Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[Tonji]

Women's Elite RR. Marianne Vos as usual outstanding favourite. She wins for fun, but not totally unbeatable...

I've got a small EW interest in Sarah Gillow 66/1.

Would like to write up more, but too much work on at the moment.

A few names for the Men's RR later I hope.

[Tonji]

Tomorrow has a 90% chance of rain. Chances of a surprise result increased in race that was open already with such a high quality field & National teams likely to struggle in controlling things.

[Tonji]

A brief view on tomorrow's men's RR. 

At over 270km & over 3500m of vertical gain, it's one of the longest of the year, finishing with a tough 10 lap circuit of Florence. The best are here, top one day racers & GC guys all looking for the rainbow jersey. All with a chance depending on how the race is tactically run & the element of luck needed to top a field of 207 riders in 7 hours or so of racing.

Weather, likely to pee down. The descents are fast, the surface smooth, the best bike handlers avoid the carnage if lucky.

Race scenario. Teams like GB, Spain & Italy have a common goal in making a fast early pace. They need to drop & tire the likes Sagan, Cancellara & Gilbert. Riding full gas should make for a select group of the strongest come the final two circuits. I'd see something like a final group of 20-30 riders with a smaller group of 3 or 4 off the front by a few seconds. From watching the previous races, the climbs are not as difficult as predicted. A strong puncheur can make it if in top shape.

My bets at the moment.

Main bet FTW is Sagan @ 5/1. has drifted a touch, PP have 6/1 now. Close call between Cancellara. But Sagan wins for fun, able to sprint or ride away from a group. Climbing better than ever. One negative is he's not proven over 250km.

Dan Martin FTW @ 28/1. Two great wins this year in long tough races, notably at Liège-Bastogne-Liège. Shown glimpses of his climbing power in TOB, & can finish fast in a select group.

Diego Ulissi EW @ 50/1. Impressed at the Vuelta, & still in great form with a second at GP Costa Degli Etruschi. Negative, likely to be an option after Nibali, but should be used to attack in the later stages.

Martin Elmiger @ 1000/1 on betty  (to trade later) Cancellara's team mate, having one of the best seasons of his career, particularly strong at the moment, has finished three times in the top twenty at the Worlds. Underrated & under the radar.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/world-championships/elite-men-road-race/winner

Loads of big prices available, some firms paying EW top 4. Value to be had, but I think more than a few darts need to be thrown!

Betty in play will be fun tomorrow!

[vegaslover]

A brief view on tomorrow's men's RR. 

At over 270km & over 3500m of vertical gain, it's one of the longest of the year, finishing with a tough 10 lap circuit of Florence. The best are here, top one day racers & GC guys all looking for the rainbow jersey. All with a chance depending on how the race is tactically run & the element of luck needed to top a field of 207 riders in 7 hours or so of racing.

Weather, likely to pee down. The descents are fast, the surface smooth, the best bike handlers avoid the carnage if lucky.

Race scenario. Teams like GB, Spain & Italy have a common goal in making a fast early pace. They need to drop & tire the likes Sagan, Cancellara & Gilbert. Riding full gas should make for a select group of the strongest come the final two circuits. I'd see something like a final group of 20-30 riders with a smaller group of 3 or 4 off the front by a few seconds. From watching the previous races, the climbs are not as difficult as predicted. A strong puncheur can make it if in top shape.

My bets at the moment.

Main bet FTW is Sagan @ 5/1. has drifted a touch, PP have 6/1 now. Close call between Cancellara. But Sagan wins for fun, able to sprint or ride away from a group. Climbing better than ever. One negative is he's not proven over 250km.

Dan Martin FTW @ 28/1. Two great wins this year in long tough races, notably at Liège-Bastogne-Liège. Shown glimpses of his climbing power in TOB, & can finish fast in a select group.

Diego Ulissi EW @ 50/1. Impressed at the Vuelta, & still in great form with a second at GP Costa Degli Etruschi. Negative, likely to be an option after Nibali, but should be used to attack in the later stages.

Martin Elmiger @ 1000/1 on betty  (to trade later) Cancellara's team mate, having one of the best seasons of his career, particularly strong at the moment, has finished three times in the top twenty at the Worlds. Underrated & under the radar.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/world-championships/elite-men-road-race/winner

Loads of big prices available, some firms paying EW top 4. Value to be had, but I think more than a few darts need to be thrown!

Betty in play will be fun tomorrow!

Nice write up fella, as always.

Really hard to see past Sagan, as you state he is a much better climber than what he gets recognition from, just depends on his team being strong enough to support him.
Dan Martin looks a cracking shout at those odds.

[Tonji]

Still got another three on a short list, vegas. So many you can make a case for...

Should be a cracking race, enjoy.

[Tonji]

Still got another three on a short list, vegas. So many you can make a case for...

Should be a cracking race, enjoy.

Oh & the Spanish, they've been quite in the build up. Sure to feature at some stage, but maybe the expected poor weather could dampen their chances.

[Tonji]

Underway...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cycling/24306085

Live on BBC2 at 2.15.

[Tonji]

Some thoughts on teams & riders likely to feature on the final circuits on what could be an open race.

Belgium: Gilbert & Van Avermaet, some disagreement within the team on tactics, but with Bakelants could have numbers & strong options.

Spain: numerous options & experience, should be attacking & counter attacking with Moreno & LL Sanchez, to set up chances for Rodriguez, Valverde or Sam Sanchez.

[Tonji]

Italy: Nibili as nominated leader, team needs to engineer a small final group for him to have a chance. But numerous options in Ulissi, Pozzato & Visconti.

Columbia: Quintana hopes for a medal, but is not a one day racer. On paper a strong team, but form for some is questionable at the moment. Although Rubiano, who rides for the Italian Androni team is in top shape & could surprise.

GB: Currently riding on the front of the peloton. Likely to use up riders on the circuits to make for a hard paced race. Possibly with the intention of leaving Froome with Stannard & another to launch a final attack on the penultimate lap.

[Tonji]

Netherlands: I'd expect Mollema to be in the mix on the final circuit.

France: have no designated leader, & all have a free role to race & attack at will, normal French tactics! Plenty of in form riders in Vichot, Voeckler & Barguil.

Australia: Cadel Evans loves Italy, low profile build up, Reasonable in Canada recently, I'll not be surprised to see him giving it one last push as his career draws to a close. Then you've got quality in Richie Porte, & top youngsters in Rohan Dennis & Michael Matthews.

[Tonji]

USA: Not much talk in the media, but with Van Garderen, Talansky & Horner, at least one should feature late on.

Slovakia: All about Sagan.

Czech Republic: Like Stybar, one to watch. I missed a price before the start for a top 3. But later perhaps...

Switzerland: All about Cancellara, he'll be hiding in the peloton saving energy until the final circuits, but will be heavily marked. Elmiger I'm hoping can get away in an attack in the final 20km.

[Tonji]

Poland: Will be watching out for the exceptional Michal Kwiatkowski.

Germany: Degenkolb, in fine form, really a question of being able to stay with any attacks on the climbs.

Ireland: Dan Martin, but Nico Roche is in the best form of his life. Young Sam Bennett will be up for it after a fine performance in the TOB.

[Tonji]

Best of the rest:

Russia's Alexandr Kolobnev, a World's specialist, always seems to involved.

Denmark's Jakob Fuglsang.

Portugal's Rui Costa, clever rider in finding the right break. In form & on my short list.

Sweden's Thomas Lofkvist.

Norway, EBH will like his chances, certainly in form & will be liking the weather. Another short list candidate. Also Lars Petter Nordhaug has some decent form.

New Zealand's Jack Bauer is tough rider & can hang in there.

[Tonji]

Already 100 riders out...

[Tonji]

Martin out, Elmiger I think crashed, Ulissi dropped I think. Sagan quietly hidden in the front group.