Stuart Rutter WSOP, mixed game package (possible replacment MTT, pls read)

[cambridgealex]

Would be interested in expansion of 2) when you have time Stu. That is of course if you are happy sharing some of your secrets!

Unlucky and again, great TR.

[easypickings]

Would be interested in expansion of 2) when you have time Stu. That is of course if you are happy sharing some of your secrets!

Unlucky and again, great TR.

Yes definitely will, coming ASAP.

Going over for the start of the $3k pot limit omaha hi-lo, this is a really exciting one, should be a great tournie.

[easypickings]

Out of the $3000 pot limit Omaha hi-lo towards the end of the fifth level. A gutting one, as I was really excited about this tournament, and thought it would be a great value field. It indeed proved to be, but it couldn't have been any more of a nothing day before this exit hand:

Chufty limps UTg at 150/300, I'm playing 6800 from 9k starting stack, aggressive young Russian pots to 1350 from utg+2, Kyle Bowker calls, I have Aj92 with nut spades. I think for a while about potting, and effectively being all in, but there will still be some play from a 5,500 stack if I call and whiff the flop, so I decide to call. We go three way with 4525 in the pot, and I have 5450 back. The flop is 965 rainbow, which is strong for my Aj92. I pot, which is effectively an all-in, and the Russian guys iso shoves all in for more. He has AA65 for bottom two pair, so we have 55.5% equity, but brick as it runs out 96552. Almost definitely same result if I do move all-in pre.

Shame to lose 70% of a starting stack in a standard spot, and I wish I could say there were interesting decisions that had arisen before that, but unfortunately there were not.

Next up is $2500 limit six-handed tomorrow, and after that the $2500 10-game event, which should be a fantastic event.

[easypickings]

Would be interested in expansion of 2) when you have time Stu. That is of course if you are happy sharing some of your secrets!

Unlucky and again, great TR.

So yes, 2) is all about the draw 1 vs draw 2 spot, especially when the player drawing two is in position, giving the player drawing one the chance to create his own value range, bluffing range, and bluff catching range. There are fairly big things to realise, and how the spots play out will depend on the extent to which a player realises them, and his perception of how much his opponent does. So, the easy part for me was being 100% sure that David Baker would know all the numbers and complications of the different draws. What was more interesting was my guess on how he would perceive my understanding.

The biggest thing to realise is that the player drawing 2 is in worse shape that it may seem on the face of it. Further, this disadvantage is not diminished too much at all if the player drawing one has a poor draw, even as poor a, for example, 10983. Further, it is hardly diminished at all if the player drawing 2 has a quality draw (the best being 732), as this counts for a whole lot less than it does in triple draw, where drawing smooth is incredibly important. Typically, even matched draw 1 vs draw 2 spots (e.g. 9632 vs 842) match up at 72% to 28%.

In terms of the kind of hand the player drawing 2 will make, the median is a pair of 2 s, and so there is better than a 50% shot that the player will finish with a pair, and therefore a hand with which it is almost impossible to call. If the player drawing 1 can be assumed to value bet any hand up to a jack, then the chance of the player drawing two having a hand which is any more than just a bluff catcher (i.e. a jack or better) is only about 22%. These things combine to mean that the player drawing 1 should always bluff if he needs to, as half the time his drawing two opponent has a hand with which he cannot even consider calling, and for over half of the remaining spots, he will have a hand that can only beat a bluff.

So, I assumed David Baker would have a fairly wide bluffing range as he would be familiar with these kind of numbers. The other important question centres on a chunk of hands (probably all tens through queens) that he could put either into his value betting range or his bluff catching range, which of course will significantly affect the ratio of times he is value betting to the times he is bluffing when he does make a bet. One important factor in this is how the player drawing 1 perceives his opponent's understanding of the bad shape he is in when he draws two. Many players drawing one will recognise how unlikely their pat jack is to be beaten, and be keen to check it, and take advantage of any naivety in the player drawing two. (For that reason, it is important to have just a very thin bluff range as the player drawing 2- not least because the player drawing 1 may decide to always bluff when he hits the bottom of his range, and therefore will always be bluff catching when he checks)

So, I knew that a reasonably important part of the hand was for me to judge how Baker would judge me- and where that would be on the scale from thinking that a young(ish!) player flicking it in for the 10k must know the game, to thinking I might be a no limit player giving the game a go. It's a strange part of live poker how your own self image affects the analysis so much, and can crucially shift ranges. I decided on something in between, that he might treat me as default, and be fairly keen to check and give himself a wide bluff catching range, and therefore a narrow value betting range, which played into my decision to call.

Any more questions about 2 to 7 single draw? I feel it is such an underrated game.

[Tal]

How less effective is snowing in single draw?

[easypickings]

How less effective is snowing in single draw?

Yeah, it's a big question, and my only regret from the 10k event was just maybe that I should have snowed a bit more. The short answer is that it is significantly less important than in triple draw, or at least should be in a game which is of any quality at all.

The main explanation comes from considering the range of hands that a player will have when he raises and pats. If we assume he is patting anything up to the worst jack (a very reasonable assumption), then he indeed have the jack a surprisingly large amount of the time. This is about 74%, and he will have towards the bottom of his range almost all of the time. Tens make up (from memory) for about 16%, nines 6%, eights 3% and sevens just 1%. What this means is that a player who is patting only honestly will have a value bet a very small amount of the time, even if we are favourable and assume he will value bet all tens.

So, any player who is seen to pat and make the value bet on more than one occasion should immediately arouse suspicion in a good 2-7 single draw game, and particularly so if he is betting out of position (where he does not have the comfort implied by his opponent's check, and also where he may decide to check raise the top of his pat range). There is no way he can adjust his value betting range to allow himself to include some snows and still be balanced against a perceptive opponent.

Of course, it is a big leap in any poker game to assume that all opponents are well aware of hand ranges, and I spent the whole first day in the 10k trying to work out to extent to which certain people might be a bit naïve. In a poor deuce to seven game (which this was not), it can become a lot more attractive to make a lot of snows. The best circumstances are having blockers (really any paired cards up to an 8, deuces and sevens don't take on much superior importance like they do in single draw), having position, and actually if possible, having raised from an earlier position, where you can be assumed to have a stronger pat range, and are therefore given credit for having a value bet a larger fraction of the time.

[Tal]

Great answer. Makes a lot of sense. Thanks.

[easypickings]

$2500 limit holdem six-handed.

OUT, unfortunately at the start of level eight yesterday. We started with 7,500 chips, and I quickly ran up to 13,500, and then straight back down with a AK<AQ on AQ562 and QQ<KK on tt882 (bizarrely he checked back the river). So, I had exactly 7,500 going into the 5th level, and then ran well to make it up to 14,200. From that point it started going wrong, and I lost my stack in about 4 or 5 small chunks. I don't think there is too much I would have changed, these were the most interesting spots:

1) I raise 99 UTG at 300/600, Miami John defends the big blind. Flop comes 755 rainbow, I bet he calls. Turn is 755K, completing the rainbow. I bet, he raises. This is not good news. Two things are true. Firstly, that his value range is really thin; I can only realistically see him raising the unlikely trip (or better), and any king (the possibilities are probably k10,kj and kq). On the other hand, I can only beat a bluff, and pocket nines has just turned into nothing but a bluff catcher. So, I now had the only remaining decision for the hand- whether to fold now, or to call down turn and river. It is obviously a possiblity to call here to keep a player honest and fold the river, but it just doesn't seem realistic, given the massive direct odds of a river call, and the fact that this can turn into a very exploitable strategy. I did not like it at all, as it did not feel like a good bluff spot given the thinness of his repping, but obviously odds to call in limit holdem are always attractive, even over two streets. I called turn, and again on a 755k8 river, and was showed 54 offsuit. Frustrating, as he shouldn't have too many in his range for defending the BB against an UTG open, and especially not that one!

2) Young guy raises the CO at 300/600, and I have A10 off in the BB. It is an easy three bet, but I like to flat call those aces against an agressive player in limit. They are great bluff catchers on ace high boards, where opponents may multi-barrel with little or no equity, and play easily as bluff catchers on low boards as well, where A10 high can well be good. I may also be able to turn it into a bluff, on the kind of board which should hit my supposed pre-flop defending range harder. This kind of board did come, as the board ran out 3869. He bet the flop and turn, and I decided the turn was just about a good enough spot to turn my hand into a bluff and check-raise. Obviously A10 would still be good alot of the time, and so the check raise includes some protection as well, and it felt like I had a good shot to bluff off the three hands I wanted to target most- AJ, AQ and AK. He tank called, and I fired again on a queen river. He snapped, and showed AQ. That was a shame, as it felt that I had been six outered, and probably do get the river bet through on any non-ace or queen rivers. Not fully convinced about this bluff, but I think given the fact my hand is nearly a call down anyway, that I might as well use the extra small price of a turn check raise to give myself a good chance to fold out a range of hands that beats me.

3) I raise 44 from the HJ at 150/300, CO 3bets and button 4bets. This is close whether to call, where the CO can still cap and cost me an extra bet, and where I will probably have to check-fold flop even where my hand may be good. I decided to call with just about implied odds to set mine, and some chance of being able to call a flop bet on certain boards, and hope for a check down. Cut-off called as well, and I missed the board of KQ9. Surprisngly, it then got checked round, and the turn KQQ9. It was checked to the button, the original 4-better, and he now bet. This was potentially very interesting, but also potentially not at all, if he was using a normal pot control like with specifically jacks or tens. It depended on my perception of how he was, as a good player would never play AJ or AT in this way, as they would be their equity on the flop. To be honest, it felt like it was jacks or tens, but I would have an easy river fold against a bet, and could call just one here in a big pot. I was actually wrong with my decision, but right to make the call. He had A10, but a ten hit the river, and we both checked. I actually thought about betting the river to try to get him off AT, and regret not doing so, as you get such a great price on the bluff. If his turn range was likely to be one of (TT,JJ,AT,AJ), then TT just became half as likely given the river. Even thought the chance of AT had just dropped by 25%, and it was the only hand in the range of four I would have any chance of bluffing, I think my bluffing odds of 9 to 1 probably just about justify it. It needs the parlay of him not calling obviously, which is far from certain, but it would be a tough call for him to make.

So, it was quite a fun tournament (the six handed made it so), and a shame to bust out. Today is the $2500 10-game mix (the HORSE mix, PLO, triple draw, single draw NL and badugi), which I am massively looking forward to. It is possibly the event of the series, and can have so many opponents who are not good at all at a couple of the games, or in some cases, don't even know the rules to one of them.

Going to be a fun one, going across now, excited for this one.

[cambridgealex]

Just read that post about the 2-7. Have very little understanding of the game so went over my head a little! Thanks very much for taking the time to share your thoughts though.

[easypickings]

OUT of today's $2500 ten game mix in level eight. Really gutted about this one, and about the run in general. Today was much the same, of just not getting enough luck, and of having a feeling that I would have changed only small things, if anything at all.

Starting table was tough (Bill Chen, young German guy, John Pham, very competent young players), and it continued that way for the day, which felt like it was typical of the whole field. Interesting pots in 2-7 NL, stud hi-lo and stud coming tomorrow.

[easypickings]

So, these were the two most interesting hands from the $2500 10-game yesterday. This was an exciting one, gutted today not to be in day two!

1) stud hi-lo, 150-300 (25). Six handed. The board (with me in 3 seat) is AK539x, and I have (47)5 on the right of the bring in. The ace raises, the king (surprisingly) two bets, and I cold call with a strong hand, hoping for a three way pot. We go three way, and I catch (47)53, which is nice. The ace catches a king, and the kind catches an ace, so I almost definitely have the best equity three way. AK checks, KA bets, I just call, for disguise and to encourage the AK to come along. He calls. Fifth is gin for me, I catch (47)536. Not only the almost lock low and near lock high, but not such a threatening board, given I have a straight on 5th. AK catches AK2 (good news), KA catches KAQ. He bets, and I have a big decision whether to flat call to encourage three way action and get in a later raise, or to raise, partly to protect my low, but mainly for value, hoping AK2 will call two cold with an inferior hand. I think this is my big mistake from yesterday, as I decided to raise, and lost AK2 after a tank. KAQ called all the way down, and I was good for the scoop, but I think cost myself 900 chips, on a close but wrong decision. I think the big thing is that I am probably able to get a raise in on one and only one street, and so might as well delay to get 300 more on 5th, and mainly to see if there is a more favourable street on which to get the raise in. This will particularly happen if AK2 takes the lead, and therefore the betting lead, which would create a very nice spot for a raise, and possibly to trap KAQ for 3 cold, in a spot where I am still very likely to be good for the scoop.

2) No limit holdem, 25-50. No limit holdem takes on an interesting role in any multi-game mix. The overall atmosphere is a bit more relaxed, and there are a number of good mixed game players not wanting to take on big variance in one of only two games that could disturb a more steady, profitable flow in the mix. So, I often try to get out of line a lot in no limit, but at the same time, I will be one of the players who when on the defensive, does not want to take on variance unnecessarily.

I raise AsJs from UTG+1 six handed to 125, and the big blind 3bets to 350. Whereas this is a standard peel in position in NHLE six max, I don't feel it necessarily has to be the case here. He looks like his three betting range could well be wider, although one frustration of getting decisions in early levels is that a guess from limited information may later prove to be wrong. This was ultimately the case here, as he was very snug for the rest of the day. I peeled, and the board came A75 rainbow. He bet 425 into 775, and obviously this is a standard peel once. The turn was A759 rainbow, and good news came as he checked. I think a lot of my decision here comes from how much he can have the mid range of A8 and AT, and also 88/98/76 etc, which is obviously a range against which I can now simultaneously protect and value.

If his 3bet range is super tight, however, there is almost no point betting here, as I am in a way ahead-way behind situation. However, with surely a chance that AK and AQ had just become less likely with his check, I decided to bet here. I bet 525 into 1625. He called, we checked down a A759T river, and he showed AK, to make me think I had possibly put in too much action across the streets. There is of course the big option of turning my hand into a bluff on the river, possibly with slight merge value, and piling by betting the pot. It looks very believable, as it creates a situation where the two most important hands in his range, AK and AQ, can surely only be winning if I have turned an inferior hand into a bluff. The ten on the river becomes quite significant here, as on one hand it gives me a stronger spot to bluff off AK and AQ, but of course him having AT fits best with the turn action. I think it's really close whether to pile 2500 into 2675 on the river, but it felt sensible not to risk halving my stack at the start of the tournament.

I think this decision on the river is a really tough one, albeit a rare one, created purely by the question of what attitude you want to take to NLHE as part of a ten game mix. Just maybe, if it is good to pile the river here, I was a victim of being a bit too excited for this tournament, which I think is an underrated danger to any poker tournament, as it can make people avoid high variance spots early on.

[easypickings]

There is one event left on the package, which is the $2500 triple draw, and the timing has become a bit difficult my girlfriend now leaves the next day, making that day a tricky one to start playing, and my friends get into town on July 3rd.

So, I am going instead to play the $2,500 no limit holdem on July 1st, and give people the option whether to transfer over to that (a simple swap given the same buy-in), or to refund the triple draw. Of course, either is completely fine, easy with both, so if you'd like to let me know on here or by PM, that would be great.

[Rupert]

transfer gl

[Amatay]

transfer gl

[Big_D]

transfer gl