Main event fml spot vs Jake Cody

[Tal]

But we have already got paid: we have inflated the pot where flatting was nearer optimal, so now we can call for a small % of our stack and:

- jam it in his eye if we hit A or K a third of the time
- win chips on the odd occasion we flop the universe
- get away if we whiff and lick our wounds for the next hand.

[outragous76]

But we have already got paid: we have inflated the pot where flatting was nearer optimal, so now we can call for a small % of our stack and:

- jam it in his eye if we hit A or K a third of the time
- win chips on the odd occasion we flop the universe
- get away if we whiff and lick our wounds for the next hand.

not sure much of that is true

flatting here is terrible OOP vs a good player. stack sizes just don't work - see tomsom post

[theprawnidentity]

Alright I couldn't help myself!!!!!

Had to run the 5b shoving option.  So assuming that we think he can do this pretty light and make our lives difficult (which I think we pretty much agreed he could), I have assigned the following 4b'ing range:

77+,A6s+,K9s+,QTs+,J9s+,T8s+,T5s,98s,87s,A9o+,KTo+,QJo,Q3o,JTo,T6o (20.8%)

The T6o/T5s type hands are just to represent some absolute airballs he might do this with.

I assumed his 5b calling range was AK and JJ+.  Soooo plugging the numbers into my spreadsheet I calculate we net +4850.79 chips by shoving here.  A gain of +16bb can't really be a bad job.  

Of course if you think my ranges or assumptions are way out then LMK, and I will happily plug the numbers for your range of hands (I need a 4b'ing and a 5b calling range to make it happen).

[Honeybadger]

People keep agreeing with this, but it is still misleading. 

We have 3 bet now, so we are only calling off an additional 10% of our stack.  So calling to hit a flop we hit a third of the time is no longer ambitious, it can't really be that bad.   

There are a ton of post flop permutations that would be really hard to quantify accurately, but I'll have a go at explaining why I think it's ambitious.

Although its only additional 10%, were going to be committing 5700 of our 24k stack (24% of it) and there will be roughly 13,000 in the middle and we have 18,300 left behind.  Not only that, we are OOP to an good thinking player.  As soon as he c.bets, which I suspect he will, I see no way of us not sticking it in his eye given the AMAZING price we will have to do it AND two overs.  We almost have to. 

If you wanted to go down the route of hitting enough of the flop to go with before committing more chips, then I would suspect we would hit this flop hard enough for you consider going with it around 35% of the time (say 1 in 3 to make my life easier).  So 2/3 times were going to check fold which nets us -11,400 chips.  So the 1/3 times we do continue, we need to make more than 11,400 chips to make the play profitable. Given that we have 18k behind, we basically need to play for stacks 2/3 times when we flop it to make it profitable.  It means we need to him to double barrel or call our check shove on 2/3 flops, and I think that's going to be a little ambitious given what our perceived range will be when we flat this 4b OOP.  I really think we struggle to get paid on A/K high flop.

If we do hit the flop and flat, our hand is just so face up its unbelievable as we are never airballing having put 11k+ of our 24k stack in the middle (creating a 24k pot with 13k behind).  The only option we EVER have is to check shove IMO, and there's still a chance he might give up on the hand and just shut down after the 4b unless the board delivers.  And obviously if we're going to check shove our made hands, we have to check shove all our bluffs too.  I think making enough money in the long run to make flatting profitable is thin / not possible.
5b shoving pre, on the other hand, will be massively profitable IMO. 

I can show the maths for this too but don't want to bore everyone with more of my drivel!!!!

Tomsom, your maths is completely off in this analysis. And I don't just mean a little bit wrong, I mean hugely so. Give it a check through...

[outragous76]

you missed out the T4 yo

[theprawnidentity]

Help me out badger, is toooooo early!!!!!!!!!

[Rupert]

flat pre

[Pinchop73]

Peeling the 4b is just an abs disaster. This is not a cash game. We define our range so much that when we check the non Q/K/A board Jake can just bet his 67s and the hand is over.

More so, when we do flop dece, he has such an easy fold and we have thus won the absolute minimum. The implied odds of peeling are joke bad. Jake is just always going to play perfectly against us. When we peel, we're risking over 25% of our stack with an almost 0% chance of fully realising our equity when we hit. We're not playing against a spazz here.

He also never has AA/KK, because he's never going to want to loose the lose player out of the pot with such a strong hand. It's just a spot where he can mug you 90% of the time.

EDIT: Seems tomstom has posted basically this already. Should read before I post D'oh

[Doobs]

Peeling the 4b is just an abs disaster. This is not a cash game. We define our range so much that when we check the non Q/K/A board Jake can just bet his 67s and the hand is over.

More so, when we do flop dece, he has such an easy fold and we have thus won the absolute minimum. The implied odds of peeling are joke bad. Jake is just always going to play perfectly against us. When we peel, we're risking over 25% of our stack with an almost 0% chance of fully realising our equity when we hit. We're not playing against a spazz here.

He also never has AA/KK, because he's never going to want to loose the lose player out of the pot with such a strong hand. It's just a spot where he can mug you 90% of the time.

We are priced to make the call and can donk lead whenever we hit and he can fold 100% of the time and it is still profitable for us.  It can't be an absolute disaster or joke bad. 

Some people need to do more listening and less talking here. 

[pleno1]

Peeling the 4b is just an abs disaster. This is not a cash game. We define our range so much that when we check the non Q/K/A board Jake can just bet his 67s and the hand is over.

More so, when we do flop dece, he has such an easy fold and we have thus won the absolute minimum. The implied odds of peeling are joke bad. Jake is just always going to play perfectly against us. When we peel, we're risking over 25% of our stack with an almost 0% chance of fully realising our equity when we hit. We're not playing against a spazz here.

He also never has AA/KK, because he's never going to want to loose the lose player out of the pot with such a strong hand. It's just a spot where he can mug you 90% of the time.

We are priced to make the call and can donk lead whenever we hit and he can fold 100% of the time and it is still profitable for us.  It can't be an absolute disaster or joke bad. 

Some people need to do more listening and less talking here. 

Maths should take into account the fact that his value 4b range is a and kx heavy with always 2 blockers and his 4bet bluff range should always have at least 1 blocker in this hand

[Honeybadger]

Help me out badger, is toooooo early!!!!!!!!!

I haven't got time because I am grinding. But just for example:

So 2/3 times were going to check fold which nets us -11,400 chips.  So the 1/3 times we do continue, we need to make more than 11,400 chips to make the play profitable. Given that we have 18k behind, we basically need to play for stacks 2/3 times when we flop it to make it profitable.

If we call the 4bet preflop then c/f the flop this does not net us -11,400 chips. This should be simple to see. We have only put 5700 in preflop, after all! And also, since we have already 3bet we have only put an additional 2600 in vs the 4bet.

[outragous76]

Peeling the 4b is just an abs disaster. This is not a cash game. We define our range so much that when we check the non Q/K/A board Jake can just bet his 67s and the hand is over.

More so, when we do flop dece, he has such an easy fold and we have thus won the absolute minimum. The implied odds of peeling are joke bad. Jake is just always going to play perfectly against us. When we peel, we're risking over 25% of our stack with an almost 0% chance of fully realising our equity when we hit. We're not playing against a spazz here.

He also never has AA/KK, because he's never going to want to loose the lose player out of the pot with such a strong hand. It's just a spot where he can mug you 90% of the time.

We are priced to make the call and can donk lead whenever we hit and he can fold 100% of the time and it is still profitable for us.  It can't be an absolute disaster or joke bad. 

Some people need to do more listening and less talking here. 

Im with Pinchop

Calling pretty much turns our hand face up. Lets assume we hit our A or K, what part of Jakes range are we getting value from?

Why would we lead when we hit? Gotta give Jake a chance to continue with his T4o

We are going to miss this board a tonne - so we just give up?

the stack sizes here make calling a disaster. Making money post flop in this hand is going to be pretty tough

[pleno1]

Makes bluffing range is ax and kx so when we do both hit I,guess we get at least a street if not two.

[pleno1]

I played similar hand


I open 700utg
Btn flat
Elio 2250 in bb
I go 5750

He folded ak face up

[Doobs]

Help me out badger, is toooooo early!!!!!!!!!

I haven't got time because I am grinding. But just for example:

So 2/3 times were going to check fold which nets us -11,400 chips.  So the 1/3 times we do continue, we need to make more than 11,400 chips to make the play profitable. Given that we have 18k behind, we basically need to play for stacks 2/3 times when we flop it to make it profitable.

If we call the 4bet preflop then c/f the flop this does not net us -11,400 chips. This should be simple to see. We have only put 5700 in preflop, after all! And also, since we have already 3bet we have only put an additional 2600 in vs the 4bet.

Am off to the park.  Gl with the grind.