Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[Tonji]

Been out of the cycling loop this week, it's all been punting short priced, but well built women swimmers at the World Champs 

Off on hols tomorrow. Will be missing the Eneco Tour, but back in time for Vuelta a España, starting on 24th August.

Anyone spot any markets or news for the Vuelta please post away.

[Tonji]

back back back...

Just noticed PP have a market up for the USA Pro Challenge. Just a heads up that value to be had, in that Froome & Porte are rebuilding for the Worlds & are unlikely to be challenging, more likely Dombrowski will be given a lead roll. TJ rightly favourite, but value in some big priced Columbians imo

[Tonji]

Vuelta a España starts on Saturday.

http://www.lavuelta.com/indexen.html



As usual teams are slow in confirming their line-ups, but the next few days should have them all firmed up.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/vuelta-a-espana/winner

[Tonji]

back back back...

Just noticed PP have a market up for the USA Pro Challenge. Just a heads up that value to be had, in that Froome & Porte are rebuilding for the Worlds & are unlikely to be challenging, more likely Dombrowski will be given a lead roll. TJ rightly favourite, but value in some big priced Columbians imo

Froome & Porte dropped in the 1st stage  

Interesting finish, not that Sagan won, he's been training at altitude, but who was in the front finishing bunch. TJ, Danielson, Schleck & Kloden, all in close attention. But also one I think has a real shot at this, Acevedo. He is in top form with 3rd place in the Tours of Utah & California. He was 50/1 yesterday.

Dombrowski certainly leading Sky, only 5 sec down, was good value at 33/1 yesterday.

Tomorrow's stage will be a true sort out of the GC, with the highest pass in pro cycling at over 3500m.

[cheapwetsuit]

Think I've missed the boat on this one, Tonji. I can't seem to find odds for the USA Pro Challenge anywhere. Just as well really, as the way I ran in the Eneco Tour, I ought to stay away from cycling for awhile. I almost tipped something on TfT, but the odds shortened as I was typing my recommend, so I didn't bother. Every cloud has a silver lining though, as two days later, everything had been turned on it's head.

I've been looking out for attractive odds in the Vuelta, and have been struggling terribly. Is there anything to the theory that participants from the Tour de France tend to fade away in the last week of the Vuelta? If so, there might be a playable edge. Saying that, I think Nibali has it sewn up, and everyone else is riding for the places. Guys like Betancur, Scarponi, Uran and Ulissi are taking my fancy, but I can see a lot of negatives with all of them. It's a real head-scratcher at the moment. I hope something jumps out at me.

Good luck with your tips for the US event. If I can find a book somewhere, I'll be sure to get on. Welcome back.

[Tonji]

Hi cws,

I'm on with Skybet, although I can't see any prices back up today, but I'd assume they would have tumbled.

Just started looking at the Vuelta. I took Nibali a few weeks ago at 3/1 & happy with that. Especially after what seemed a decent 3rd at Vuelta a Burgos, where your man Quintana won.

I think the general consensus is that going from the Tour to the Vuelta is not ideal, but I'd need to check if the stats back that up.

I not sure what to make of Betancur not racing for 3 months? If he has the Giro form a top 3 is a decent shout imo.

[Tonji]

Note to self & others to remember. Andy Schleck, if improvement in form continues, he'll be taking a serious tilt at Il Lombardia in October. From a big hint given to the US media!

[Tonji]

Sadly it seems the demise of the orange jersey in the peloton is now inevitable with the news that the Basque team Euskaltel Euskadi will be no longer at the end of the season 

[Tonji]

Sky have prices back up for the US Pro C.

European riders generally struggle in this event. The time difference & racing at altitude lead me to look for the Americans or Colombians.

Dombrowski shortened to 16/1 (probably about right now, as Sky team looked weak in the first stage) & Acevedo to 18/1 (still a touch of value in the place part, top 3 possible if his form is anything like his showing at Utah).

TJ too short at 6/5 imo. He has not raced since the Tour, it's difficult to be 100% first race back & could fade.

Garmin have the strongest team here & proven history in this race. Danielson (lives locally & his season revolves around this race) at 8/1 has value, especially coming off the win at Utah.

[Tonji]

Think I've missed the boat on this one, Tonji. I can't seem to find odds for the USA Pro Challenge anywhere. Just as well really, as the way I ran in the Eneco Tour, I ought to stay away from cycling for awhile. I almost tipped something on TfT, but the odds shortened as I was typing my recommend, so I didn't bother. Every cloud has a silver lining though, as two days later, everything had been turned on it's head.

I've been looking out for attractive odds in the Vuelta, and have been struggling terribly. Is there anything to the theory that participants from the Tour de France tend to fade away in the last week of the Vuelta? If so, there might be a playable edge. Saying that, I think Nibali has it sewn up, and everyone else is riding for the places. Guys like Betancur, Scarponi, Uran and Ulissi are taking my fancy, but I can see a lot of negatives with all of them. It's a real head-scratcher at the moment. I hope something jumps out at me.

Good luck with your tips for the US event. If I can find a book somewhere, I'll be sure to get on. Welcome back.

http://velonews.competitor.com/2013/08/news/why-is-quintana-skipping-the-vuelta-it-wasnt-on-his-schedule_299670

Why Quinatana is not at the Tour, but also answers some of your thoughts on riding the Tour & Vuelta in the same year.

[Tonji]

Some bets made for the Vuelta...

King of the Mountains. The KOM is generally won in the Vuelta by a rider from a lesser team not competing for the General Classification.

Rules are a bit complicated, but info here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountains_classification_in_the_Vuelta_a_Espa%C3%B1a#Rules

This year the race will have 13 mountain stages, arguably tougher than the Tour & Giro. So I've looked for a rider in form, with a history of competing for the KOM, in a lesser team, Spanish, & not having ridden in the recent Tour.

Amets Txurruka, the Caja Rural rider is having the best season of his life having won the mountains jersey at recent Vuelta a Burgos. This year has also seen him prominent in the mountains points completion at Norway & another win at Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco. The Pro Continental team will have this as a prime objective for the race. He has ridden the Vuelta five times all solid performances.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/vuelta-a-espana/king-of-the-mountains

Recommend £10.00. I've taken 13/2 on 365, but just noticed 7/1 available on Betty.

[vegaslover]

Cheers Tonji
Just had a small bet on him

[Tonji]

Cheers Tonji
Just had a small bet on him

good luck us 

I'm on Nibali for the overall, but with a single lingering doubt. I'd be pretty sure his real motivation is for the Worlds in Florence a few weeks after the end of the Vuelta...we'll see.

[Tonji]

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/vuelta-a-espana

Pretty sure, there some decent opportunities in the various markets here.

Not enough time in the day...

[Tonji]

A few thoughts on the GC battle in Vuelta.

Nibali's win at the Giro was impressive, despite the tough conditions he was never really challenged. I'd expect Spain in mid summer to be a greater challenge. Astana obviously expect a win, sending a really strong team in support including Jakob Fuglsang, a excellent 7th in the Tour, & the talented Janez Brajkovic, well capable of a top ten. I've heard rumours that Nibabli is not at his optimum racing weight, this may be that his real aim for the back end of the season is the World championships in Florence at the end of September. Generally around 2/1 at the moment.

The Spanish challenge comes from Rodriguez & Valverde. Both finished strongly in the final week of the Tour. It's debatable if it is possible to ride a top ten finish in the Tour & follow it up with a similar or better performance in the Vuelta. Stats seem to suggest a small drop off in performance generally but not conclusively for the top experienced riders.

Valverde has a remarkable record in the six Vuelta's he has ridden, never out of the top ten, with a win & two second places. Movistar were one of the strong teams in France & look to be similar in Spain. Last year he came out of the Tour to finish 2nd in the Vuelta. He knows how to get the job done. Around 4/1 currently.

In 2010 Rodriguez finished the Tour a solid 7th, & followed it up with a 4th in the Vuelta. He certainly would love to win his home Tour having finished on the podium in all the Grand Tours, but never on the top step. At 34 his time is running out, but the parcours this year is suited to his climbing abilities. Particularly the mountainous ITT, an area he could have lost time if flat. He'll be motivated for sure. In the region of 3/1 at present.

Those three look set as a solid top 3, but Grand Tours rarely work like that. There is probably another six riders capable of riding to a podium position, circumstances & form over the three weeks ebb & flow.

More tomorrow....time permitting.