Re: "I know I can't call" - He can't have
as we have
obviously. Does he really raise worse hand for value here? Think
and worse is more likely to just call down IP tbh if he thinks his hand is good?
If he's got a bluff here I'd expect it to be two over cards on the flop which have floated and decided to bluff raise a scary turn card as there's no chance of their hand being good.
Therefore, we're looking at a very polarised range here - If we raise, I think he'll either fold bluffs or call with
, so I think there is maybe an argument for calling then c/c river despite $63 in the pot and only leaving around $20 behind, the reason for this being if we shove we get called by
, and bluffs fold so does shoving really achieve anything if he's probably not raising worse flushes?
You will get some fish who just think "OMG I made a flush, raise raise raise", but even if he does raise a worse flush he probably thinks he's doing it for value and would probably still value bet the river if we just call turn and check river to him?
On some rivers where
is no longer only behind to
and
, but there's either FHs possible or 1 card straight flushes, I guess he could make a really nitty check behind too, which might save us $20 on the occasions where we're behind, whereas shoving means putting in another $20 drawing dead. Even if he checks behind with junk otr, we've not lost any value as he folds to turn shove anyway.
For those reasons, call turn and c/c river > shoving turn IMO.
-------------
Having said all that, I don't play on 'Stars much but I think it's generally best to just fold turn.
As I said above, his range is polarised IMO. If we believe he's got
so often that calling him down is setting fire to money, then obviously there's no point calling down with
.
For most opponents, it's not going to be a bluff often enough to make calling with
here worthwhile, so just sigh fold.
If we don't fold here though, don't shove, just call turn and c/c river.
Author