Main event fml spot vs Jake Cody

[theprawnidentity]

If we call the 4bet preflop then c/f the flop this does not net us -11,400 chips. This should be simple to see. We have only put 5700 in preflop, after all! And also, since we have already 3bet we have only put an additional 2600 in vs the 4bet.

Running this scenario 1 billion times or w/e, committing 5700 to pot then folding 2/3 times is -11400 no?  So the 1/3 times we continue we have to make those 11400 chips back plus more to show a profit.  

[Honeybadger]

If we call the 4bet preflop then c/f the flop this does not net us -11,400 chips. This should be simple to see. We have only put 5700 in preflop, after all! And also, since we have already 3bet we have only put an additional 2600 in vs the 4bet.

Running this scenario 1 billion times or w/e, committing 5700 to pot then folding 2/3 times is -11400 no?  So the 1/3 times we continue we have to make those 11400 chips back plus more to show a profit.  

Oh I see the way you are thinking! Still not right though tbh. We only have to call an additional 2600.

[theprawnidentity]

Oh I see the way you are thinking! Still not right though tbh. We only have to call an additional 2600.

Which in a cash game would be completely fine as the pot is laying us amazing odds.  But in tournaments we only have a finite number of chips, so we would be worried about our total investment in the pot as we do not have the option to reload.

[Honeybadger]

Yeah but that wasn't what I was quibbling with, I was just saying you'd got your maths wrong.

BTW you really don't want to hear my opinion on 'tournament life' considerations lol!

[theprawnidentity]

Yeah but that wasn't what I was quibbling with, I was just saying you'd got your maths wrong.

BTW you really don't want to hear my opinion on 'tournament life' considerations lol!

Lol, we probably have the same opinion on tournament life considerations by the sounds of it.  I've got a ton of thoughts in my head and I can't put them into a clear story atm.  Probs best for both our mental states if we just agree to disagree on the merits of flatting the 4b and get on with our lives though lol.

[Honeybadger]

Yeah good idea. Although I have at no stage said that I think flatting the 4bet is the best play. I just pointed out errors in your maths, nothing else.

However, I actually do think that flatting the 4bet might well be best. So I have said it now

No more now... gotta get busy.

[George2Loose]

I played similar hand


I open 700utg
Btn flat
Elio 2250 in bb
I go 5750

He folded ak face up

U don't name drop enough.

Stacks sizes exactly the same? History the same? What did u have?

[titaniumbean]

Pleno you're insulting yourself, elio obv thinks your a fishy uncapable player so you just have it innit.

<3 plinop

[Honeybadger]

Who is Elio?

[titaniumbean]

elio fox = smocklrocklfloc   (sic)

Click to see full-size image.

[SuuPRlim]

Tomsom, the point I think you're missing is now we're here having 3bet - which I think we all agree is was not the best play -  before we've reacted there is 10775 in the pot and we've got 2600 to call so if we wanna play exactly for our equity now wee only need 19-20% equity against his range (2600/13375=0.194) which I am surrrrrre we will have.

When you say calling the 4b nets us -11400 do you mean if we call the 4bet, and stack of of 1/3 of flops (is that the actual number of flops we have equity to stack on or did you guess?) then with the equity vs that range OTF we'll net -11,400. Because JUST calling a 4bet for 2600 can never result in a -11,400 result surely? If you're saying calling a 2600 4bet and only being able to stack off 1/3 of the time and being a 4x loser on our call then the ONLY conclusion we can draw from this is that we should FOLD to his 4bet surely? You can work our on odds oracle what equity we flop vs his range what % of the time. Also the ranges have to be completely off, you're suggesting he opens and 4b's Q3o and that he'll open and 4b/fold TT there is no way that can be right surely? I'm being kinda counter productive here because I don't really have better ranges to give you, but I know that can't be right (or I least I dont think)

However that's ofc assuming we can play perfectly postflop vs him which we ofc can't, we'll fold incorrectly on some bricked boards, and we'll commit chips incorrectly on some boards as well - but most board we "hit" will be quite easy to continue on relatively simply, the times we're getting exploited for our call is when it comes J63r and AQ/AK or a bluff c-bets us off the board. I have plenty of opinions about Jake's range here but mostly from talking to him and not playing with him so I don't think it's right for me to share that. Jake is very clever with his sizing here.

Its pretty bizzare to me that in one thread people are saying they would fold QQ to a blind shove in level 1 of the main, but its a "stnd" play to 5bet 80big blinds in vs an UTG open/4bet in level 4. JAke has seen his cards remember. At least we assume so

[cambridgealex]

Its pretty bizzare to me that in one thread people are saying they would fold QQ to a blind shove in level 1 of the main, but its a "stnd" play to 5bet 80big blinds in vs an UTG open/4bet in level 4. JAke has seen his cards remember. At least we assume so

This.

I agree I botched this one with 3betting in the first place. But once I have, I have to at least call this 4bet.

[titaniumbean]

i'd rather call vs someone not as good post as Jake. when we're going to have little idea how he perceives our range for this and can easily level ourselves.

jam now you've 3bet

[hotdog]

Pretty simple flat pre but you are in a world of pain right now, IMO the way its gone you have a tough decision but i would put him under pressure and ship it in!  if he has JJ+  good luck to the fella from Rochdale!

[LonOhRay]

All been said before but it all depends on dynamic, if you been playing tight peeling best, if you been aggro or your names moorman squeezing is going to be better.

I'd expect Jake to flat AA and KK a decent amount with the fish in and your range being kind of wide too.

So as played putting it in there's too much in the middle