People keep agreeing with this, but it is still misleading.
We have 3 bet now, so we are only calling off an additional 10% of our stack. So calling to hit a flop we hit a third of the time is no longer ambitious, it can't really be that bad.
There are a ton of post flop permutations that would be really hard to quantify accurately, but I'll have a go at explaining why I think it's ambitious.
Although its only additional 10%, were going to be committing 5700 of our 24k stack (24% of it) and there will be roughly 13,000 in the middle and we have 18,300 left behind. Not only that, we are OOP to an good thinking player. As soon as he c.bets, which I suspect he will, I see no way of us not sticking it in his eye given the AMAZING price we will have to do it AND two overs. We almost have to.
If you wanted to go down the route of hitting enough of the flop to go with before committing more chips, then I would suspect we would hit this flop hard enough for you consider going with it around 35% of the time (say 1 in 3 to make my life easier). So 2/3 times were going to check fold which nets us -11,400 chips. So the 1/3 times we do continue, we need to make more than 11,400 chips to make the play profitable. Given that we have 18k behind, we basically need to play for stacks 2/3 times when we flop it to make it profitable. It means we need to him to double barrel or call our check shove on 2/3 flops, and I think that's going to be a little ambitious given what our perceived range will be when we flat this 4b OOP. I really think we struggle to get paid on A/K high flop.
If we do hit the flop and flat, our hand is just so face up its unbelievable as we are never airballing having put 11k+ of our 24k stack in the middle (creating a 24k pot with 13k behind). The only option we EVER have is to check shove IMO, and there's still a chance he might give up on the hand and just shut down after the 4b unless the board delivers. And obviously if we're going to check shove our made hands, we have to check shove all our bluffs too. I think making enough money in the long run to make flatting profitable is thin / not possible.
5b shoving pre, on the other hand, will be massively profitable IMO.
I can show the maths for this too but don't want to bore everyone with more of my drivel!!!!
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