Possible value on the betting in running for Arsenal vs Wigan

[easypickings]

Does anyone think there could be some slight value in running tonight if the bookies don't quite get it right?

The match finishing in a draw would be the worst mistake ever, as it is awful for both teams. Wigan are basically 100% down (would need an impossible goal difference miracle), and Arsenal would surely miss out on the Champions League. Indeed  a draw for Arsenal is exactly the the same as a loss, as they need Spurs on Sunday to slip up in both spots. I wouldn't trust most managers to spot this at this point, but I might trust Wenger.

So, if it's level with 20 minutes to go, and even more strongly with 10 minutes, the match must surely turn into a kamikaze affair, with both sides just going ridiculously all out for it.

Laying the draw seems wise, but even more value may be in backing Arsenal at this spot in running, as they are so likely to win in an insanely stretched game against Wigan's tired legs.

The bookies will of course know this to some extent, but I still wonder whether they will give away value by not realising the rarity of the situation that will arise if the scores are level towards the end.

Laying the draw from the start (typically 9/2) seems like value, but I would think the strongest bet of all would be to bet on Arsenal in running if Wigan go ahead at any point. There might be some naivety in the odds given the match is one step removed from the scenario of scores being level, but if Arsenal did hit that spot at any point, they would surely be so likely to go on and win.

[AndrewT]

A similar situation happened with the Reading v QPR game, where a draw sent them both down and only a win for either team would keep them alive.

It was a bit different as both teams knew that, ultimately, they were going down at some point but both teams were toilet and it finished 0-0.

[easypickings]

Yes, good point, the other spot it came up was at Forest vs Leicester for the last playoff spot, where the game definitely was incredibly stretched, and Leicester scored in injury time with one Forest defender in their half.

A weird spot, where it would suit both teams to mutually agree to take their goalkeepers off the field!

[Karabiner]

Rush goalies.

[Dubai]

Losing is arguably a better result for Arsenal than drawing. In theory at least

[redarmi]

If your assumption is right, and it seems fairly solid, then probably the best way to bet it would be taking the 11-10 with Betway (2.05 and evens available elsewhere) on the second half to be the half with the most goals.  This is a fairly generic price that the firms put up for ever game on the basis of 55% of goals coming in the second half of games (they bet with a draw) and according to my maths the correct prices assuming 55% of goals are in the second half is 2.19 second half, 3.14 first half and 4.44 the draw.  If we increase second half goals to 60% which seems fair then the correct prices become 1.90 second half, 3.88 second half and 4.62 the draw so betting 11-10 the second half to have most goals would have an +EV of about 10%.  For the bet to be break even they would have to score 57% of goals in the second half.  Even if the game isn't tight it strikes me it is likely to open up late as the trailing team will have to go for it anyway so I don't see how it can be less than the normal 55%.

[easypickings]

Losing is arguably a better result for Arsenal than drawing. In theory at least

Haha sick point, makes quite a big difference too, as they are drawing so so thin if Sunderland have nothing to play for.

Hope it is level late on just to see what happens, could be just insane. Arsenal make a horrible mistake if they don't absolutely ensure a goal is scored.

[The Camel]

Losing is arguably a better result for Arsenal than drawing. In theory at least

Two draws enough to take fourth if Spurs lose to Sunderland.

[The Camel]

Losing is arguably a better result for Arsenal than drawing. In theory at least

Haha sick point, makes quite a big difference too, as they are drawing so so thin if Sunderland have nothing to play for.

Hope it is level late on just to see what happens, could be just insane. Arsenal make a horrible mistake if they don't absolutely ensure a goal is scored.

Ah I see.

[outragous76]

Losing is arguably a better result for Arsenal than drawing. In theory at least

Haha sick point, makes quite a big difference too, as they are drawing so so thin if Sunderland have nothing to play for.

Hope it is level late on just to see what happens, could be just insane. Arsenal make a horrible mistake if they don't absolutely ensure a goal is scored.

in which case should you not be laying 0-0 ? (im so rubbish with betting i dont even know if this is right?!?!?!?)

[easypickings]

If your assumption is right, and it seems fairly solid, then probably the best way to bet it would be taking the 11-10 with Betway (2.05 and evens available elsewhere) on the second half to be the half with the most goals.  This is a fairly generic price that the firms put up for ever game on the basis of 55% of goals coming in the second half of games (they bet with a draw) and according to my maths the correct prices assuming 55% of goals are in the second half is 2.19 second half, 3.14 first half and 4.44 the draw.  If we increase second half goals to 60% which seems fair then the correct prices become 1.90 second half, 3.88 second half and 4.62 the draw so betting 11-10 the second half to have most goals would have an +EV of about 10%.  For the bet to be break even they would have to score 57% of goals in the second half.  Even if the game isn't tight it strikes me it is likely to open up late as the trailing team will have to go for it anyway so I don't see how it can be less than the normal 55%.

Ah that is genius yes. The thing is, the bookies will adjust the most obvious lines, like the starting price on a draw, and may even get the in-running prices right, but it's the lines a couple of steps removed that they might leave untouched.

[redarmi]

Another pregame angle that might be interesting is betting the first half under.  The game seems to have a premium attached to the under-over price as the price in Asia is currently 3 over 1.76 which equates to about 3.35 goals a game.  Wigan and Arsenal games this year have averaged about 2.85 goals per game.  There is a premium to be added to this because Arsenal are a fairly big favourite but it is a fair assumption that goals are higher than they would be because of the effect Stu mentions and it is also fair to assume that that those extra goals are disproportionately likely to come in the second half yet when you look at the first half goals like it is based on 45% of those goals coming in the first half which is too high according to our assumptions so betting under in the first half might also be a decent bet.  If we assume 40% of goals in the first half then I make under 1.5 goals in the first half a 8/13 shot when we can bet 8/11.

[easypickings]

Losing is arguably a better result for Arsenal than drawing. In theory at least

Haha sick point, makes quite a big difference too, as they are drawing so so thin if Sunderland have nothing to play for.

Hope it is level late on just to see what happens, could be just insane. Arsenal make a horrible mistake if they don't absolutely ensure a goal is scored.

in which case should you not be laying 0-0 ? (im so rubbish with betting i dont even know if this is right?!?!?!?)

Just has to be right.

The game could well finish 1-1 or 2-2 if one side is pressing and scores an equaliser very late, but 0-0 is almost inconceivable.

If Wenger was got the tactics 100% right and instrcuted his keeper to kick it is his own net with less than 30 seconds to go, it would be a completle lock. Obviously, he won't, but the way the game will play out must make 1-18 a great lay on 0-0?

[easypickings]

Losing is arguably a better result for Arsenal than drawing. In theory at least

Haha sick point, makes quite a big difference too, as they are drawing so so thin if Sunderland have nothing to play for.

Hope it is level late on just to see what happens, could be just insane. Arsenal make a horrible mistake if they don't absolutely ensure a goal is scored.

Ah I see.

Yes, the assumption would be the added benefit to Sunderland's performance should Arsenal lose would be more significant than the very small chance that Arsenal draw and Spurs lose on Sunday, which would make throwing away a point tonight a crucial error.

As an aside, the match is an example of why it is ridiculous that the FA let the penultimate games of the calendar kick off at different times. If Wigan grabbed a winner in a kamikaze game, Villa and Sunderland would have every right to feel very aggreived. (And Wigan would have a bizarre benefit of making the FA Cup final)

[easypickings]

Another pregame angle that might be interesting is betting the first half under.  The game seems to have a premium attached to the under-over price as the price in Asia is currently 3 over 1.76 which equates to about 3.35 goals a game.  Wigan and Arsenal games this year have averaged about 2.85 goals per game.  There is a premium to be added to this because Arsenal are a fairly big favourite but it is a fair assumption that goals are higher than they would be because of the effect Stu mentions and it is also fair to assume that that those extra goals are disproportionately likely to come in the second half yet when you look at the first half goals like it is based on 45% of those goals coming in the first half which is too high according to our assumptions so betting under in the first half might also be a decent bet.  If we assume 40% of goals in the first half then I make under 1.5 goals in the first half a 8/13 shot when we can bet 8/11.

Yes, agree big time