Ian Gascoigne V German Rick - 1-3 Vic

[zerofive]

Just wrote out a pretty sizeable post but then realised there is absolutely no point as this is probably a level thread anyway. Call here ainec, but prefer donking for a bunch of reasons.

[dwayne110]

I reckon this is precisely the type of awkward spot that separates the long-term consistent winners from the rest (placing myself firmly with 'the rest')

Against an unknown player it's a difficult lay down given the pot odds/potential outs -  we've invested £120 already, so £500 more to win a total £1240 pot means we should call if we think we have 40%+ odds to win. We have 13 pure outs (9 diamonds + 4 10's) / approx 52% chance of winning if we assume our opponent doesn't have a set or a diamond(s).
 
However, assessing strong likely opponent holdings & and our chances of winning, we are:

- 33% against any set 9-9/K-K/4-4
- 43% against K-9
- 40% against K-4
- 32% against a random xd
- 28%, worst possible shape, against -10d   

This to me is such a marginal spot - it's a close fold if we believe we're up against a player who is rarely/never bluffing. Our best 'strong' opponent hand is K-9, which is less likely against our tight opponent. However, it gets more complicated if we add in a bluff % (maybe 10-15% in this spot?) for our opponent, particularly given we haven't a made hand as yet!

In conclusion, if I'm in this spot against a player I believe capable of bluffing here I make a sigh call. An opponent who never bluffs = fold. This is a good illustration of why to take a few minutes to think over our opponent's possible holdings in such a spot, as I'd imagine most people call off here quickly....

[SuuPRlim]

this isnt a marginal spot really, once you've raised the flop you have to go with it now for a variety of reasons.

The close spot is whether you lead, chk/call or chk/raise the flop.

[pokerfan]

Donk fo sho

[Honeybadger]

@Dwayne110

If you look at the stove I did earlier ITT then you'll see this is actually a call. I gave villain a super tight range and we still (just) have the equity to call it off.

[SuuPRlim]

In conclusion, if I'm in this spot against a player I believe capable of bluffing here I make a sigh call. An opponent who never bluffs = fold.

The logic here is ofc correct but it would only be relevant if WE were shoving, as every bluff he has would add more hands to his fold %, and ofc given we're actually only holding only Queen high currently, every hand he folds if we can shove first adds a decent amount of profit to the play (as we win the pot 100% of the time) given how in this situation he's shoved and we've got to call it off, it means if we do call (which we should) we're going to have to show the best hand in order to win. Most of his bluffs will have 35-45% equity against us. Where it starts to become SLIGHTLY relevant is if you think he's reckless enough to jam hands like  which, ofc we have absolutely crushed.

The reason these big draws are so valuable is because they hold pretty stagnant equity against pretty much an entire range, it's only really  type hands you dont wanna see and you're in fine shape vs everything else you dont have to worry too much about his range its all about the pot odds OTF faced with a call allin/fold decision

[dwayne110]

Thanks for the feedback, excluding the 'donk for sho', lol.... in terms of how the hand was actually played I would generally favour a lead out on the flop with a view to going all-in over a raise....it takes any of the above marginal calculations out of it, adds fold equity and removes any bluffs from our opponent compared to having to call it off ourselves.

[zerofive]

I would generally favour a lead out on the flop

I think that's what pokerfan meant by "donk fo sho." He was agreeing that it was better to lead into the aggressor, I don't think he was insulting you!

[pokerfan]

I would generally favour a lead out on the flop

I think that's what pokerfan meant by "donk fo sho." He was agreeing that it was better to lead into the aggressor, I don't think he was insulting you!

Yeah, prefer to lead.

[dwayne110]

Ha, that would also make sense, me bad.... i'm very much the novice here tho, so feel free to be brutal if it means my game improves

[SuuPRlim]

Ha, that would also make sense, me bad.... i'm very much the novice here tho, so feel free to be brutal if it means my game improves

No brutallity around here, everyone gets it wrong from time to time.

[iangascoigne]

Ok. At some serious risk of flame here is the hand from my perspective. I have only just recently started to visit this part of Blonde and have found it very useful and beneficial. I visit to try and improve my game and am very appreciative of the people who contribute. So here we go;

The first thing is that the ' hand ' does not exist in a vacuum. It was about 3 hours into a pretty miserable session and that as you will see is really important to how I played the hand.

Pre.Game.
                    I wasn't that bothered about going to the Vic and was pretty tired from work.My pre game mood was pretty flat. This affected my attitude and my mind set. Although I have met some decent people at the Vic I find a lot of the regs a little miserable and the ambiance depressing.

Early hands.
                  Not a lot to report except I got involved in a big hand against one of the big stack nits. Out of position I was betting into the nit out of position with 10,J on a Q,Q,10 board. Even when he snap called my re raise  I didn't give up and ended up losing a bit.I was really tilted which on top of my pre.match mood this was not good. I decided to move to the 1/3 table and get myself re focused. During this period I also watched Ed get coolered a couple of times,playing perfect but getting outdrawn blah blah blah. He eventually got it all in with AA on a King high board only for the guy to hit two pair on the river.

The Hand.
               I had played a few hands but not many and was getting a little 'bored' ( one of many faults to my game ). Coupled with what had been happening I decided to get a grip and start to play position and play it very aggressively. So I was on the button and I think it was 3 way and I called a small raise. The flop came down,it checked round and I bet the £40 to take it down there and then like the button had done on about 80% of the previous hands. Boom I get check raised !
                 I was very unhappy ( all to do with the previous 3 hours). However I recognise the move. Who do I know who check raises the flop like that ? Oh it's me and it's a flush draw. What do I like least when I do that ? Being put Allin. So that what I did. As my chips crossed the line with second pair I immediately realised that my stack wasn't quite big enough and that my opponent was very close to getting the odds to call. Eventually he folds and in relief I stupidly flip over 9,5ss.

Thoughts.
                   I am not very pleased with the hand and I am sure you guys who play 1,000's of hands a day will find the whole thing a little tilting. I am a recreational player,I like to play in a nice environment with interesting people. I find the game seriously fascinating and I have exactly the wrong temperament for the game. I took the check raise ' personally ' and loved going all in and putting the pressure on what I perceived to be a very calm and analytical player.
                   Yes I won the pot and learned a little more about the game and myself.


Flame away but try and be kind.Life is short.

[edgascoigne]

During this period I also watched Ed get coolered a couple of times,playing perfect but getting outdrawn

Quoted for posterity. Also love that you've missed the space required after the comma so we know it's genuinely been written by you

[cambridgealex]

You played the hand better than him, Ian. By a long shot. The bet on the flop seems pretty standard - your 9 is likely the best hand, however it's very vunerable on that board, with a few players in the pot, so £40 to protect it / take the pot down is totally fine. You also may get called by worse hands like flush draws.

When he check/raises, yes you should probably fold, but actually you've made a good read that he's got a flush draw, and although a flush draw has a lot of equity vs your hand (probably has at least one over, sometimes two, sometimes a straight draw as well like QJdd - so will have 45-60% equity vs your hand) there's a lot of money in there already so you should probably get the money in and pray to hold!

However there's some hands he can be check/raising that have you dead of course (a King, two pair, a set etc) so unless your read is really strong that he has a flush draw you should just fold the flop.

But I don't really see the problem, you've read him for a flush draw, were correct, and he happened to fold it and you took down a nice pot with a good read? I think you're being hard on yourself here.

A better hand to analyse on here was the one vs me in the Iancredible 100 where you had on T74, because that hand highlights some flawed thought processes in my opinion. I remember all the details if you're interested.

[tikay]

You played the hand better than him, Ian. By a long shot

Alex makes a strong if transparent pitch for the front seat in the car for the journey to Deauville.

Quality schmoozing.