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Poker Hand Analysis
6 way to the flop, two overs and NFD OOP
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Topic: 6 way to the flop, two overs and NFD OOP (Read 5835 times)
cambridgealex
Hero Member
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Posts: 14799
#lovethegame
Re: 6 way to the flop, two overs and NFD OOP
«
Reply #15 on:
March 26, 2013, 03:06:52 PM »
think I'd donk the flop. Would do with all sets and two pairs and combo draws too and we have a really good hand here. Puts OR in a tough spot and will have to fold all hands <overpairs.
get it in now, fk it.
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david3103
Hero Member
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Posts: 6089
Re: 6 way to the flop, two overs and NFD OOP
«
Reply #16 on:
March 26, 2013, 03:29:04 PM »
Quote from: cambridgealex on March 26, 2013, 03:06:52 PM
think I'd donk the flop. Would do with all sets and two pairs and combo draws too and we have a really good hand here. Puts OR in a tough spot and will have to fold all hands <overpairs.
get it in now, fk it.
Easy for you to say, you'll get there. Me? Not so much.
I know calling is wrong, and getting it in is better in terms of realising the value, but we have 21k at 100/200 on what I believe is a fairly long clock, so how bad would it be to fold?
On a scale of 1-10?
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Doobs
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Posts: 16733
Re: 6 way to the flop, two overs and NFD OOP
«
Reply #17 on:
March 26, 2013, 03:55:39 PM »
Quote from: david3103 on March 26, 2013, 03:29:04 PM
Quote from: cambridgealex on March 26, 2013, 03:06:52 PM
think I'd donk the flop. Would do with all sets and two pairs and combo draws too and we have a really good hand here. Puts OR in a tough spot and will have to fold all hands <overpairs.
get it in now, fk it.
Easy for you to say, you'll get there. Me? Not so much.
I know calling is wrong, and getting it in is better in terms of realising the value, but we have 21k at 100/200 on what I believe is a fairly long clock, so how bad would it be to fold?
On a scale of 1-10?
Calling the 1200 can't be wrong. Getting 5/1 on a shorter than 5/1 chance must be fine.
I don't think it is nearly so clear that realising equity by check raising is always best, especially if we do so at a bad price. I think people are underestimating the possibility of facing a set on a 6 way flop. I'd prefer squeezing pre to check raising this flop.
When it comes back with the raise to 7k and a call, then the maths changes and we may as well get it in even if we are likely to be facing at least one set most of the time. We are likely getting it in bad, but getting the right price to do so.
It is likely we (TommyD) have a decent edge in this competition, but we only have that edge by making the right decisions and I don't think folding is the right decision.
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TommyD
Sr. Member
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Posts: 629
Re: 6 way to the flop, two overs and NFD OOP
«
Reply #18 on:
March 26, 2013, 04:15:03 PM »
Thank you all for the replies, I really appreciate them.
Result
I did jam. I think I have a small amount of FE against V1 and good equity in the hand. I think I have zero FE against V2 but great equity and will be ahead sometimes.
V1 took ten minutes of anguish over his decision, more tortured it was multiway and he couldn't directly talk to me about the hand. After ten minutes he asked one of his friends at the table to call the clock on him, they obliged and 30 seconds into the clock he folded. (In a comedy fashion he later claimed to have Queens after the competent player, a friend, already claimed that hand and is never lying here. No idea what V1 had, maybe claimed Queens to make it sound like more of a fold when it was a 33 or something, maybe saving face with lower spades, Kings or such).
V2 snapped with
and we held.
Despite the result I still came away thinking I played the hand pretty crappy. However after a friend of mine with a much better game said they thought I played the well I got thinking 'What else was I supposed to do?'
If it's ok I'd like some thoughts on the following:
My problems with 3betting pre: The table was very peel happy. More of a problem was V2 had put a chip in the pot. While most at the table weren't that perceptive, even the passing valet would know that he was 100% calling, giving people much better odds in their minds to peel as well. Also if we get 4bet by OR it's a pretty trivial fold.
My problems leading the flop: I freely admit I don't donk lead enough, it's something I need to identify if and when to do so. Maybe this is a clear lead. I would have no problem leading/3betting to get it in if I thought that was going to be the result. I just thought I would get at least 2 callers, maybe more, to a lead. Then where do I go on a brick turn? Am I getting myself ready to empty the clip?
My problems c/ring the flop first time round: The competent player is either b/fing TT-QQ or betting sets/2p hands. Of all the ranges on the table, he's the worst one for me to get it in with and I'm not sure raise/folding to him is the correct play. Plus I have great odds to hit or get away on the turn, plus a full field to get value out of if I hit when plenty of worse draws can be in there as well as plenty of stubborn pairs. I never saw V1 C/ring at the time, ingame was sure he would peel.
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david3103
Hero Member
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Posts: 6089
Re: 6 way to the flop, two overs and NFD OOP
«
Reply #19 on:
March 26, 2013, 04:18:05 PM »
Quote from: Doobs on March 26, 2013, 03:55:39 PM
Quote from: david3103 on March 26, 2013, 03:29:04 PM
Quote from: cambridgealex on March 26, 2013, 03:06:52 PM
think I'd donk the flop. Would do with all sets and two pairs and combo draws too and we have a really good hand here. Puts OR in a tough spot and will have to fold all hands <overpairs.
get it in now, fk it.
Easy for you to say, you'll get there. Me? Not so much.
I know calling is wrong, and getting it in is better in terms of realising the value, but we have 21k at 100/200 on what I believe is a fairly long clock, so how bad would it be to fold?
On a scale of 1-10?
Calling the 1200 can't be wrong. Getting 5/1 on a shorter than 5/1 chance must be fine.
I don't think it is nearly so clear that realising equity by check raising is always best, especially if we do so at a bad price. I think people are underestimating the possibility of facing a set on a 6 way flop. I'd prefer squeezing pre to check raising this flop.
When it comes back with the raise to 7k and a call, then the maths changes and we may as well get it in even if we are likely to be facing at least one set most of the time. We are likely getting it in bad, but getting the right price to do so.
It is likely we (TommyD) have a decent edge in this competition, but we only have that edge by making the right decisions and I don't think folding is the right decision.
Calling the 7k is wrong.
Calling the 1200 multiway is pretty easy I looked at numbers earlier and we're around 30% to win outright if we give one villain a range that is just sets and the other a combo of sets, draws and two pair type hands. If they both have sets then that changes a bit, but whatever they have it seems pretty certain we only win the hand by hitting a safe spade.
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The Squid
Sr. Member
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Posts: 346
Re: 6 way to the flop, two overs and NFD OOP
«
Reply #20 on:
March 26, 2013, 04:49:21 PM »
Wouldn't squeeze pre. Your hand is too good.
Standard would be to donk but seems you played it well.
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PathFinder
Sr. Member
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Posts: 411
Re: 6 way to the flop, two overs and NFD OOP
«
Reply #21 on:
March 26, 2013, 05:06:00 PM »
Quote from: TommyD on March 26, 2013, 04:15:03 PM
My problems with 3betting pre: The table was very peel happy. More of a problem was V2 had put a chip in the pot. While most at the table weren't that perceptive, even the passing valet would know that he was 100% calling, giving people much better odds in their minds to peel as well. Also if we get 4bet by OR it's a pretty trivial fold.
Ok. IMO the best way to exploit a Villian who is a station pre flop is to 3bet our value hands and I believe AQss falls into this category. If you had AK here would you 3 bet? If Villian 4bets a capped range only (KK/AA/AK) then sure we can pass. But if he flats our 3 bet with all aces, all queens we can get some clean value from him and win a big pot and we can put pressure on all his pairs that don't make sets. But what do I know I haven't won as much as you
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TommyD
Sr. Member
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Posts: 629
Re: 6 way to the flop, two overs and NFD OOP
«
Reply #22 on:
March 26, 2013, 05:18:55 PM »
Quote from: PathFinder on March 26, 2013, 05:06:00 PM
Quote from: TommyD on March 26, 2013, 04:15:03 PM
My problems with 3betting pre: The table was very peel happy. More of a problem was V2 had put a chip in the pot. While most at the table weren't that perceptive, even the passing valet would know that he was 100% calling, giving people much better odds in their minds to peel as well. Also if we get 4bet by OR it's a pretty trivial fold.
Ok. IMO the best way to exploit a Villian who is a station pre flop is to 3bet our value hands and I believe AQss falls into this category. If you had AK here would you 3 bet? If Villian 4bets a capped range only (KK/AA/AK) then sure we can pass. But if he flats our 3 bet with all aces, all queens we can get some clean value from him and win a big pot and we can put pressure on all his pairs that don't make sets. But what do I know I haven't won as much as you
I can see the point if this was going to go HU with V2 most of the time but it's not one station here, I'm OOP to the tube map pre.
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titaniumbean
Hero Member
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Posts: 10018
Equity means nothing.
Re: 6 way to the flop, two overs and NFD OOP
«
Reply #23 on:
March 26, 2013, 05:58:01 PM »
peel AQs always live multiway in this comp
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buffyslayer1
Full Member
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Posts: 195
Re: 6 way to the flop, two overs and NFD OOP
«
Reply #24 on:
March 27, 2013, 10:45:08 PM »
Quote from: TL900 on March 25, 2013, 11:24:43 PM
Thoughts on leading flop?
would be my standard I think
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mulhuzz
Hero Member
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Posts: 3016
Re: 6 way to the flop, two overs and NFD OOP
«
Reply #25 on:
March 28, 2013, 02:35:26 PM »
Quote from: buffyslayer1 on March 27, 2013, 10:45:08 PM
Quote from: TL900 on March 25, 2013, 11:24:43 PM
Thoughts on leading flop?
would be my standard I think
planning to bet-3b/get it in?
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SuuPRlim
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Posts: 10437
Re: 6 way to the flop, two overs and NFD OOP
«
Reply #26 on:
March 29, 2013, 12:19:35 PM »
Donking really the stnd? Seems a bit bowl multi-way.
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TL900
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Posts: 2418
Re: 6 way to the flop, two overs and NFD OOP
«
Reply #27 on:
March 29, 2013, 12:34:42 PM »
Its not my standard, but it seems a better way to play this hand when it goes so many ways to the flop
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@MtSpewmore
Quote from: jgcblack
I wouldn't normally try so hard, but didn't have another opportunity I could wait for. I wasn't ready to surrender what I WANTED SO MUCH, that easily, I couldn't guarantee a call with me staying stoic and relying on a flinch "top pair" calling reflex.
PathFinder
Sr. Member
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Posts: 411
Re: 6 way to the flop, two overs and NFD OOP
«
Reply #28 on:
March 29, 2013, 12:46:59 PM »
My school of thought would be that the more players there is worse the donk lead is with just a draw. With a set or 2 pair it's a little better I feel.
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cambridgealex
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 14799
#lovethegame
Re: 6 way to the flop, two overs and NFD OOP
«
Reply #29 on:
March 29, 2013, 12:48:17 PM »
Quote from: SuuPRlim on March 29, 2013, 12:19:35 PM
Donking really the stnd? Seems a bit bowl multi-way.
Quote from: TL900 on March 29, 2013, 12:34:42 PM
Its not my standard, but it seems a better way to play this hand when it goes so many ways to the flop
Does not compute...
Dave is saying he doesn't like it BECAUSE it is so multiway, Tom is saying that's why he likes it.
I'm with Tom at the moment, but Dave is always right so....
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