Hand v Sam Grafton at GUKPT London

[AndrewT]

Entire thread is 'I got 4 callers from UTG, check out my laggy self, old pro still got the moves' brag post from Keith IMO.

[outragous76]

The problem you are giving yourself by calling Keith is the pot to stack ratio you are left with, with your perceived range of calling hands (ignoring the fact you have KK for now)

I think part of the problem you have given yourself is the dischord between what range you believe you are repping against what Sam believes you are repping. Add this to your perception of his range and you have got yourself in a right muddle.

I agree with Pleno - his 5b is fairly standard (as he has an airball range where he doesn't want to donate any unnecessary chips when you 6b) - it also makes your 6b feel unusually large, so again he is leveraging his stack perfectly to make your decision far more difficult than it could be.

I think when you get in these spots vs competant players - 6 balling the lot is the way to go. If he wakes up with AA chalk it up, if he doesn't then you win a nice pot and at the end of the day havent showndown. By calling you end up in a spot where all you can do is get it in or fold (as you have a psb back), and his perception of your range will be very tight (and having JTs etc here would be pretty bad)

Probably not as clear as some people - but just my 2p worth

[The Camel]

Entire thread is 'I got 4 callers from UTG, check out my laggy self, old pro still got the moves' brag post from Keith IMO.

boom

[The Camel]

Simple question.

What % of the time do you think he has AA here?

[George2Loose]

Where is the squid?

[dreenie]

Simple question.

What % of the time do you think he has AA here?

2%

[George2Loose]

He's capable is some sick work. Believe he's the villain in this hand

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=47726.0

[dreenie]

I'd say he's more likely to show up with KQ suited, something like that, for him to chk 2 streets and then fire the river, I'd say he has either KQ or JJ. Maybe AK some of the time, but this spot, I'd say he's 5 betting with weakish hands, that would fold to a jam pre.

#mysticmeg

[dreenie]

By what info you have given, and stacks, and the fact he is a G

[Pinchop73]

I don't think my assigned 5b range is too far off vs you (AQo+, AJs+, KK+), so I guess AA combos are less than 10%?, sorry don't have stove on me.

[George2Loose]

Actually think Sam might flat with aces when u 4 bet more often than he five bets. Could be way off the mark tho

[The Camel]

He's capable is some sick work. Believe he's the villain in this hand

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=47726.0

That is a good thread.

[pleno1]

you would call 108o?!

[SuuPRlim]

No love for the 6b jam?

Reps enough AK for sammy to sigh call it off with JJ/QQ/AK and I don't think we really induce sammy to do much postflop by flatting when we obv just have a big hand. You may well be peeling the 4b with a ton of stuff Keith, but i'm pretty sure that sammy will just be giving you QQ+

this is what i think. maybe it's still 2011 and you've all moved on since

[The Squid]

Don't wanna say what I had but I will happily comment on the pertinent questions:

a) Keith's absolutely right that he'd been opening a lot from every position and everyone peeled in a pretty nonchalant way. this would definitely serve to heighten the likelihood of a squeeze.
b) I thought there were only 3 callers but if Keith flats there's definitely the possibility of going 3 or way to the flop so it's a mandatory 4 bet for him as far as I can see.
c) I defo expect him to be 4-bet bluffing a lot in this spot. A sort of I know, that you know, that I know your playing relatively loose. So that increases the chances of me playing back at him
d) There's been some discussion of your 4-bet bluff range and how to proceed with it when I 5-bet. You can defo make a case for flicking it in against the 5-bet getting such a good price, but this means that your 4-betting range really shouldn't involve the bottom of your opening range, so that your not faced with getting 6 to 1 with some piece of cheese. Big difference between four-betting 54s A8o, T8o etc and JTs for instance also factoring in blockers.
e) We need to consider how a good player is gonna be affected by the re-entry element. largely I think it's gonna mean a broader range of value hands he or she is willing to go with. Say no re-entry they may not be willing to get in AK or QQ for such a large amount of chips, but re-entry means it's probably less of a mistake for them.
f) In constructing a players bluffing frequency and bluffing range we have to think about what hands they dont wanna just flick in and try and hit a big flop with multi-way. What I mean is, does a good player need to 3-bet T9s here? Is it not just better to take a flop when some of the players are less than stellar. So while their value range is very narrow, so infact is the number of hands their gonna feel compelled to 3 bet. Bluffs will probably be hands that have some reversed implied odds multi-way and largely consist of blockers. Also I think that my bluffing frequency is gonna be a lot less given how good stack was and how soft the table was. I mean Keith was literally the only person I knew at all and the only one with an online background.
g) Keith is definitely beat pre a not insignificant proportion of the time here, but I think that flatting kills his action from QQ and AK more than it serves to pot control vs AA. Don't think there's any need for balance here, because a tourney this soft is only coming round a few times a year and you should just play exploitative poker.
h) Keith tanked a decent while on the river and I think that he rightly concluded that I would know that QQ isn't good here almost ever and can't really be called by worse. Particularly when the Jack comes off.

In conclusion can see why your pulled in two different directions. The fact that I have a decently low bluffing frequency in this spot acts in contradistinction to your relatively laggy image and the dead money in the pot. Overall though think there's no reason to flat the 5-bet. If the 6-bet get's through you have nicely padded your stack and if your beat then you can always re-enter.