Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[Tonji]

Tweet from OPQS that Martin "He trained this morning, felt ok. Ready for the stage"  bugger!

looks like a win for Martin.

Some interesting times coming in!

[cheapwetsuit]

Top of my list then is Michal Kwiatkowski (same as Tonji), although he is now a less-attractive 18/1. He gets most of my money. Another two names I fancy are Stef Clement (20/1) - good TT form at the moment (although might be tired, and usually better on a lumpy course) - and Lieuwe Westra (25/1) - solid, experienced time-triallist (although had a bad crash on Stage 2).

Names I've passed on are Michael Rogers (too old, past his best), Sylvain Chavanel (surely top 10, but no podium), Rohan Dennis (possible upset, but too inexperienced), Marco Pinotti (lost me money already this year), and Jonathan Castroviejo (will probably kick myself for leaving him out... hope he finishes 4th).

Can't complain too much, although I made no money today. My analysis was there or thereabouts, but obviously I would have been happier if Dennis and Kwiatkowski had switched places. Well done to the young Australian. Onwards and upwards ... literally.

[Tonji]

Top of my list then is Michal Kwiatkowski (same as Tonji), although he is now a less-attractive 18/1. He gets most of my money. Another two names I fancy are Stef Clement (20/1) - good TT form at the moment (although might be tired, and usually better on a lumpy course) - and Lieuwe Westra (25/1) - solid, experienced time-triallist (although had a bad crash on Stage 2).

Names I've passed on are Michael Rogers (too old, past his best), Sylvain Chavanel (surely top 10, but no podium), Rohan Dennis (possible upset, but too inexperienced), Marco Pinotti (lost me money already this year), and Jonathan Castroviejo (will probably kick myself for leaving him out... hope he finishes 4th).

Can't complain too much, although I made no money today. My analysis was there or thereabouts, but obviously I would have been happier if Dennis and Kwiatkowski had switched places. Well done to the young Australian. Onwards and upwards ... literally.

Good stuff cws. Will have a closer look at the times later, but I think they may be revealing for the prospects of some in the TdF.

I remember earlier in the week Vaughters hinting on twitter that one of his riders is in top top shape....guessed that with Talansky sick he must have been referring to Dennis. But like yourself thought a top 10 was as good as he could expect. 

[Tonji]

Dauphine ITT suggests that Roland, Valverde, Contador, Rodriguez and Van den Broeck still have work to do. We'll see how their climbing legs are tomorrow.

[Tonji]

Stage 5.

Not looked 

cws any thoughts?

[cheapwetsuit]

Gresy-sur-Aix to Valmorel. It all comes down to the final 12.7km with an average gradient of 7%. With Team Sky on the case, and their man in second place, you can forget about a breakaway succeeding. Chris Froome loves this sort of finish and is justifiably the favourite. However, I am getting pretty excited by this stage, as I think some of the pricing is way out of line.

First off, Alberto Contador @ 16/1 (Bet365 and WillHill)) is incredible. Sure, he had a terrible time-trial, and he kept wiping his nose like he was sick (apparently suffering from allergies), but the fact is that the man is the best climber in the field. And this sort of long, arduous, energy-sapper suits him to a T. Add to that the fact that he always seems to bounce back from a bad stage, and a decent e/w bet here is a no-brainer. I can understand Rodriguez being at shorter odds than him, but Valverde, Rolland, Sanchez and Moreno? Madness! I don't care if he is sick ... or if he has a broken leg, for that matter.

Next up, Jose Herrada (100/1 @ Paddy Power) is amazing e/w value. Sure, he'll have Valverde's back, but he is one of the best ascenders in the field on his day. And, to be honest, Valverde was very disappointing in the TT yesterday, ending his chances of a top-three finish, so Movistar might just have other plans. A podium might be out of his reach today, but at 100/1, he is worth the stretch. Just think back to all the stage wins that Movistar had at the Giro, and you'll see there's value to be had here.

My last tip is my new e/w friend Michal Kwiatkowski. I don't expect him to win this stage (although at 100/1 @ WillHill I would usually be tempted). He's the sort of climber that manages to hang on to a group, never launching any attacks ... just sticking around. Very capable, but not one for the podium presentation at the end of the day. But even though I'm not backing him myself in tomorrow's stage, that won't stop me recommending him to the speculative punter, because his odds are way OOL. The truth is, I've got too much invested in him already. And I've just lumped some more on at Coral (25/1 to win overall, e/w 1/5 odds). That's effectively 4/1 for a podium (once you subtract the win stake) when Betfair have him at 1.03 (albeit illiquid). Get some!

[Tonji]

Cheers cws.

I'm out all day, so a speculative 100/1 EW on Kwiatkowski. Agree a possible tag on behind Frome to nick a 3rd. It does look a stage for the Sky boys to show their strength & throttle the life out of the peloton. Apparently PP initially priced Froome @ 8/1  but was quickly suspended. 9/4 best this morning, rarely back favourites but on today.

Good luck with the bets.

[vegaslover]

Haven't seen any of the cycling on tv this week. It's on at bad time for me. Been too busy with house move stuff to even look at the markets, but who the hell thought Contador was 16/1. Woulda snapped that if I saw it.

I reckon Contador holding a bit back for TdF, he loves the game play of cracking riders in climbs

[Tonji]

Haven't seen any of the cycling on tv this week. It's on at bad time for me. Been too busy with house move stuff to even look at the markets, but who the hell thought Contador was 16/1. Woulda snapped that if I saw it.

I reckon Contador holding a bit back for TdF, he loves the game play of cracking riders in climbs

Froome looks to have his measure at the moment. But over three week Grand Tour...., we'll see. I'd still have Froome as strong favourite.

[Tonji]

Stage is set for sprinters who can climb. Its possible QPQS will set a fast pace to drop the fat boys with chubby legs (Bouhanni & Viviani).

This leaves the likes of Meersman, EBH & Gazzavi to fight out the sprint. Gavazzi is always under the radar with the bookies despite some strong results on these types of stages. He must be in decent shape, coming in ahead of his fellow sprinters on todays mountain stage. I had 50/1, but think Hills are still at 40/1 & seems decent value imo.

I'm also on Michael Matthews. OGE are looking for wins & Matthews is the best bet with a strong 2nd on stage 3, just mistiming the sprint. 18/1 ftw in a few places.

[Tonji]

Haven't seen any of the cycling on tv this week. It's on at bad time for me. Been too busy with house move stuff to even look at the markets, but who the hell thought Contador was 16/1. Woulda snapped that if I saw it.

I reckon Contador holding a bit back for TdF, he loves the game play of cracking riders in climbs

Froome looks to have his measure at the moment. But over three week Grand Tour...., we'll see. I'd still have Froome as strong favourite.

the last 5km, vegas.

[MahoganyVic]

Contador out to 9/2 for the Tour de France!


Worth a punt?

[Tonji]

Contador out to 9/2 for the Tour de France!


Worth a punt?

Been pondering what price Contador is value. Froome looks near 100%, I'd say Contador is perhaps in 90% shape, he generally will be 100% come the start. Still Froome fav for me. But 4/1 or better looks decent.

Incidentally, the probable TdF Saxo team is looking strong for support for the mountain stages. 

[Tonji]

http://cyclingtips.com.au/2013/06/the-secret-pro-3/

If your not aware already of the Secret Pro, worth a read.

[Tonji]

Contador out to 9/2 for the Tour de France!


Worth a punt?

Been pondering what price Contador is value. Froome looks near 100%, I'd say Contador is perhaps in 90% shape, he generally will be 100% come the start. Still Froome fav for me. But 4/1 or better looks decent.

Incidentally, the probable TdF Saxo team is looking strong for support for the mountain stages. 

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/contador-im-where-i-want-to-be