 10/1.

A bit of an enigma is Ryder, he does his own thing. He disappears in the winter to Hawaii & returns to Girona in Spain for the race season. He builds slowly in performance for one objective, the overall results pre the Giro matter not one jot. This season has seen only the briefest of glimpses of potential form. Noteably his breakaway ride in Liège - Bastogne - Liège in support of Dan Martin. 2012 followed a similar build up, so who knows what level he will be at the start. Comments to the media after Romandie suggest he feels his form is better than last year.

This years Giro will be a tougher race. I think to make the podium will be tougher than last years win. His Garmin team has not yet confirmed their full rider lineup, but will include plenty of experienced riders including the veteran Christian Vande Velde.

[Tonji]

Samuel Sanchez (Euskaltel - Euskadi). The Spaniard is now 35 & his last appearance at the Giro was in 2005.

2013 season start has not seen anything to suggest he'll be a contender for top 3. However, a fine 2nd in stage 5 of the Tour of the Basque Country shows on his day he still has the potential to be in the final overall mix. Top 5 is only possible if he finds the early season form he seemed to have last year before his crash in the TdF.

[Tonji]

Another veteran looking to finish off his career with a final tilt at a GT podium is Cadel Evans.

It was a late decision from Evans to come to the Giro, & to also ride the TdF. Strange one that for a rider at the end of his career. Not sure what to make of it really. Is the Giro a build up for the TdF?

An up & down start to the season, has seen a promising start with a podium at Oman. Followed a lacklustre showing at Tirreno & Critérium International, & finally glimpses of the gritty performances of old at Trentino.

The BMC team although not confirmed yet, look to be short in experienced climbers for the mountains. 3rd spot on the podium is a possibility, but it will be a hell of an achievement, probably gained by his dogged determination & single minded approach to racing.

[Tonji]

Next up, the Italian Michele Scarponi (Lampre). A previous winner (by default with the exclusion of Contador) in 2011, & 4th in 2012.

He will need to have the the climbing form he had in 2011 as he is likely to lose 3 minutes plus in the ITT. He'll be looking at the final week in the mountain stages to move up the overall GC standings. This season has seen some solid form in Catalunya particularly. Top 5, with a decent shot of the podium.

[cheapwetsuit]

Loving the write-ups on the Giro contenders, Tonji. Keep them coming.

I've been interested by the odds offered by BetVictor on the Team Classification result. They have Sky favourite @ 1.95 and Astana second @ 2.88, with the rest of the teams apparently out of contention. According to WikiPedia, "in the Trofeo Fast Team classification, the times of the best three cyclists per team on each stage are added; the leading team is the team with the lowest total time". This would suggest, given the profile of this year's Giro parcours, that the team with the 3 best climbers and the 3 best TTists, will win the team classification. Although Sky and Astana definitely have claims, I do not think they deserve to be such overwhelming favourites. In fact, given Sky's siege tactics, their best climbers are more than likely to lose time to other teams in the mountain stages by first giving their all for Wiggins, and then by tactically slowing down the chasing pack. I can just as easily see teams like Blanco @ 14/1 (Kelderman (C/T), Kruijswijk (C/T), Gesink (C), Clement (T)) and Movistar @ 18/1 (Intxausti (C/T), Herrada (C), Dowsett (T), Cobo (C)) challenging for honours.

What are your thoughts?

[Tonji]

Loving the write-ups on the Giro contenders, Tonji. Keep them coming.

I've been interested by the odds offered by BetVictor on the Team Classification result. They have Sky favourite @ 1.95 and Astana second @ 2.88, with the rest of the teams apparently out of contention. According to WikiPedia, "in the Trofeo Fast Team classification, the times of the best three cyclists per team on each stage are added; the leading team is the team with the lowest total time". This would suggest, given the profile of this year's Giro parcours, that the team with the 3 best climbers and the 3 best TTists, will win the team classification. Although Sky and Astana definitely have claims, I do not think they deserve to be such overwhelming favourites. In fact, given Sky's siege tactics, their best climbers are more than likely to lose time to other teams in the mountain stages by first giving their all for Wiggins, and then by tactically slowing down the chasing pack. I can just as easily see teams like Blanco @ 14/1 (Kelderman (C/T), Kruijswijk (C/T), Gesink (C), Clement (T)) and Movistar @ 18/1 (Intxausti (C/T), Herrada (C), Dowsett (T), Cobo (C)) challenging for honours.

What are your thoughts?

Not had a look at the team classification. I don't disagree with your thoughts. Worth checking the regulations http://images2.gazzettaobjects.it/Speciali/Giroditalia/2012/en/Regulation.pdf as there seems to a team classification by points & time.

[Tonji]

Heck, got a busy day. But over breakfast had a look at

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/giro-d-italia/top-10-finish

Steven Kruijswijk 8/1 with PP. He was 8th in 2011. An improving rider, solid in the mountains. He will be supporting Robert Gesink, one of the most unpredictable GC contenders. Blanco need a good showing. A touch of value.

Tom Danielson again PP are out of line @ 8/1. He is a regular top 10 finisher in stage races. 4th in Romandie, he has some form coming into the Giro.