Monte Carlo hand

[The Camel]

Blinds are 100-200, everyone has roughly starting stack (30k) except for villain, an older guy, who has been very active and won lots of small pots and is up to about 40k.

Villain opens to 450.

4 callers to me in the bb with J3dd.

I call.

Flop A Q 3 with 2 diamonds.

I check, villain bets 800 everyone folds back to me.

I call.

Turn 8 of diamonds

I check, villain bets 1400

I call.

River is another 3

I bet 3200.

Villain raises to 9500.

Me?

[cambridgealex]

Wp up to now (pre is meh, I flick it in, most here will say fold though), like the river lead.

Fold now, I think you're beat way too often to make it a call.

edit: not sure actually, there's almost no Kxdd combos as the AQ and J are all blocked, so we pretty much have the nut flush, a 3 blocker, lose only to AA and QQ...hmmmm

[TommyD]

I think it's a fold.  If he seems competent then I can't see him leading this board into five people on that flop without a decent chunk of equity.  I think all value hands he could have which we beat check behind or call in the case of the river practically always.  KTdd, AA and QQ don't and you probably never have AA, QQ or 88 here so he can value raise KTdd pretty much always with confidence that quads is hard to make.  Pretty much those or complete balderdash in his hand IMO, just feels pretty strong and an odd spot to trip barrel garbage pre antes.  Has he shown down many hands at all or do you think he'd over value AQ and lower flushes etc here?  Snap raise, tank raise, insane Hollywood triple sigh raise on the end?

Probably a fold.  I say all that, in game I probably just see five blues and flick it in.

[IanSimpson]

What an awful spot!

Pre flop I probably find a fold, your play is fine post flop. It does look like you made your flush, but he is still happy to raise you?

Surely 2 pairs like AQ or AK all flat call or fold, if he's a competent player he will know that only a stronger hand than 2 pair can call his re raise. Is he sophisticated enough to a 2 pair hand into a bluff? Very very few players are in my experience.

Its very hard to not put him on a full house here, but there is the possibility he semi bluffed a worse flush on the flop and made it on the turn.

You've got about 3:1 on the call if I've done my maths right. Lacking any other information I think I make a fold here.

Actually scratch that, in the heat of the moment I probably make a crying call. But poker is much easier typing on a keyboard!

Do we have any other information on him? Has he been caught bluffing? Has he played manically at all? Has he flat called on the river with a fairly strong hand when there are danger cards out there? Has he raised a suited connector pre flop? Has he semi bluffed?

[pleno1]

Million you fold pre Ian Simpson!

As played lead turn. Villains gonna check back a lot but st least peel once and maybe even twice, if we get raised at any point we can fold.

[Pinchop73]

I play it exactly the same, but I prefer a c/c on the river this early. Bet sizings (from this particular type of player) scream better flush to me.

[muckthenuts]

Yeah i think leading turn is pretty cool. Villain deffo has a strong range so we can take initiative betting pretty big and be happy he'll be reluctant to fold, leaving open for a bigger river bet too. He might pot control the turn sometimes too when checked to when this draw gets there.

[LonOhRay]

Pot is 1800 on very wet flop - expect larger than 800 with AA/QQ.

Prefer leading turn to save him checking back Aces and Queens/broadway hands and any diamonds that you lose value from.

Would also lead river if leading turn.

As played folding river

[Pinchop73]

Flop bet is 800 into the pot of 2700, turn bet is 1400 into a pot of 4300. Right?

[LonOhRay]

Flop bet is 800 into the pot of 2700, turn bet is 1400 into a pot of 4300. Right?

You're right, I read as 4 ways to flop.


800 into 2700 is tiny at these stack depths - I don't interpret it as a made hand.

If he's been real active then he can conceivably have every Kxdd - but also means worse flushes too, decide how much he over values them regarding river raise

[kano]

Fold pre, call river.

[Yian]

Fold pre, call river.

[Royal Flush]

Fold as played.

Prob donk flop

[The Camel]

I was actually the villain in this hand.

J3dd was held by this fella  http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/player.php?a=r&n=113444

He folded after much tankage.

I had two black nines and showed him the bluff.

[gouty]

Leading that river put him in a pretty rough spot then?