Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[cheapwetsuit]

Well done, Tonji. Once again your predictions were in the money. Hope you had a wedge on Nizzolo e/w.

For today's stage, I'm betting against a breakaway again, since they don't seem to be very successful this year (touch wood). Given that Nibali doesn't need to risk an attack today (better left for tomorrow), and that Uran and Evans will be heavily marked, I'm going with either Betancur or Santambrogio to win, with Henao as a wildcard. I should probably dutch the three of them, but I much prefer making it an equal stake with the reward being greater the bigger the winner's odds. I still feel Henao owes me for the other day ... and I am seriously tilting.

Again, the bookies don't seem to have missed a trick, with the only reasonably attractive odds being for Majka to win @ 33/1 (e/w 1-2-3). Although he impressed the other day, I'm more confident that he'll finish in 4th or 5th place, rather than on the podium. I just feel that the competition is too good. I'll be more than happy for him to prove me wrong, though (since my Kelderman/Aru bet is dead in the water).

I'm really looking forward to today's racing, and can't wait to see what Sir Wiggo's demise does for my Blanco bet  . I feel sorry for him, but I still hope that his chest infection is contagious.

[Tonji]

Cheers for the continued updates Tonji - a very enjoyable read/watch as usual!

ty Vic.

[Tonji]

Well done, Tonji. Once again your predictions were in the money. Hope you had a wedge on Nizzolo e/w.

For today's stage, I'm betting against a breakaway again, since they don't seem to be very successful this year (touch wood). Given that Nibali doesn't need to risk an attack today (better left for tomorrow), and that Uran and Evans will be heavily marked, I'm going with either Betancur or Santambrogio to win, with Henao as a wildcard. I should probably dutch the three of them, but I much prefer making it an equal stake with the reward being greater the bigger the winner's odds. I still feel Henao owes me for the other day ... and I am seriously tilting.

Again, the bookies don't seem to have missed a trick, with the only reasonably attractive odds being for Majka to win @ 33/1 (e/w 1-2-3). Although he impressed the other day, I'm more confident that he'll finish in 4th or 5th place, rather than on the podium. I just feel that the competition is too good. I'll be more than happy for him to prove me wrong, though (since my Kelderman/Aru bet is dead in the water).

I'm really looking forward to today's racing, and can't wait to see what Sir Wiggo's demise does for my Blanco bet  . I feel sorry for him, but I still hope that his chest infection is contagious.

Hi cws

Yes <10% breakaway succeeds today. With tomorrow likely to have a reduced stage, the GC men needed to sort it out on todays final climb.

Last night I had 365 open when the stage betting was published. Betancur was 7/1 until I clicked the bet & it had changed to 4/1  So I got Pozzovivo @ 11/1, that'll teach em!

I think Henao or Cataldo  can play a big part today. If Cataldo has recovered from illness I'm pretty sure he'll be asked to repeat the ride from last years Vuelta where he won that epic mountain stage. Small bet with BetV @ 100/1 win only.

As you say the bookies are pretty much in line. Maybe Niemiec & Inxausti have a touch of EW value, but both are probably top 5 at best. Also feel Gesink could put in a great ride, no evidence other than some hints coming out of Blanco.

[Tonji]

Update on todays stage. The Sestriere climb has been taken out due to bad weather.

Click to see full-size image.

Finish is still the long climb up to Jafferau, but fresher legs for a larger % of the peloton. Advantage Nibali & Astana in being able to control the stage.

[Tonji]

No TV pictures, maybe see the last 100m as riders appear out of the mist.

Thankfully twitter feed keeps me updated.

Rumours tomorrows stage could be cancelled.

[Tonji]

Santambrogio & Nibali 1 & 2. Strongest today.

[cheapwetsuit]

A reasonably successful day today, with Santambrogio winning the stage, and improving his chances for a podium finish. Still early doors though. As for Blanco, however, they now have to decide what they want out of this Giro. With Gesink struggling out of the top 10 today, they managed to lose a lot of time in the team classification, by sacrificing Kelderman, Kruijswijk and Garate for their team leader. If they (and I) want to win anything this year, now's the time to cut Gesink loose.

[Tonji]

A reasonably successful day today, with Santambrogio winning the stage, and improving his chances for a podium finish. Still early doors though. As for Blanco, however, they now have to decide what they want out of this Giro. With Gesink struggling out of the top 10 today, they managed to lose a lot of time in the team classification, by sacrificing Kelderman, Kruijswijk and Garate for their team leader. If they (and I) want to win anything this year, now's the time to cut Gesink loose.

Nice going cws. Nibbles, Santa & Beta have proved to be the class climbers of the race.

Did you have Beta for the young rider class? He's just 7 sec behind Majka, whose Saxo team are now down 3 riders.

[Tonji]

At the moment the route is originally as planned but without the last 4km

Click to see full-size image.

[Tonji]

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/giro-ditalia-stage-15/winner

My sweat for the stage. Not my work, but a tip from a mate who's well clued up. The Colombia team always look to be in the breaks in the big mountains. Jarlison Pantano, available at 150/1.

[Tonji]

http://www.raisport.rai.it/dl/raisport/direttaGiro2013.html

No action yet, but Italian commentary is fast & furious! 

[Tonji]

Todays highlights.

[Tonji]

Rest day today.

Click to see full-size image.

Giro is into the final week & it gets tougher still.

[Tonji]

A really open stage with a >50% chance of a breakaway succeeding. A good betting stage to throw a few darts. Winners are often in 50/1+ range.

The final week & some teams will be looking to rescue something from the Giro.

With Gesink dropping away in the mountains & with it any GC hopes, Blanco will be looking for a stage win. Stef Clement is likely to be given the go ahead to get in the break. A strong ITT shows he has some strength & form.

Team Colombia will be active, but I've not had any luck picking which one makes the crucial break. Anyone of Atapuma, Duarte, Pantano or Chalapud.

Cannondale, I've been impressed with Damiano Caruso, but at only 10 minutes down I doubt he'd get any leeway. Cristiano Salerno, Cameron Wulf, or Jose Sarmiento are all good candidates.

Euskaltel - Euskadi have looked to get riders away. Egoi Martinez is the usual suspect.

Garmin do have a stage win already but will want to be involved. I'd be looking at Danielson who had been going ok, however he was was 27 minutes down on the last stage, either he's sick or saving energy.

The most attacking team has probably been Vini Fantini. Despite having Santambrogio in the mix for the podium they seem to always get someone in the break. Di Luca, Rabottini or Garzelli look decent for this stage.

Pieter Weening of Orica GreenEdge has been having ago, but has not made an attempt stick. Maybe it's the turn of Jens Keukeleire.

RadioShack still have the full compliment of riders. Tiago Machado is a bit of a breakaway specialist.

A rider showing some decent form of late is Franco Pellizotti of the Androni team, but perhaps too close to the GC to get any freedom.

[Tonji]

The days break has formed. It includes Damiano Caruso at only 10 mins down. Interested to see how Astana & other teams work on this stage to bring them back.