What do you think of my adventurous plan?

[cambridgealex]

2/5 cash in vegas. I am new to the table, open CO to $15 with , btn calls, sb makes it $65 playing $800. I cover. He is indian, probably 35ish and looks like he is pretty tight/solid and has a very good hand here. I call, btn folds.

Flop He bets $90. I really want to fold here. I've seen him not cbet JJ on Q94 before, and although this is different situation I just don't know how often this is anything other than KK/AA and I only have two outs to improve. I called anyway.

Turn He checks. Now this is where it gets interesting. I figure he now has AA/KK perhaps AK. My plan was to bet $200 and shove almost any river to get him to fold KK or AK, unless I get some ninja read that he's tarping with AA. I can't just bet turn and give up river in case he's just calling turn with Kx or Ax trying to hit a flush.

Thoughts?

[Young_gun]

Surely you should play a few hands with the guy before you start trying to get him off a big hand?

[theprawnidentity]

Kinda want to agree with young gun here, do we know that he can let some stuff go?  Not sure i have enough information to make a definitive decision.  Usually when I try to do some funk like this in a vacuum it ends badly for me!

[Honeybadger]

I think it is a very adventurous plan. Highly creative. Heroic. Worthy of John Black himself in fact.

[pleno1]

I like it

[George2Loose]

Have done this a handful of times myself online vs nitty regs, whom I have a lot of history with and know they will fold an overpair more often than not but not a good idea against someone you have very little info on.

Can I ask, why did you call preflop? Just interested to know your plan on how to make money from this.

 

[Honeybadger]

I like it

[ ] Surprised to hear that

[gouty]

Have done this a handful of times myself online vs nitty regs, whom I have a lot of history with and know they will fold an overpair more often than not but not a good idea against someone you have very little info on.

Can I ask, why did you call preflop? Just interested to know your plan on how to make money from this.

 

Chuckles on top form.

[railtard1]

Yh like it, small turn sizing tho imo as at least sometimes he will c/r when he has AA, feeling the need to do so to win stacks.

[cambridgealex]

Yh like it, small turn sizing tho imo as at least sometimes he will c/r when he has AA, feeling the need to do so to win stacks.

V Interesting point.

[cambridgealex]

Gowan honeybadger give us your thoughts.

I haven't forgotten about your pm btw

[redarmi]

I like my stories to make some sense when I am trying something like this and I am not sure this does.  What exactly are we repping?  KJdd, KTdd or JTdd and there has to be a fair chance you fold these hands to a 3bet.  Its a pretty narrow range of hands and if he does have something like AA or KK/AK with K of diamonds then your range is narrowed further.   If I am in his position with a half decent non flush hand then I have to think you have a fair amount of bluffs in your range.  Possibly too many for me to be able to fold.

[cambridgealex]

I think it's WAY more likely that villain will put us on a hand like 98dd than he will think we are turning a Q into a bluff. People find it way easier to relate to plays that they themselves make.

I remember being really confused by something a vgood player did in the ispt vs me and at no point did I consider he had this hand as part of his range because I'd never do it myself.

I don't believe villain would do a lot of turning strongish hands into bluffs, whereas he might do a lot of calling 3bets with speculative hands (who doesn't lol), so I think that's a really important point.

[cambridgealex]

I called preflop because it's 50 more and we can win 800 more plus the 100 already there. I have a very sexy hand, in position vs a strong range (so implied odds if I hit) and I thought I could hand read this player postflop decently well just will basic stereotypes and defaults that I use for live poker. So I could work out if he has AK and misses, or QQ and get him off Axx or Kxx for example.

Also I would only lose 1 bet if beat on Qxx or Txx flops maybe two if I turned equity and everyone knows Im relaxed about reverse implied odds

[rfgqqabc]

Would fold pre if you think he has it, don't think you have the implied odds. Completely understand why you call though. I think your plan is a winning plan vs the right opponent and I think it is a stake you should turn a profit at but I don't think this is where the majority of our hourly should come from imo. New to the table makes me much less inclined to peel pre and declare war here.