Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[TommyPlus]

I'll use my first post to reinvigorate this thread.
New season is upon us, with TDU and San Luis, strong early sprinting performances from Ewan and Gaviria although with both races coming on respective home turf it might be wise not to read too much into this.
Jay McCarthy(Sax) won the uphill drag on stage 2 of the TDU, perhaps a breakout type of performance from him.

Anyhow I will be updating this thread regularly with stage profiles and betting advice and hope to meet some like minded gamblers.
Here is to a profitable 2016.

Cliff
- Let's get the monies

Excellent news, welcome aboard Tommy.

We do have a few cycling experts - "cheapwetsuit", Tonji & a few others, though they tend to congregate on the TfT thread. If I recall correctly, cheapwetsuit gave us a 150/1 winner in a cycling race last year. Adding you to the list can only be good.

Be really good to get this thread revved up too, so thank you.

How did you hear about blonde, have you been lurking a while, do you play poker, are you a fan of concrete structures or cast iron manhole covers & frames, what part of the UK do you live etc would all be of interest & oil the wheels of convo.  

A reply from the great man. Now I feel like part of a family, finally!

I'm actually from the cycling hotbed of Kazakhstan, I prefer any structure that doesn't disintegrate under the stress of a magnitude 7 earthquake and I play poker like most players in ex soviet states, short stacking 72 tables of $2nl.

I arrived here like a crossroad in my life. Normally when I'm into sports I use the Betfair forum and when I'm into poker I use 2+2. Now I hate them both equally and I'm here.

ahh, now that IS fascinating.

You hate Betfair Forum & 2+2? Well it looks like you've sussed it already, but we are very different to those 2 places, mainly, in that we try to respect each other & debate in a civilised manner.

We do have a pretty lively & varied Sports Betting Board, & are blessed with some real clever people who post here.

Do you do much sports betting, apart from cycling stuff?  

"Let's get the monies"

You want million?

My gambling life is a complex beast. I started off watching sports then I gambled on sports to make the viewing more interesting then I found myself not enjoying the sports because of the gambling so I stopped gambling on sports etc etc. 
I love the puzzle of solving a cycling race. It's the most complex and varied sport to bet on in my opinion. Akin to betting on a game of backgammon where first the players have had to conquer Everest to find the board and dice.

I love horse racing and will happily while away an afternoon(or evening in Kazakh time) with RUK and a few tenners here and there. My other passion is cricket and I'll put up a thread previewing the T20 World Cup at the weekend.
Pleasure to be aboard and I hope I can be of use.
A million seems a fair target to aim for over the season as long as we are talking about a million in Kazakh currency Tenge which is equivalent to about 2 grand sterling.

[tikay]

^^^^

Excellent.

We want million.

[Tonji]

Hello Tommy, welcome to Blonde.

I'll be in & out when time permits. Nelly is a cycling bod also.

[tikay]

Hello Tommy, welcome to Blonde.

I'll be in & out when time permits. Nelly is a cycling bod also.

Ahh yes, of course, I forgot nelly.

[cheapwetsuit]

Welcome to the cycling club, Tommy. Hopefully we can turn our collective knowledge into some hard cash this year.

[TommyPlus]

Cheers gents.

Waiting for some prices to become available for stage 3 of the TDU. This is the worst timing event for writing a preview as I'm 6 hours ahead of the UK.
If no prices come up I'll just post my thoughts whatever those are worth

[TommyPlus]

Tour Down Under Stage 3 Glenelg - Campbelltown

Corkscrew Road climb is obviously the defining moment being followed by a 5km downhill to the line.

Climb was last used in 2013 when Geraint Thomas escaped with 3 others and won the sprint with a group of 11 4 seconds behind.

If a small group is going to succeed this year then they will have to get organised fairly quickly.
Personally I feel that the big guns of Dennis, Gerrans, Porte will be happy to wait for the showdown on Wilunga Hill and this will allow guys down on GC a bit of leeway if they attack possibly followed by lieutenants of the main favs. Or otherwise nothing happens and we get a 40 man bunch sprint.

[nellberg]

Still no prices on oddschecker, it's tough to get a handle on things without them. My usual plan of action for these races is to banzai a local rider who's down in the standings, in the hope he gets in a break and clings on for his 5 minutes of fame.

[nellberg]

today's preview from an Aussie website

http://www.theroar.com.au/2016/01/20/tour-down-under-stage-3-preview/

Prices:

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-down-under/tour-down-under-stage-3/winner

[Tonji]

Nathan Haas for me, but would of hoped for a bigger price.

[TommyPlus]

I've backed Luis Leon Sanchez at 25/1 and Battaglin at 33/1

[TommyPlus]

1st Gerrans
2nd Dennis
3rd Woods

Guilty of underestimating how much this race means to the Aussie riders.
I couldn't have backed Gerrans with stolen money after his crash yesterday.

[TommyPlus]

Tour Down Under Stage 4 - Norwood to Victor Harbour

The calm before the storm?
Flat day with little lumps at the start and with about 20kms to go. Neither are steep or long enough to stop the sprinters having their fun.
No prices yet but expect Ewan to be odds on. Clearly superior on stage 1, winning by a massive 4 lengths a repeat performance will be good enough for sure. BUT...
His teammate Gerrans is leading and sure Orica's main focus will be ensuring he stays safe. Imagine the train will form inside the mythical safety of the 3km to go barrier but I feel it may be a bit rushed and such is Ewan's inexperience I feel he needs to be delivered precisely otherwise he may panic a little.
All in all I think a filthy ew bet(if such a thing is possible in a 140 runner race) on Wouter Wippert from Team Drapac could prove profitable. Second best on stage 1 despite a troubled passage, he should be best placed to take advantage of any mistakes from Ewan.

Recomendation 2pt EW Wouter Wippert at 5/1 or bigger

[TommyPlus]

First prices from PP

Ewan Evs
Nizzolo 4/1
Pelucchi 4/1
Wippert 5/1
10/1 bar

Interesting betting especially as Pelucchi has already abandoned the race. Either very careless or very crafty from Paddy. It highlights how clueless the big firms can be, especially in these lower tier races.

[TommyPlus]

Wippert 8/1 at Coral is good enough for me. Bet placed.