PLO - To bluff or not to bluff...

[BangBang]

My stack - £2900  image is TAG, I’ve played very few hands, but the hands I have played I’ve played fast.  Showdown around 4 times in the last 3 hours each time tabling the effective(ish) nuts.

Vilian - £2500ish  LAG Plays every hand, after a few swings is now even for the night and we're playing props, so loves to gamble.

SB – 2
BB – 5
UTG – Straddle £10 (I’m the only one not straddling at the table)
Hero –    Open to £30

Everyone but the SB call

Flop –    

Checks round to me – I bet £70

BTN- Calls
UTG – Calls

Turn  

UTG Checks
Hero - £255
BTN – Folds
UTG – Tank calls

River is  

UTG throws out £400

What would you do....?

[doubleup]

its my experience that ppl don't believe when I try to rep a str8 flush

[Honeybadger]

its my experience that ppl don't believe when I try to rep a str8 flush

He would be trying to rep the nut flush not the straight flush.

[BangBang]

its my experience that ppl don't believe when I try to rep a str8 flush

He would be trying to rep the nut flush not the straight flush.

Yep, I'd put the straight flush out of the Villains range, as the bet seems more like a cheap showdown than a value bet.  Villain is aware that I'd usually bet fairly large on the river, the pot is around £800ish and my river bet would always be something like 6-700 so seems like he's trying to get to showdown cheaply with a mid range hand.  

.....?

[doubleup]

its my experience that ppl don't believe when I try to rep a str8 flush

He would be trying to rep the nut flush not the straight flush.

I know that

[EvilPie]

Looks like a great spot to flick in £1250

Given your rep and that lovely  in your hand I don't really see another option.

It helps that he's dwell called the turn. Shows that he's at least prepared to stop and think before sticking his money in.

[bobAlike]

Are you likely to bet this hand the way you did with the runner runner flush?

And would your oppo know that?

I think I'd call any 3 bet from you there with any flush.

I am a fish though.

[rfgqqabc]

I'm a bit of a plo noob but it seems v.hard for you to have Ah Xh as well as QJ8 or QJxx so I think he should perhaps call with worse flushes but even so it depends on your betting range on the turn? If you had J8 with nut hearts would it be correct to bet the turn anyway? If so it feels like a spot you can bluff but otherwise I'm a touch nervous as to how likely it is for you to have the nuts on all 3 postflop streets (if you rep this)

Against certain players with a certain image, which you seem to have, you can probably just smash heaps in and win the pot imo.

[kano]

Vilian - £2500ish  LAG Plays every hand, after a few swings is now even for the night and we're playing props, so loves to gamble.

I would call based on that.

[Oxford_HRV]

Vilian - £2500ish  LAG Plays every hand, after a few swings is now even for the night and we're playing props, so loves to gamble.

I would call based on that.

i would fold based on that/

[SuuPRlim]

I would defo defo defo not bet the flop, oop into 4 ppl v bad flop to cbet without a lot more equity than this.

mmmm obv tempted OTR but im not entirely convinced this iis a great spot o raise the actual NF for vallue, ppl dnt tend to go value heavy like this in cash games id expect every non NF he has just to bluff catch this river, and its v possible for him to have .

[EvilPie]

I would defo defo defo not bet the flop, oop into 4 ppl v bad flop to cbet without a lot more equity than this.

mmmm obv tempted OTR but im not entirely convinced this iis a great spot o raise the actual NF for vallue, ppl dnt tend to go value heavy like this in cash games id expect every non NF he has just to bluff catch this river, and its v possible for him to have .

So if we don't bluff at it are we just giving up?

Do we auto assume he's backed in to a flush and let him have it or think he might be bluffing and flick in a call?

[BangBang]

I would defo defo defo not bet the flop, oop into 4 ppl v bad flop to cbet without a lot more equity than this.

mmmm obv tempted OTR but im not entirely convinced this iis a great spot o raise the actual NF for vallue, ppl dnt tend to go value heavy like this in cash games id expect every non NF he has just to bluff catch this river, and its v possible for him to have .

So if we don't bluff at it are we just giving up?

Do we auto assume he's backed in to a flush and let him have it or think he might be bluffing and flick in a call?

I'd never be flatting in this position, his hand is almost always a flush.  If he had QJ I'd have heard about it on the turn (Based on the player), Single diamond draw would have usually given up on the turn because if it hit Villain wouldn't get paid.

I agree with the flicking in £1250 or fold line...

[Honeybadger]

If Lil'Dave's population read on live PLO players is correct (i.e. they will check-call the river to bluff catch with almost all their flushes) then you have a clearly profitable river call - because if he 'only' value bets the straight flush or nut flush then he is so likely to be bluff heavy when you have the in your hand.

And even if Lil'Dave's read is not 100% correct then it may still be a profitable bluff catch. Of course, your read is that he 'almost always' has a flush here though...

[SuuPRlim]

In all seriousness, do live full ring PLO players really value-bet the river here with a J high flush? Pretty much 95% of generic players would bluff catch with those hands here every time, it's PLO people are scared of the nuts everytime.

BTW, i'd never bluff the river when checked to here, and I still think the C-Bet is a big mistake.