Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[Tonji]

1. Barguil, 2. Nocentini, 3. Mollema.

The young 21 year old Argos Shimano rider caught the more experienced pros napping. Top prospect, he won the Tour de l'Avenir last year, an indicator of future GT tour winners.

[Tonji]

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Andorra & the first of three proper high mountain stages in the Pyrenees.

The stage includes the Envalira mountain pass. With an altitude of 2409 metres this is the Alberto Fernandez (highest point) climb of this year’s edition of the Vuelta, 20 points up for grabs the early break should consist of riders looking for big points. Go Txurruka.

The final should be a battle of the GC guys, although not necessarily if a non threatening break gets away. 

Forecast is not great.

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The books have Rodriguez marginal favourite 4/1 to Nibali 8/1.

We saw Nibali dominant in appalling conditions at the Giro, if he's got the legs & sees any weakness he'll attack to extend his time gap.

It'll be interesting to see how Purito will approach this stage. He lives locally & knows the climbs extremely well. He's 2.33 down, & needs to attack earlier than he would necessarily like.

I find it hard to believe that Horner can keep the same climbing power shown earlier in the race. His lack of racing & age surely will tell in the big mountains.

Valverde is a wise pro, I suspect his moves for the red jersey will be played out later next week, but he's quite capable of following wheels & nicking the time bonuses as & when they arise.

Two riders have impressed & exceeded my expectations are Basso & Pozzovivo. Both look to be in their best form.

[Tonji]

I've taken a small interest in Gerrans @ 50/1 with BetVic. He had a crash earlier in the race, but if he's recovered well he should be 2nd or 3rd favourite. He normally targets one stage, this is probably it. If not OGE will be backing Matthews.

Gerrans came in with the grupetto. It turns out he had fractured his hip in the stage 3 crash. He's now abandoned!

[cheapwetsuit]

Hey Tonji. I've been a bit quiet lately. Truth is that I haven't been confident enough to recommend anything this Vuelta. Too many surprise results keep me second guessing myself. That being said, some of my bets are still alive ... some are long since dead in the water. One thing I have been doing the last couple of days is snapping up Txurruka for KOM at attractive prices. IIRC when you recommended him, he was 6/1 or 7/1. He can now be had at 8/1 (PP and Coral) ... and sometimes even more at Betfair. Unlike the TdF, the Vuelta doesn't assign double points for mountain-top stage finishes. Looking at the stages to come, there seem to be plenty of mid-stage points available for breakaway riders with KOM ambitions. Txurruka showed his hand today, but was unfortunately upstaged by Scarponi. With Scarponi now knocking on the door of the top 10, this won't be allowed to happen again. Top up with Txurruka methinks

[Tonji]

Hi cws, I was relieved to see Txurruka get involved yesterday, even more so that Caja Rural managed to get a team mate with him on the cat 1 climb to help him out. Looks to me like there are four serious attempts at the KOM jersey. Txurruka, Marczynski, Ullisi & Edet. I'd certainly have Txurruka the fav, but with a small concern that yesterday may have taken its toll in trying to actually win the stage. Lets hope he has good powers of recovery. Personally I've not topped up, but only in that I'm fully committed already & well exposed with Nibali for the overall.

Don't be afraid to throw out any thoughts. I tend to put up my thoughts on the race, read between the lines & you'll get an idea of where my bets go. Any recommends are more clear. I'd not been involved so much this Vuelta, was a tad ahead thanks to the Koning stage win, then I plunged heavily on Martin at evens in the ITT & then boom Cancellara throws in his best TT performance in years, urgggghhhhhh, that stung, but....

Its the nature of cycling in that the races are so unpredictable.

Today looks a tricky betting day, bad weather, some strong climbers outside the top ten, & with two tougher days ahead.

Just for info, I've gone small speculative bets, FTW on Pozzovivo @ 16/1 & Majka EW @ 66/1

[Tonji]

I'll be keeping a watch on Luis León Sánchez in breaks.  “Now we are arriving to some promising stages when the breakaways will be successful. It’s going to be some nervous racing. My legs are feeling good. I think my chances are pretty good.”

Belkin are three riders down, it's all about stage wins now.

[Tonji]

I'll be keeping a watch on Luis León Sánchez in breaks.  “Now we are arriving to some promising stages when the breakaways will be successful. It’s going to be some nervous racing. My legs are feeling good. I think my chances are pretty good.”

Belkin are three riders down, it's all about stage wins now.

True to his word, Sanchez has made it into an early 5 man break....

[Tonji]

GCN guys do a great job with these behind the scenes videos.

[Tonji]

LL Sanchez abandons! Euskatel attack en masse! Descents treacherous! No TV pictures! No idea how this is going to pan out...

[Tonji]

TV back, weather looks horrible.

[Tonji]

Basso abandons.....this really is a bizarre race

[Tonji]

Basso abandons.....this really is a bizarre race

abandons with hypothermia!

[Longy]

First day watching the Vuelta this year and it is absolute carnage.

Weather is grim, sure this is being held in Spain?

[Tonji]

First day watching the Vuelta this year and it is absolute carnage.

Weather is grim, sure this is being held in Spain?

It's been perfect weather until today. Forecast not great for the weekend, in danger of severe number of abandons & riders missing the time cut off.

[Tonji]

Nibali looked like he was on a training ride, really comfortable.