Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[Tonji]

Debateable how this stage pans out. With the first big mountain stage tomorrow many will prefer an easy day.

The bookies have priced it up for a bunch sprint for the big boys, fair enough. But this is one of the stages breakaway riders & teams with no GC ambition will have targeted. I'd estimate this has circa 20% chance of succeeding but I love a banzai with a price to match.

Lieuwe Westra 400/1. Vacansoleil rider at over 40 mins down on GC, so no threat. He has been active already in breaks. Interestingly he came in over 5 mins today, an indication that he is saving energy. No mean rider, he won a stage at the recent Tour of California, with a similar profile to this stage. Second in Paris-Nice 2012.

He who dares...

[Tonji]

Added in Edvald Boasson Hagen. Can't ignore the fella, despite me having lost chunks on him in the past, he's on form & 25/1 EW looks decent. Due a return!

Was him or the other Norwegian Kristoff.

[Tonji]

Lieuwe Westra finished with the fat boys! 

EBH continues to loose me chunks,  6th, with better positioning he really should have got a top 3.

Still managed to get 4/1 on Froome for tomorrow 

[MahoganyVic]

Had to dash out with about 50k to go but kept checking live odds on betfair. EBHwas huge second favourite (something like 4.0 compared to sagan 1.6) for almost all of the final part of the race. Just watched replay and he seemed to get bullied out of it a bit in the finish. So frustrating

[Tonji]

Had to dash out with about 50k to go but kept checking live odds on betfair. EBHwas huge second favourite (something like 4.0 compared to sagan 1.6) for almost all of the final part of the race. Just watched replay and he seemed to get bullied out of it a bit in the finish. So frustrating

THE most frustrating rider ever...

Lost position early in the run in when he was on Sagan's wheel, & was then boxed in staying left, erghhhh

NO MORE EBH EVER 

[Tonji]

Click to see full-size image.

First day to glimpse the true form of the GC contenders. Probably in overall terms a minor skirmish. Sunday is another mountain stage followed by a rest day & then relatively flat until the 14th with the major Mont Ventoux climb. I don't imagine massive time gaps between the main protagonists.

Froome I think is favourite for the win. I'm reliably informed by an Italian sports scientist who studies the riders power data that Froome is able to break the record time (22:57) on Ax-3-Domaines.

Although a break could succeed if they pose no threat to the overall, expect Euskaltel riders to be present.

With the temperature expected to touch 30 degrees the Spaniards will feel right at home. Valverde, Rodriguez & Contador will have to attack Sky early in the Tour if they want to upset the favourite, particularly with the injury problems Sky have suffered. If they want to succeed an early attack on Col de Pailhères may be the way to go about it.


 

[Tonji]

Garmin still confident despite problems. 4 riders in the top twenty, 22 seconds down. Strength in numbers. Boom or Bust! like the attitude.

[cheapwetsuit]

I think I've managed to spot a little bit of value in the TdF, and I've left it till just before the mountains to maximise returns:

The rules for the King of the Mountains competition are as follows:

"The general best climber ranking is established by adding together the points obtained on all passes and hills, according to the following tables:
• “Highest level” passes: 25,20,16,14,12,10,8,6,4,2 points respectively for first 10 riders to finish;
• Category 1 passes: 10,8,6,4,2,1 points respectively to the first 6 riders to finish ;
• Category 2 passes: 5,3,2,1 points respectively to the first 4 riders to finish;
• category 3 passes or hills : 2, 1 points, respectively to the first 2 riders to finish;
• category 4 passes: 1 point to the first rider to finish.
Points awarded are doubled for finishing on the 8th, 15th, 18th and 20th stages."

The same rules applied in 2011 and 2012. However, last year when Thomas Voeckler won the KOM jersey, there were only 2 summit finishes (both Cat 1), meaning that the competition favoured a more combative rider. In 2011, with 4 summit finishes, the doubling of points arguably had a major impact on the end result. The following insight is lifted from the 2011 TdF wiki:

"Early analysis led to speculation that the mountains classification winner would be more likely, under this system, to be a general classification contender than in years past.[9] This speculation proved accurate, as Samuel Sánchez, who finished 6th in the general classification, took the polka-dot jersey, and the top three finishers in the GC were in the top five of the mountains classification."

In 2013, there are again 4 summit finishes ... and 6 mountain stages with Category 2 climbs or higher.

At the moment, in the 2013 event, Blel Kadri is the leader of the KOM on 12 pts. His odds are currently 33/1 to win the competition.
The favourite, at 3/2, is Pierre Rolland (currently on 11 pts). A contender for the general classification, he will not be given room to ride in the breakaways, and instead will have to win the polka-dot jersey by out-climbing the other GC riders head-to-head. I do not think that this is very likely with climbers like Froome, Contador, Quintana, Rodriguez, Valverde and Evans in the field.
Somewhat surprisingly, Voeckler is generally a 4/1 second-favourite. Even though it is my theory that the nature of the competition will not suit him this year, I also believe that he is not in the best of form this year, and that he will struggle to match his outstanding performances from 2012 (when he won 2 stages).

So naturally, it is my contention that one of the GC contenders, and not a combative rider, will walk off with the polka-dot jersey this year. The only realistic threat to this assumption comes in the shape of Stage 19, where 2 HC climbs come within the first 100km, meaning that an attacking rider could conceivably snatch up 50 points. Caveat emptor.

So who then?
Chris Froome (16/1)? No. He doesn't need to win stages to win the yellow jersey. Although, he should be there or thereabouts in the final reckoning.
Joaquim Rodriguez (25/1)? At his best, definitely. He would be my pick on last year's form. But this year, he has yet to show me that he has the goods.
Nairo Quintana (16/1 ... 20/1 @ SkyBet)? Definitely e/w value. But then I am a bit of a fanboy.
Alberto Contador (40/1)? An e/w certainty if my theory holds. This price makes no sense to me. A born stage winner who does not like to finish second.
Cadel Evans (100/1)? Says he is in great shape. Should be up there with the leaders in the mountains. And is a very attractive price for a punt.

I suggest you pick your horses before the start of today's stage. I'm going with the last 3 for overall KOM (although Thomas De Gendt for the stage).

[Tonji]

Thanks cws, like your thoughts on this.

I've already had some on Froome on the basis I think he'll win at least two of the mountain top finish stages.

Will add Contador & the mighty Quintana EW.

[Tonji]

The third biggest sporting event in the world.

The winner will get 450,000 euros, fair enough I suppose. The top riders will have multi million euro contracts & sponsorship deals.

10th will get 3,800 euros 

Your a domestique & you finish the Tour in say 109th spot, a major sporting achievement in itself. You've spent three weeks & nearly 3500 km killing yourself, you'll receive 400 euros

It's certainly not about the cash!

[Tonji]

Beautiful approach to the Pyrennes.

Thomas pulling Sky on the front, he'll have to find his own way once on the climb.

[MahoganyVic]

Quintana on the attack!

[TightEnd]

Quintana on the attack!

Come on!!

Sky are in a bit of trouble here aren't they?

[Tonji]

Quintana on the attack!

Come on!!

Sky are in a bit of trouble here aren't they?

Riding Sky style... we'll see on the final climb

[Tonji]

Sky certainly under pressure, but Porte looks cool.

Great racing...fantastic stage.