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Poker Hand Analysis
£1/1 Live cash - very loose villain with a 'Hollywood'
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Topic: £1/1 Live cash - very loose villain with a 'Hollywood' (Read 4172 times)
pleno1
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Re: £1/1 Live cash - very loose villain with a 'Hollywood'
«
Reply #15 on:
January 17, 2013, 07:43:33 PM »
Bigger pre
Slightly smaller otf but not important
Turn obv ok
River is a clear raise don't think it's close at all whole hand just stinks like j10-kj
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Quote from: TightEnd on December 16, 2013, 12:59:59 AM
Worst playcalling I have ever seen. Bunch of fucking jokers . Run the bloody ball. 18 rushes all game? You have to be kidding me. Fuck off lol
kinboshi
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Re: £1/1 Live cash - very loose villain with a 'Hollywood'
«
Reply #16 on:
January 17, 2013, 11:12:26 PM »
Quote from: Free_Rollin on January 17, 2013, 06:55:06 PM
It is a pretty annoying when your instincts are telling you one thing, but your hand and odds dictate another.
The only problem with going with your instincts here is that there is an assumption of what we think he thinks is a good hand. Of course he could have J2 and be thinking there's no way I'm losing here. Since you've mentioned that he appears to be pretty inexperienced, plays ATC, etc etc, I think a call is the way forward. But we're not going to be surprised if he does show 55, 88, J8, J5 or J3.
That sums up the hand for me perfectly.
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'The meme for blind faith secures its own perpetuation by the simple unconscious expedient of discouraging rational inquiry.'
Evilpengwinz
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Re: £1/1 Live cash - very loose villain with a 'Hollywood'
«
Reply #17 on:
January 18, 2013, 02:59:32 AM »
Quote from: SuuPRlim on January 17, 2013, 02:42:40 PM
The "chips of the pro" comments on the turn and river sounds like totally different to the flop speech, like way more confident, he's not trying to influence your actions now he's just sort of goading you/playing the big man which people usually do when they are super confident, same with the river.
Based on this I'd think J8 J5 55 and 88 were way less likely and the hand im most likely losing to is J3 but given J2/J4/J6/J7/J9/JT/QJ/KJ are all possible and quite a lot of unsuited combo's of those hands as well given the description of him pre-flop I think i'd make a raise for value here and just set him in. No way this player can fold a Jack.
Calling gotta be fine as well, but can't fold ever here based on my instincts about the flop.
I agree with this, although I've only played live cash 3 times so idk how relevant my opinion is.
Personally, I'd value shove. If he's loose passive then I suspect he'll probably show up with a pretty big range that he perceives to be the nuts (Any Jx, 88/55/33, definitely QQ+ and maybe even as wide as 99+ and some 8x combos) which we can get value from. Ofc we're beat some of the time but we miss out on value so much of the time by not shoving, I think just get it in.
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SuuPRlim
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Re: £1/1 Live cash - very loose villain with a 'Hollywood'
«
Reply #18 on:
January 18, 2013, 03:36:13 AM »
Quote from: kinboshi on January 17, 2013, 03:52:17 PM
There's obviously information I'm getting from him that makes me think he's very strong on the river. Maybe I haven't conveyed this correctly.
My instincts were screaming at me to fold, but I was also thinking:
1. He's bluffing here some of the time. Probably not a high percentage of the time, but a bluff is definitely possible.
2. He is thinking or acting as though he's very strong, but that doesn't mean he's actually beating my hand. He might think any Jack is good, and might think I'm on an over pair or something. However,he wasn't an idiot and I think he took me for having a decent hand or thought I'm on some elaborate bluff that us 'pros' do...
3. There was enough in the middle to dictate I should call.Probably a mistake long-term to fold here,
even though I think I'm actually behind on this occasion.
So, I called.
Oh I don't think he's EVER bluffing, as close to 0% bluffs as you can get, I just get the impression he wasn't in love with his hand OTF, but defo thinks he has the best hand on the turn/river (which could be any jack)
There's nothing wrong with going against the better plays if your instincts are saying one thing, they are one of the sharpest tools you have - it's a very tough thing to analyse though as those instincts are unique to you. Folding would have been kind of absurd for the reasons you say, if this guy wants to win this pot he's going to have to show you some cards better than AJ.
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tight4better
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Re: £1/1 Live cash - very loose villain with a 'Hollywood'
«
Reply #19 on:
January 18, 2013, 01:43:23 PM »
Quote from: kinboshi on January 17, 2013, 04:00:36 PM
Be interesting to get Nik's (tight4better) opinion on this hand /player as he was at the table when it happened - and incidentally was the other player that the villain had highlighted as a 'pro' whose play he respected.
Yeah I've played this guy a LOT and his hollywood (as with most people) is usually "well I've got there"
Small problem is he would do this speech with KJ/QJ/J10/J9 and we know he's not folding these pre either. Like people have said you beat too much of his range to fold.
I still hate life calling because it really did feel like you were beat when I was looking at him while you were tanking, but I just couldn't envision folding AJ vs him in that spot. Worse jacks did feel like a fold though.
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kinboshi
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Re: £1/1 Live cash - very loose villain with a 'Hollywood'
«
Reply #20 on:
January 18, 2013, 01:52:05 PM »
Quote from: tight4better on January 18, 2013, 01:43:23 PM
Quote from: kinboshi on January 17, 2013, 04:00:36 PM
Be interesting to get Nik's (tight4better) opinion on this hand /player as he was at the table when it happened - and incidentally was the other player that the villain had highlighted as a 'pro' whose play he respected.
Yeah I've played this guy a LOT and his hollywood (as with most people) is usually "well I've got there"
Small problem is he would do this speech with KJ/QJ/J10/J9 and we know he's not folding these pre either. Like people have said you beat too much of his range to fold.
I still hate life calling because it really did feel like you were beat when I was looking at him while you were tanking, but I just couldn't envision folding AJ vs him in that spot. Worse jacks did feel like a fold though.
It was his sigh to my bet on the turn before he called, and then his subsequent talk that really made me want to fold. Was hoping he was planning to check-raise me on the river, and I'd have just checked behind. His talk just screamed massive strength, but as we've said that didn't necessarily mean he had the nuts though, so I just couldn't make the fold.
He did have the nuts though.
«
Last Edit: January 18, 2013, 01:54:02 PM by kinboshi
»
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tight4better
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Re: £1/1 Live cash - very loose villain with a 'Hollywood'
«
Reply #21 on:
January 18, 2013, 01:55:29 PM »
Quote from: kinboshi on January 18, 2013, 01:52:05 PM
Quote from: tight4better on January 18, 2013, 01:43:23 PM
Quote from: kinboshi on January 17, 2013, 04:00:36 PM
Be interesting to get Nik's (tight4better) opinion on this hand /player as he was at the table when it happened - and incidentally was the other player that the villain had highlighted as a 'pro' whose play he respected.
Yeah I've played this guy a LOT and his hollywood (as with most people) is usually "well I've got there"
Small problem is he would do this speech with KJ/QJ/J10/J9 and we know he's not folding these pre either. Like people have said you beat too much of his range to fold.
I still hate life calling because it really did feel like you were beat when I was looking at him while you were tanking, but I just couldn't envision folding AJ vs him in that spot. Worse jacks did feel like a fold though.
It was his sigh to my bet on the turn before he called, and then his subsequent talk that really made me want to fold. Was hoping he was planning to check-raise me on the river, and I'd have just checked behind. His talk just screamed massive strength, but as we've said that didn't necessarily mean he had the nuts though, so I just couldn't make the fold.
He did have the nuts though.
Yeah I noticed, still maintain you can't fold though.
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kinboshi
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Re: £1/1 Live cash - very loose villain with a 'Hollywood'
«
Reply #22 on:
January 18, 2013, 01:57:58 PM »
Yes, my thought process afterwards was probably too results-orientated. That time if I'd followed my instinct, I'd have been right - but there are plenty of way it could have cost me and long term it's probably right to call.
An ace on the river would have been the nut result
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david3103
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Re: £1/1 Live cash - very loose villain with a 'Hollywood'
«
Reply #23 on:
January 18, 2013, 02:07:44 PM »
I've made so many Hero Calls that have been wrong...
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Honeybadger
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Re: £1/1 Live cash - very loose villain with a 'Hollywood'
«
Reply #24 on:
January 18, 2013, 03:19:42 PM »
Quote from: david3103 on January 18, 2013, 02:07:44 PM
I've made so many Hero Calls that have been wrong...
You should usually be 'wrong' when you hero call. As in, you should expect to lose the pot far more often than you win it. Otherwise it is not a hero call. If you only call on the river when you think you will win the pot at least 50% of the time then you are folding
way
too much.
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kinboshi
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Re: £1/1 Live cash - very loose villain with a 'Hollywood'
«
Reply #25 on:
January 18, 2013, 03:21:59 PM »
Quote from: Honeybadger on January 18, 2013, 03:19:42 PM
Quote from: david3103 on January 18, 2013, 02:07:44 PM
I've made so many Hero Calls that have been wrong...
You should usually be 'wrong' when you hero call. As in, you should expect to lose the pot far more often than you win it. Otherwise it is not a hero call. If you only call on the river when you think you will win the pot at least 50% of the time then you are folding
way
too much.
I wanted to hero fold in this hand though.
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Honeybadger
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Re: £1/1 Live cash - very loose villain with a 'Hollywood'
«
Reply #26 on:
January 18, 2013, 03:27:37 PM »
Quote from: kinboshi on January 18, 2013, 03:21:59 PM
Quote from: Honeybadger on January 18, 2013, 03:19:42 PM
Quote from: david3103 on January 18, 2013, 02:07:44 PM
I've made so many Hero Calls that have been wrong...
You should usually be 'wrong' when you hero call. As in, you should expect to lose the pot far more often than you win it. Otherwise it is not a hero call. If you only call on the river when you think you will win the pot at least 50% of the time then you are folding
way
too much.
I wanted to hero fold in this hand though.
The maths of the hero fold works in the opposite way. You must be 'right' a very large percentage of the time in order to make a correct hero fold. You're always getting a price
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tight4better
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Re: £1/1 Live cash - very loose villain with a 'Hollywood'
«
Reply #27 on:
January 18, 2013, 03:28:54 PM »
Quote from: Honeybadger on January 18, 2013, 03:19:42 PM
Quote from: david3103 on January 18, 2013, 02:07:44 PM
I've made so many Hero Calls that have been wrong...
You should usually be 'wrong' when you hero call. As in, you should expect to lose the pot far more often than you win it. Otherwise it is not a hero call. If you only call on the river when you think you will win the pot at least 50% of the time then you are folding
way
too much.
Actually did this vs kinboshi during this session with a pretty ridic hand, was promptly shown "goods"
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kinboshi
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Re: £1/1 Live cash - very loose villain with a 'Hollywood'
«
Reply #28 on:
January 18, 2013, 03:40:01 PM »
Quote from: tight4better on January 18, 2013, 03:28:54 PM
Quote from: Honeybadger on January 18, 2013, 03:19:42 PM
Quote from: david3103 on January 18, 2013, 02:07:44 PM
I've made so many Hero Calls that have been wrong...
You should usually be 'wrong' when you hero call. As in, you should expect to lose the pot far more often than you win it. Otherwise it is not a hero call. If you only call on the river when you think you will win the pot at least 50% of the time then you are folding
way
too much.
Actually did this vs kinboshi during this session with a pretty ridic hand, was promptly shown "goods"
Not in the other hand you weren't though
(was on the turn, rather than the river that time)
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kinboshi
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Re: £1/1 Live cash - very loose villain with a 'Hollywood'
«
Reply #29 on:
January 18, 2013, 03:41:07 PM »
Quote from: Honeybadger on January 18, 2013, 03:27:37 PM
Quote from: kinboshi on January 18, 2013, 03:21:59 PM
Quote from: Honeybadger on January 18, 2013, 03:19:42 PM
Quote from: david3103 on January 18, 2013, 02:07:44 PM
I've made so many Hero Calls that have been wrong...
You should usually be 'wrong' when you hero call. As in, you should expect to lose the pot far more often than you win it. Otherwise it is not a hero call. If you only call on the river when you think you will win the pot at least 50% of the time then you are folding
way
too much.
I wanted to hero fold in this hand though.
The maths of the hero fold works in the opposite way. You must be 'right' a very large percentage of the time in order to make a correct hero fold. You're always getting a price
Yes, that's why I called. Of course, I only had to be right that time to be right that time
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