Wimbledon 2013

[AndrewT]

They could save a lot of time now by just holding a Djokovic V Murray final tomorrow, whilst presenting Serena with the Ladies' title during a change of ends.

[kinboshi]

OK - want some opinions.  I backed Haas at 150s and Del Potro at 80s before it started with the intention of laying the bets off when their odds shortened.

They're now at 34 and 90 respectively, and I've doubled my money. But the question is how long do I wait before I 'green out'? 

Tomorrow's matches:

Jesse Levine v Juan Martin Del Potro 13:00
Jimmy Wang v Tommy Haas 14:15

Both are big favourites, so I should let it run for tomorrow. But then in the following round...?

[TightEnd]

OK - want some opinions.  I backed Haas at 150s and Del Potro at 80s before it started with the intention of laying the bets off when their odds shortened.

They're now at 34 and 90 respectively, and I've doubled my money. But the question is how long do I wait before I 'green out'? 

Tomorrow's matches:

Jesse Levine v Juan Martin Del Potro 13:00
Jimmy Wang v Tommy Haas 14:15

Both are big favourites, so I should let it run for tomorrow. But then in the following round...?

the problem I find with backing people who cannot possibly win the bet you place, unless you trade, is that everyone knows that so the price changes are relatively inelastic compared to progress through the competition

Hence we've lost three of the top 5 seeds, and they are still 35 and 90-1.

Unless you are very confident both will win I'd take the double, as I wouldn't anticipate either shortening much even if they win

[kinboshi]

OK - want some opinions.  I backed Haas at 150s and Del Potro at 80s before it started with the intention of laying the bets off when their odds shortened.

They're now at 34 and 90 respectively, and I've doubled my money. But the question is how long do I wait before I 'green out'? 

Tomorrow's matches:

Jesse Levine v Juan Martin Del Potro 13:00
Jimmy Wang v Tommy Haas 14:15

Both are big favourites, so I should let it run for tomorrow. But then in the following round...?

the problem I find with backing people who cannot possibly win the bet you place, unless you trade, is that everyone knows that so the price changes are relatively inelastic compared to progress through the competition

Hence we've lost three of the top 5 seeds, and they are still 35 and 90-1.

Unless you are very confident both will win I'd take the double, as I wouldn't anticipate either shortening much even if they win

Yes, probably very true - especially with Haas, who I think then has Djokovic in the next round.  The thing is, there odds could shorten if other fancied players get knocked out before Haas and Del Potro play again?

[TightEnd]

OK - want some opinions.  I backed Haas at 150s and Del Potro at 80s before it started with the intention of laying the bets off when their odds shortened.

They're now at 34 and 90 respectively, and I've doubled my money. But the question is how long do I wait before I 'green out'? 

Tomorrow's matches:

Jesse Levine v Juan Martin Del Potro 13:00
Jimmy Wang v Tommy Haas 14:15

Both are big favourites, so I should let it run for tomorrow. But then in the following round...?

the problem I find with backing people who cannot possibly win the bet you place, unless you trade, is that everyone knows that so the price changes are relatively inelastic compared to progress through the competition

Hence we've lost three of the top 5 seeds, and they are still 35 and 90-1.

Unless you are very confident both will win I'd take the double, as I wouldn't anticipate either shortening much even if they win

Yes, probably very true - especially with Haas, who I think then has Djokovic in the next round.  The thing is, there odds could shorten if other fancied players get knocked out before Haas and Del Potro play again?

they could, but realistically Haas only shortens if Djok goes out

Delpo, depends which half of the draw but again unless its Murray or Djok (depending which half he is in) then they won't price anyone to a realistic chance of winning it (12-1 down)

[kinboshi]

Oh, my mistake.  It's not the next round where Haas faces Djokovic, its the one after.

[kinboshi]

Del Porto is in the same half of the draw, but would only meet Djokovic in the semis.

[kinboshi]

OK - want some opinions.  I backed Haas at 150s and Del Potro at 80s before it started with the intention of laying the bets off when their odds shortened.

They're now at 34 and 90 respectively, and I've doubled my money. But the question is how long do I wait before I 'green out'? 

Tomorrow's matches:

Jesse Levine v Juan Martin Del Potro 13:00
Jimmy Wang v Tommy Haas 14:15

Both are big favourites, so I should let it run for tomorrow. But then in the following round...?

the problem I find with backing people who cannot possibly win the bet you place, unless you trade, is that everyone knows that so the price changes are relatively inelastic compared to progress through the competition

Hence we've lost three of the top 5 seeds, and they are still 35 and 90-1.

Unless you are very confident both will win I'd take the double, as I wouldn't anticipate either shortening much even if they win

For some reason Haas has lengthened to 110 now.  Maybe he was out on the lash last night or something?  That's cut my profit somewhat, so going to have to hope he wins comfortably today and his price shortens again.

[kinboshi]

Del Potro wins in three straight sets.  He's now the third favourite, and is priced at 25/1!  Haas is back at 100, and is about to play.  He's the 8th favourite now.  Never seen a tournament where there are two favourites as massive as Djokovic and Murray.  Except for Serena in the Women's of course.

[TightEnd]

its because the e/w market is set as 1/2 odds top 2 not 1/4 odds top 4

If it were the latter than Delpo would be 12-1? I guess, but something like 3-1/4-1 the semi final place

He beat Djok at the Olympics on number 1 court I beleive for the bronze, so its really only the shape of the betting market/terms that keeps him out at 25-1

[kinboshi]

Laura Robson.  Stunning.

[TightEnd]

she's 19, big server, booming forehand, proper coach now

headed for the top ten on an 18 month view, yes?

[AndrewT]

she's 19, big server, booming forehand, proper coach now

headed for the top ten on an 18 month view, yes?

Certainly - apart from Serena and Maria, the rest of the women are much of a muchness.

[MereNovice]

she's 19, big server, booming forehand, proper coach now

headed for the top ten on an 18 month view, yes?

Certainly - apart from Serena and Maria, the rest of the women are much of a muchness.

I think Ms Azarenka might argue with you.
Mind you, she'd argue with herself if no-one else was around.

[kinboshi]

She still has lots of work to do on her game, plenty of double-faults (only 40% of her first serves in) and lots of unforced errors, so get that right and she has the natural talent to go a long way.