Rate my bluff

[pleno1]

Hey guys what do you think of this line?

I open atcc utg to 500 and get called by villain 1 (most enormous whale who is flatting ridiculous wide) villain 2 (skandi) and then 3 others.

Flop is As

I cbetb 1300 just the competent skandi calls

Turn is the and I bet 2800 with the intention of over betting river to get his capped range to fold out chops

River is a queen and I decide to now check (probably except jack one of only cards I check)

H bets 5600 and I put him all in for 16200 more. I cover.

My thoughts are he is totally capped at aq and I can legit play aa/kk/jt/5x/ak like this as he never really has better than aq as he squeezes the whale close to 100%

We don't have much history, I 3bet and he folded and he has been here around 1.5x orbits
What so you think?

[Nit Tendencies]

8/10.

[PutYouOnAK/AQ]

Yeah i like this line, would be annoyed if it didnt get through!

[mulhuzz]

7/10.

Would be higher with some history, unless competent villain is imfromsweden in which case 9/10 because of assumed history etc.

Like the line a lot but depends quite a bit on him knowing that you know he's competent, etc. if he thinks you could be bad but not super bad he just goes 'call'.

[pleno1]

If he thinks I'm bad then he likely would decrease his calling frequency otr

[bobAlike]

Like but I feel you probs bluffed with best hand.

[mulhuzz]

If he thinks I'm bad then he likely would decrease his calling frequency otr

Prolly means he doesn't have a bet/fold range. (At that size)

[pleno1]

That's another thing if he's trying to bluff me off a chop a non zero percent of the time. And times he has a fd we induce 5600

[pleno1]

If he thinks I'm bad then he likely would decrease his calling frequency otr

Prolly means he doesn't have a bet/fold range.

Why? That makes no sense? The worse he thinks someone is the less he is going to b/call.

[mulhuzz]

If he thinks I'm bad then he likely would decrease his calling frequency otr

Prolly means he doesn't have a bet/fold range.

Why? That makes no sense? The worse he thinks someone is the less he is going to b/call.

Because he doesn't also bluff often?

[cambridgealex]

i was at the table and thought it was a great bluff in theory, but the thing is, in these situations (ok its not QUITE the same here because he was at the top of his range) if he calls you with the exact hand or type of hand you are trying to make him fold, then it's a bad bluff - because you've incorrectly assessed what level he's thinking on, and incorrectly assessed what he is going to do with AQ here.

I think maybe we need more reads on this guy first and let him show us that he is on the level we think he is on, rather than just stereotype him based on his reggy open sizes and the fact that he folded to a 3bet in 1.5 orbits.

this bluff is similar to my bluff vs tom ambler that i wrote about in my diary - sounds fine in theory, but since he called quickly with the hand im trying to make him fold - ive incorrectly judged what level he's on - therefore made a bad bluff.

[Whollyflush]

When you break it down i think his betting on the river range is 22/AQ and maybe some missed spades. I think its v optimistic to think he bets hands like AT/AJ to bluff you off a chop in an mtt where your range looks really strong. I also since hes scandi think he 3 bets AQ with the fish in the pot some  % of the time. I'd like your line/thinking more if it was a HU pot and the Q didnt hit the river :O

As played i suspect he will never in a month of sundays fold AQ.

calling>raising for me in this specific spot, real close between calling and folding and would probably need more of a read.

[cambridgealex]

sorry realised i kinda spoiled the thread with my post there...wasnt thinking

[PutYouOnAK/AQ]

I agree with what your saying Alex, however your basing this on live reads rather than math.  Fair play to you that you have great live reads, easy to tell from your hands posted previously in ur diary.  Without them reads this is a great bluff in theory tho right?

[LonOhRay]

I agree with what your saying Alex, however your basing this on live reads rather than math.  Fair play to you that you have great live reads, easy to tell from your hands posted previously in ur diary.  Without them reads this is a great bluff in theory tho right?

In theory yes because he "can't call with the top of his range" but it's all player dependant. Using a John Black line "if i thought you were any good I'd jam river". - Does hold a lot of weight.

It doesn't matter if you can see through his cards and see he has K5, if he's not prepared to fold the hand the bluff is terrible. No matter how 'terrible' or how much of a losing play his call is in this instance.


Agree with Alex completely, you can't expect other players to do what you do or what the correct play is, so you have to adapt your play and 'come down to their level' or whatever you want to call it.