500 zoom interesting spot

[skolsuper]

Pre, if it had gone reg open, fish flat then call > 3b, but vs fish limp, reg iso 3b >> call AINEC, can explain why when I'm not on phone, or stu will probably be able to figure out what I mean. Basically you have to act before the fish if the reg cbets the flop, which has implications both in turning your hand face up to the reg most of the time and making the fish's play correct by giving him schooling odds. In this hand he probably played perfectly after the limp.

Shoving river as a bluff is genuinely absurd and I don't know why it's even being mentioned, unless I misread the board.

[Honeybadger]

Pre, if it had gone reg open, fish flat then call > 3b, but vs fish limp, reg iso 3b >> call AINEC, can explain why when I'm not on phone, or stu will probably be able to figure out what I mean. Basically you have to act before the fish if the reg cbets the flop, which has implications both in turning your hand face up to the reg most of the time and making the fish's play correct by giving him schooling odds. In this hand he probably played perfectly after the limp.

Yeah, I get it ofc. I don't completely agree with you, however. Mainly the bit I disagree about is the 'AINEC' part. I believe this sort of preflop spot (and it is a spot which comes up all the time obv) is pretty close, and can be played either way. I agree with your reasoning and I personally prefer to 3bet KQ offsuit (I would often flat if it was suited), but it is still profitable to flat and there is never going to be that much in it. For example, if the limper was a SUPER WEAK PLAYER who makes huge postflop errors then flatting would definitely be best since you want to do everything possible to ensure he is in the pot. It doesn't matter that you are allowing him to make a 'correct' over-call after you flat if he will make massive mistakes after the flop.

Shoving river as a bluff is genuinely absurd and I don't know why it's even being mentioned, unless I misread the board.

I completely agree, and have already given my reasons for so doing.

[pleno1]

I understand James. We do have the option of taking initiative. I.E if the turn was not a King, I would donk the turn close to 100% of the time.

If we want to have a calling range here (obv we do) then I think protecting it w/ KQ/AQ seems like a good strategy, especially as they will heavily dominate the fishes range. I would actually flat JJ here close to 100% and most likely QQ, so my value range is pretty thin, so don't need to have that many 3bet bluffs to be balanced, so I'd rather 3b bluff KJo and flat KQo.

Regarding shoving the river as a bluff being absurd.

Lets just try to make some assumptions:

- he doesn't have much 2x in his range
- he won't value bet KJ
- he won't bluff vs my overcall on the turn

So the hands that we want to be concerned about would be KK/QQ/AA, we of course have blockers to KK/QQ and also have blockers to Kxcc that would perhaps barrel the turn.

On the river I think we should try to make our decision based on those 3 hands, i.e c/fing being a definitely viable option. If you want to c/call the river, then perhaps shoving the river >> calling the river because we can fold out AA. (If I had switcherood the hand, I'm pretty sure most people would find a fold)

I actually think:

c/f >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> shove> call

Although, I'm still very uncertain, and could be totally wrong in my assumptions.

I also think flop could/should be a lead as well, turn is close, but I expect to get doublled enough by the reg to make it a profitable c/call on the turn, as I previously said, If it was anything but an A/K I would have donked the turn fo sho.

From a friend on a different forum, he wrote up a detailed POV on the hand

[spoiler]

Originally posted by Desultory
My opinion:

Recreational limper utg+1 might not be completely airy. it could be a range of any suited type hands, or a tighter range like sc's, low pockets type stuff.

Assuming ExB is a standard reg, ExB will likely be isolating with his normal button range. I think KQo is a call pre 100% here to keep recreational player in and we dominated buttons range.

Donking(leading) flop is possible and I will donk completely dependant on button cbet range. If its like 75%+ then its more likely a check to get value from complete air betting on a dry board. If its <60% cbet then a donk is better so you don't lose a bet on a street when your miles ahead vs both ranges. In between those ranges is debatable and you can basically mix plays depending on how you feel at the time, whether you look loose at the table or not etc. (bet the looser you look obv)


After checking and facing the bet from button, if the recreational player is wider with his limps as mentioned above then I think raising is fine. In this scenario I think recreational players cold calls raise with TP+ and fd's and his range is about 1/3 pocket pairs that probably fold to raise and therefore you lose a bet by raising but 2/3 range gain from raising. BUT if recreational player is less wide, then majority/entiity of his range will be pocket pairs so calling is better.
Button will have air most of the time but you still dominate him when he calls raise as well.

After calling and hitting turn. I think checking makes more sense button will barrel draws expecting many folds from midpocks. Vs really really unbarrely regs who check back draws; leading turn could be better as you get another bet in vs recreational players Qx hands and flush draws again dependnt on recreational players initial range.

You can checkraise this turn as well. If you are not a raisy type of guy then calling is better as he will expect you to have KQ everytime with the occasional JcTc when you raise, but if you have aggro stats raising to get value from his Top pairs that will call turn is probably better. At this point I'm semi ignoring the recreational player who may come along with a raise as well with his flop flush draw and maybe not call another bet on turn with most of his queens facing a bet and call. It depends how bad he is. At 500NL i think some rec players are good enough to fold Q here.
The worse he is, the more I'm inclined to call again. The more barrely the button is the more you should call.

8hearts is an ok hand to barrel and try to get you off QJ and AQ possibly. But I think most players give up on their bluffs here.
Therefore you may be facing a bet from purely a value range. If he is barrely, check call, because barrely players don't think @he might not have AQ here and therefore i'm not folding much out', they just barrel because they dont think and the faster the games are the less people think.
If he isn't barrely, leading river allows you to possibly rep quite a lot of missed flop flush draws, and button has more TP's than rivered flushes. He is nearly always checking back top pairs.
I think leading river is better as played. I think check raising river is not great unless you have history with the guy and he thinks you are super aggro.

*************************
"Thoughts on his river reaction vs a bet? (I wish I had switcherood it  )

I've spoken to some very good players about this hand. I've heard."

- Will fold AA vs river bet  [I VERY MUCH DOUBT THIS UNLESS YOU ARE SUPER NITTY AND TIGHT PSOT FLOP? PLAYERS STRUGGLE FOLDING ANYTHING ESPECIALLY AA, WHEN YOU POTENTIALLY CAN HAVE MISSED FLOP FD's]
- Will call AQ vs river bet [YEP, DEFINITELY POSSIBLE]
- Will call AK ott vs c/jam [POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER THE LIMITS, BUT BOTH OF YOU WILL NEED HISTORY FOR THIS TO BE LIKELY. HE WILL HAVE TO EXPECT YOU TO BE VERY CALLY AND VERY AGGRO]
- Will call all Kx vs river bet. [DEFINITELY POSSIBLE]

[/spoiler]

[Ironside]

Ii realise we can get called by worse. I was just wondering if Pat thought he ever gets him to fold AK

he wants the call from AK about the only hand he could get value from

[buffyslayer1]

I didn't read all the replies yet just OP so apolgies if this had been covered

Did you think about leading turn with 2 flush draws out there and the fish in the pot?

I like jamming river for thin value fwiw maybe AK/AQ call due to all the FD missing

Also forgot to add I think donking flop could be most optimal 3 way OOP with fish in the pot

[SuuPRlim]

Shoving river as a bluff is genuinely absurd and I don't know why it's even being mentioned, unless I misread the board.

[SuuPRlim]

this should just go check check and you win most of the time right?

[Ironside]

this should just go check check and you win most of the time right?

in zoom i dont think we win this more than 25-33% of time only hand we beat is AK

[Honeybadger]

this should just go check check and you win most of the time right?

in zoom i dont think we win this more than 25-33% of time only hand we beat is AK

Hmmm... even if this is true, AK still composes a fairly large part of his value range for barrelling the turn.

However, I don't think it is true really. Villain has KJ, KT (and likely AQ) in his value betting range on the turn (sizing notwithstanding). Plus he also has a plethora of draws which he will barrel at least some of the time despite it being threeway on the turn.

IMO it will go ch-ch on the river a lot and KQ will win most of those times. This is based on Pleno's read that his range will be interpreted as super strong once he calls on the turn and thus villain will give up with pretty much all his missed draws.

[Ironside]

this should just go check check and you win most of the time right?

in zoom i dont think we win this more than 25-33% of time only hand we beat is AK[/i]

Hmmm... even if this is true, AK still composes a fairly large part of his value range for barrelling the turn.

However, I don't think it is true really. Villain has KJ, KT (and likely AQ) in his value betting range on the turn (sizing notwithstanding). Plus he also has a plethora of draws which he will barrel at least some of the time despite it being threeway on the turn.

IMO it will go ch-ch on the river a lot and KQ will win most of those times. This is based on Pleno's read that his range will be interpreted as super strong once he calls on the turn and thus villain will give up with pretty much all his missed draws.

zoom must have changed alot since i last played when people only ever played in remember the other guy in this pot is a decent reg i think he turns up alot with QQ KK AA and AQ/AK less often obviouls i play and much smaller stakes and havent played zoom for a long time but dont think KT KJ hands get involved and do they really barrel flop and turn when they see another winning reg come in the blinds? mind you saying that i would of folded KQoand moved to another table as soon as i had seen action before me

[Honeybadger]

If we want to have a calling range here (obv we do) then I think protecting it w/ KQ/AQ seems like a good strategy, especially as they will heavily dominate the fishes range. I would actually flat JJ here close to 100% and most likely QQ, so my value range is pretty thin, so don't need to have that many 3bet bluffs to be balanced, so I'd rather 3b bluff KJo and flat KQo.

This is very good logic Patrick IMO. There is also a very good argument for simply not having a 3betting range in this sort of spot, especially if the limper is a very weak player.

Only point to note is that if you are 3betting AA, KK and AK then you need more than just the 12 combos of KJo in your bluffing range to balance. However, you can of course choose stuff other than KQo to do this with.

[Mondeoman]

Agree with Keys that jamming river as a bluff is absurd - you'd be trying to bluff out one specific hand AA - which villain is not guaranteed to fold. 

I think how you've played it up til the river is pretty standard.
Because of the fish in the hand by the time you get to the river it should be kind of obvious to villain that you have a pretty strong hand.
The problem with donk shoving river is a semi decent player should not call you with worse - you look super strong when you shove and in my mind you don't rep any missed draws.
I think if you check he will check back loads - including ak some of the time.  So villain dependent i'm check calling or check folding, versus most regs its prob a fold.

Other option is lead the river but don't shove - if you give villain a good price he may flick it in with whatever he has or convince himself you are value betting a weaker hand.

[pleno1]

Thanks for post.

One of the questions I proposed on the other forum was a smaller river bet, also think its interesting.

I know I'm dragging the thread a little bit but how do we play qq
And ajcc Otr?

I also think flop/turn is standard, although donking turn is definitely the best option on blanks and dosing vs aggression from either opponent.

I also agree its a c/f Otr.

[skolsuper]

Yeah, I get it ofc. I don't completely agree with you, however. Mainly the bit I disagree about is the 'AINEC' part. I believe this sort of preflop spot (and it is a spot which comes up all the time obv) is pretty close, and can be played either way. I agree with your reasoning and I personally prefer to 3bet KQ offsuit (I would often flat if it was suited), but it is still profitable to flat and there is never going to be that much in it. For example, if the limper was a SUPER WEAK PLAYER who makes huge postflop errors then flatting would definitely be best since you want to do everything possible to ensure he is in the pot. It doesn't matter that you are allowing him to make a 'correct' over-call after you flat if he will make massive mistakes after the flop.

I understand James. We do have the option of taking initiative. I.E if the turn was not a King, I would donk the turn close to 100% of the time.

If we want to have a calling range here (obv we do) then I think protecting it w/ KQ/AQ seems like a good strategy, especially as they will heavily dominate the fishes range. I would actually flat JJ here close to 100% and most likely QQ, so my value range is pretty thin, so don't need to have that many 3bet bluffs to be balanced, so I'd rather 3b bluff KJo and flat KQo.

I'm not 3b bluffing KQo, I think vs a button range of 35%+ we have a v profitable and GTO 3b/5b semi-bluff (so the 3b is for the 'value' from the 5b) and we're abso loving life when we get flatted, we're just printing money in that situation. Conversely, when the 2 players are the other way around, a 3bet with the fish already having $20 in the pot looks much stronger, so the reg will just fold much more often to the 3bet and 4b or call much less often, so we would be bluffing KQo there, which I agree would be a waste of a v profitable calling hand.

That said, I also think a call here is less/not profitable vs the limp-iso configuration, because of how the fish will react and how it defines your range to the reg. Versus the fish, I personally don't think he's going to make all that many "massive mistakes after the flop", it's actually going to be pretty hard for us to get in a big pot with the fish unless we cooler him. His penchant for passive play (yay alliteration) will serve him well in this spot vs your and the button's range with the button having initiative. Versus the reg, I don't think you ought to be thinking about balancing the rest of your range with the KQo, but more about how you can balance for the KQ, because it's going to be a huge part of your perceived range imo. This is why you're trying to think up funky lines for the river, because you know your hand looks exactly like what it is when you c/c flop and turn. What else is the villain going to put you on? On the flop you look like KQ AQ QJ JJ TT 99 etc, on the turn pretty much exactly KQ QJ AQ. Meanwhile villain's range is wide and uncapped. This information disparity is why your thinking is all over the place on the river.

Personally I think the villain will be able to shove the river with his entire range profitably, since the pot has already gotten so big (we have 2/3-3/4 PSB left on the river?) he only needs folds 40-43% of the time with his bluffs, and our range is mostly AQ KQ QJ of which he's got to imagine we're folding the Qx; he knows he doesn't have that many bluffs in his range after the turn action, yet still has a ton of viable value hands. However, we don't know how often he is actually going to bluff IRL so calling could be terrible or folding could be terrible, we're essentially just playing a guessing game.

You could avoid this situation by mixing it up and stealing initiative early on, but I personally think a strategy that includes donking mid-strength hands in multi-way pots is going to be sub-optimal and v hard to play. The reg will sometimes assume you're married to the hand and thus fold everything non-nutted, so you're turning your hand into a bluff, but at the same time some villains will think this looks FOS, and it's impossible to know which way the reg leans in these spots without thousands of hands on them, and so you're back playing guessing games again.

Just 3b pre, it's gonna be super profitable even if villain plays GTO, which he probably won't, and you can mop up the fish value another time. In a way, you're doing it here, because the fish has indirectly caused this super-profitable spot, but this way you protect the fish from losing all that EV to the reg and thus improve your future equity too.

[cambridgealex]

Sick good post ^