Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[Tonji]

Heck, got a busy day. But over breakfast had a look at

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/giro-d-italia/top-10-finish

Steven Kruijswijk 8/1 with PP. He was 8th in 2011. An improving rider, solid in the mountains. He will be supporting Robert Gesink, one of the most unpredictable GC contenders. Blanco need a good showing. A touch of value.

Tom Danielson again PP are out of line @ 8/1. He is a regular top 10 finisher in stage races. 4th in Romandie, he has some form coming into the Giro.

price disappeared sharpish

[Tonji]

Been looking at the King of the Mountains betting

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/giro-d-italia/king-of-the-mountains

My initial thoughts centred around Mauro Santambrogio. But after seeing the Vini Fantini team lineup including Stefano Garzelli & Matteo Rabottini, I've changed my thinking. Santambrogio has talked in the media about looking for a high placing in the overall. So it's possible his team mates will be called upon to support him. That lessens the chances of them getting into early breakaways & racking up points in the mountain stages.

Need a rethink

[Tonji]

Stefano Pirazzi & his Bardiani Valvole team look to have set up with the goal of KOM jersey. Pirazzi was 2nd in that classification in 2012, seems to have reasonable form this year so 5/1 seems a fair price.

But I also think there is some EW value. 

Gianluca Brambilla (OPQS). With Cavendish looking for stage wins & the points jersey. Brambilla a climber will be given a free reign in the mountains to have a tilt at the KOM. The young Italian has some excellent experience of the Giro. In 2011 he was 4th in KOM on his first visit. 2012 he was 3rd in the young rider & 13th overall. He did not feature in the mountains class because he was riding in support of Prazzi & Pozzovivo. This season he seems to have been under raced, but I'm not so concerned as 2011 followed a similar pattern. Available at 80/1. In my mind he should be a 20/1 shot.

Finally the Team Columbia have come to light up the mountain stages with their traditional long range attacks. Two names in the frame, John Darwin Atapuma & Fabio Andres Duarte. Not much to choose between the two, but Atapuma looks to edge it in recent form. 22/1.

[Tonji]

Loving the write-ups on the Giro contenders, Tonji. Keep them coming.

I've been interested by the odds offered by BetVictor on the Team Classification result. They have Sky favourite @ 1.95 and Astana second @ 2.88, with the rest of the teams apparently out of contention. According to WikiPedia, "in the Trofeo Fast Team classification, the times of the best three cyclists per team on each stage are added; the leading team is the team with the lowest total time". This would suggest, given the profile of this year's Giro parcours, that the team with the 3 best climbers and the 3 best TTists, will win the team classification. Although Sky and Astana definitely have claims, I do not think they deserve to be such overwhelming favourites. In fact, given Sky's siege tactics, their best climbers are more than likely to lose time to other teams in the mountain stages by first giving their all for Wiggins, and then by tactically slowing down the chasing pack. I can just as easily see teams like Blanco @ 14/1 (Kelderman (C/T), Kruijswijk (C/T), Gesink (C), Clement (T)) and Movistar @ 18/1 (Intxausti (C/T), Herrada (C), Dowsett (T), Cobo (C)) challenging for honours.

What are your thoughts?

Not had a look at the team classification. I don't disagree with your thoughts. Worth checking the regulations http://images2.gazzettaobjects.it/Speciali/Giroditalia/2012/en/Regulation.pdf as there seems to a team classification by points & time.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/giro-d-italia/team-classification

Did you take the earlier prices cws?

I'm also thinking Garmin?

[Tonji]

Loving the write-ups on the Giro contenders, Tonji. Keep them coming.

I've been interested by the odds offered by BetVictor on the Team Classification result. They have Sky favourite @ 1.95 and Astana second @ 2.88, with the rest of the teams apparently out of contention. According to WikiPedia, "in the Trofeo Fast Team classification, the times of the best three cyclists per team on each stage are added; the leading team is the team with the lowest total time". This would suggest, given the profile of this year's Giro parcours, that the team with the 3 best climbers and the 3 best TTists, will win the team classification. Although Sky and Astana definitely have claims, I do not think they deserve to be such overwhelming favourites. In fact, given Sky's siege tactics, their best climbers are more than likely to lose time to other teams in the mountain stages by first giving their all for Wiggins, and then by tactically slowing down the chasing pack. I can just as easily see teams like Blanco @ 14/1 (Kelderman (C/T), Kruijswijk (C/T), Gesink (C), Clement (T)) and Movistar @ 18/1 (Intxausti (C/T), Herrada (C), Dowsett (T), Cobo (C)) challenging for honours.

What are your thoughts?

Not had a look at the team classification. I don't disagree with your thoughts. Worth checking the regulations http://images2.gazzettaobjects.it/Speciali/Giroditalia/2012/en/Regulation.pdf as there seems to a team classification by points & time.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/giro-d-italia/team-classification

Did you take the earlier prices cws?

I'm also thinking Garmin?

Quote from Movistar's Pablo Lastras in the Spanish media "The goal is to do as in 2011 and 2012: get wins, do a top ten and winning the team classification"

Good enough for me.

[Tonji]

Giro d'Italia 2013: Insight in the first week

[Tonji]

Stage 1.



http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/giro-ditalia-stage-1/winner

Can't see past Cav winning, although the first stage is always nervous & the potential for crashes is higher in the first week.

Goss & Degenkolb, both have teams that will be able to provide a final lead out.

Outsiders, Sacha Modolo. He beat Cav in the early season Tour de San Luis. Mattia Gavazzi a winner in the warm up race Giro della Toscana.

Banzai outsider. Taylor Phinney is a better sprinter than 150/1.

[cheapwetsuit]

Loving the write-ups on the Giro contenders, Tonji. Keep them coming.

I've been interested by the odds offered by BetVictor on the Team Classification result. They have Sky favourite @ 1.95 and Astana second @ 2.88, with the rest of the teams apparently out of contention. According to WikiPedia, "in the Trofeo Fast Team classification, the times of the best three cyclists per team on each stage are added; the leading team is the team with the lowest total time". This would suggest, given the profile of this year's Giro parcours, that the team with the 3 best climbers and the 3 best TTists, will win the team classification. Although Sky and Astana definitely have claims, I do not think they deserve to be such overwhelming favourites. In fact, given Sky's siege tactics, their best climbers are more than likely to lose time to other teams in the mountain stages by first giving their all for Wiggins, and then by tactically slowing down the chasing pack. I can just as easily see teams like Blanco @ 14/1 (Kelderman (C/T), Kruijswijk (C/T), Gesink (C), Clement (T)) and Movistar @ 18/1 (Intxausti (C/T), Herrada (C), Dowsett (T), Cobo (C)) challenging for honours.

What are your thoughts?

Not had a look at the team classification. I don't disagree with your thoughts. Worth checking the regulations http://images2.gazzettaobjects.it/Speciali/Giroditalia/2012/en/Regulation.pdf as there seems to a team classification by points & time.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/giro-d-italia/team-classification

Did you take the earlier prices cws?

I'm also thinking Garmin?

Quote from Movistar's Pablo Lastras in the Spanish media "The goal is to do as in 2011 and 2012: get wins, do a top ten and winning the team classification"

Good enough for me.

I ended up taking the price offered on Blanco. In the case of Movistar, I've rationalised that they've committed too few of their leading lights to the Giro to demonstrate a serious conviction for team classification honours. Just one of Valverde, Quintana, Castroviejo or Costa would have made all the difference. In previous years, they've had a stronger team.

As for Garmin, the more I look at them, the more I think they look like the only team in the tour with no weak links. They're best @ 12/1 at the moment (10/1 on any of my accounts). I'd like a little more to convince me to take the plunge. Definitely think that you should.

[cheapwetsuit]

Stage 1.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/giro-ditalia-stage-1/winner

Can't see past Cav winning, although the first stage is always nervous & the potential for crashes is higher in the first week.

Goss & Degenkolb, both have teams that will be able to provide a final lead out.

Outsiders, Sacha Modolo. He beat Cav in the early season Tour de San Luis. Mattia Gavazzi a winner in the warm up race Giro della Toscana.

Banzai outsider. Taylor Phinney is a better sprinter than 150/1.

Hmmmmm. I wasn't going to bet on today's cavalry charge, but if you're picking Phinney, I'm going to go for Robbie Hunter e/w @ 125/1. Defo a better sprinter than the price suggests.

[Tonji]

Loving the write-ups on the Giro contenders, Tonji. Keep them coming.

I've been interested by the odds offered by BetVictor on the Team Classification result. They have Sky favourite @ 1.95 and Astana second @ 2.88, with the rest of the teams apparently out of contention. According to WikiPedia, "in the Trofeo Fast Team classification, the times of the best three cyclists per team on each stage are added; the leading team is the team with the lowest total time". This would suggest, given the profile of this year's Giro parcours, that the team with the 3 best climbers and the 3 best TTists, will win the team classification. Although Sky and Astana definitely have claims, I do not think they deserve to be such overwhelming favourites. In fact, given Sky's siege tactics, their best climbers are more than likely to lose time to other teams in the mountain stages by first giving their all for Wiggins, and then by tactically slowing down the chasing pack. I can just as easily see teams like Blanco @ 14/1 (Kelderman (C/T), Kruijswijk (C/T), Gesink (C), Clement (T)) and Movistar @ 18/1 (Intxausti (C/T), Herrada (C), Dowsett (T), Cobo (C)) challenging for honours.

What are your thoughts?

Not had a look at the team classification. I don't disagree with your thoughts. Worth checking the regulations http://images2.gazzettaobjects.it/Speciali/Giroditalia/2012/en/Regulation.pdf as there seems to a team classification by points & time.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/giro-d-italia/team-classification

Did you take the earlier prices cws?

I'm also thinking Garmin?

Quote from Movistar's Pablo Lastras in the Spanish media "The goal is to do as in 2011 and 2012: get wins, do a top ten and winning the team classification"

Good enough for me.

I ended up taking the price offered on Blanco. In the case of Movistar, I've rationalised that they've committed too few of their leading lights to the Giro to demonstrate a serious conviction for team classification honours. Just one of Valverde, Quintana, Castroviejo or Costa would have made all the difference. In previous years, they've had a stronger team.

As for Garmin, the more I look at them, the more I think they look like the only team in the tour with no weak links. They're best @ 12/1 at the moment (10/1 on any of my accounts). I'd like a little more to convince me to take the plunge. Definitely think that you should.

Yep, I went Movistar & Garmin, 14/1 & 10/1.

Also like your Blanco bet, but wanted just two against the favourites.

[Tonji]

Stage 1.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/giro-ditalia-stage-1/winner

Can't see past Cav winning, although the first stage is always nervous & the potential for crashes is higher in the first week.

Goss & Degenkolb, both have teams that will be able to provide a final lead out.

Outsiders, Sacha Modolo. He beat Cav in the early season Tour de San Luis. Mattia Gavazzi a winner in the warm up race Giro della Toscana.

Banzai outsider. Taylor Phinney is a better sprinter than 150/1.

Hmmmmm. I wasn't going to bet on today's cavalry charge, but if you're picking Phinney, I'm going to go for Robbie Hunter e/w @ 125/1. Defo a better sprinter than the price suggests.

That's the joy Cycling betting. You can have a short priced favourite, but so many scenarios are possible. Run the stage 100 times & you'd get 20 different winners.

I initially also thought a no bet stage, but looking at the prices I had to get involved.

Your bet on Robbie Hunter 125/1, I'd expect in the region of 30/1. Phinney again I'd think 30/1 is a fair price.

Good luck us  

[Tonji]

Click to see full-size image.

Looking lean & mean at yesterdays Team Presentation. I hope Brad wins, I'm a fan, but have some lingering doubts.

[Tonji]

Cav post race interview 

http://video.eurosport.se/cykel/giro-d-italia/2013/etappvinnarens-groda-fuck-this-is-this-live_vid275969/video.shtml

[Tonji]

Many of the teams have not done a full recon of the stage. Their first look will be this morning.

Technical & tricky in parts a small mistake will be costly, especially as 20 seconds or so will likely separate the top 5 teams.

Sky, Garmin, OGE & BMC are generally the better prepared teams for TTT. I don't see an awful lot of difference between them. I've gone for BMC, they start 3rd to last after their main rivals gaining a little advantage. In the betting 10/1 seems some value.

[Tonji]

The guys at GCN are following some of the young riders at the Giro.