Sky - Tens, FT 3 left with away player

[Evilpengwinz]

£5.75 Bounty Hunter on Sky, blinds 1k/2k.

Prize money is roughly
1st £55
2nd £35
3rd £23

(Can't get exact amounts as the tournament finished and I've closed the lobby already)

I have 40k, button has ~100k. The BB has been away since the last tournament break and has blinded down to 2bb

We are dealt Tens in the SB and the button opens to 4k.

Standard 3bet shove, or pretend it's 72o, fold, and lock up 2nd place?

[Bully87]

Ship and crucify the guy HU

[TL900]

fold

[titaniumbean]

yeh like there are no antes to steal, whats been happening in the last few orbits, have you opened at all or shoved etc

I would prob just fold and lock it up then keep folding till you get dem AA innit.

[theprawnidentity]

fold

ainec

[cambridgealex]

fold

ainec

Yeh it's a fold. Folding QQ?

[TL900]

fold

ainec

Yeh it's a fold. Folding QQ?

If he isnt there I think we should be folding aces, OP does he have to lose at showdown or do his cards just get mucked when hes all in?

[Evilpengwinz]

fold

ainec

Yeh it's a fold. Folding QQ?

If he isnt there I think we should be folding aces, OP does he have to lose at showdown or do his cards just get mucked when hes all in?

He has to lose at showdown on Sky.

[Ironside]

does the the amount of bounty on heads count for anything

personally i would want too think i can fold this but in play
i would likely just keep pot small and keep calling untill
i am put too the sword for a large portion of my chips

[pleno1]

has the button been raising every hand? ever open jamming?

v v v v v much doubt im folding here.

[Royal Flush]

I'm shoving this for sure, can't understand why we would want to fold.

[ZZZZZZZROPE]

I'm shoving this for sure, can't understand why we would want to fold.

+1 button will most likely be opening close to if not 100%. happy jamming

[rfgqqabc]

I'm shoving this for sure, can't understand why we would want to fold.

We effectively get two buyins to fold. I can fold tens for 2 buyins.

[Magic817]

Andy,

I think the history is key of some importance here and should effect how we play although having said that I don't think I am folding tens here.

Matt

[adiman999]

This is an interesting ICM spot. One where someone calculating equity could go wrong quite easily. Lets consider cEV (chip EV) and £EV (EV in actual monetary value based on prizepool payouts). £EV is what ICM is concerned with.

What we need to know to calculate cEV:   1. How often is the button opening from this position 3 handed? Im guessing its a huge portion of his range.
                                                            2. How much of his opening range is he going to call off a shove with. This will be affected by the table dynamic at the time ie how often are you 3bet jamming.
                                                            3. Once you have a rough estimate of his widest possible calling off range, what is your equity vs that range.

Only once you have that info can you start forming a conclusion of the optimal cEV play here.

lets say for example, he is opening 70% of his range here and only calling off with any pair, ATo+ A8s+ KTs+ KQ and a few JTs type suited connector hands etc which is a range  of 15%, so even for arguments sake lets say he calls of 20%. So he is calling off with 29% of his opening range (20 is 29% of 70) and folding 71% of the time to a shove.

Vs his calling range you have 60% equity. The pot is currently his 4k raise, plus the 3k in blinds, so 7k total. If you shove and he calls the pot is your 40k + his 40k plus the 2k in BB, so 82k.

Here is where you the away player helps because you can guarantee he will fold, which isnt the case if he was here, so it makes the calculation easier because you assume you are heads up ie the amount the BTN folds is the actual amount the shove gets through and isnt distorted by the BB picking up a hand from time to time and spoiling the party.

Using this info plugged into the following  Expected stack = Folding % * (current stack + chips in middle) + calling % * pot if called * equity when called

So here your expected stack from a shove is 0.71 * 46000 + 0.29 * 82000 * 0.6 which equals 46928. So it is a profitable shove based purely on cEV.



But we also have to factor in ICM here of course. Basing off of a 50/30/20 payout structure to keep the numbers easier. Using a standard ICM calculator and plugging in the 50/30/20 structure and the stacks before the hand, stacks if you fold, stacks if you shove and win and stacks if you shove and lose. Before the hand starts your £EV per £100 in prizepool is £34.725. If we just let our hand go we are left with a 39k stack, which changes our £EV to £34.967 (notice it went up just because we folded, as now the BB only has 1bb left and his EV drops a lot and the big stack now has even more chips so his equity increases slightly). If you shove and win your stack becomes 46k and your £EV becomes £36.014. Obviously if we get called and lose our equity becomes £20 per £100 in the prizepool, as we will receive the 20% of the prizepool for 3rd place prize money.

If we assume we have 60% against BTN calling range as we did before then ICM would say our £EV is 0.6 * 36.014 + 0.4 * 20 = £29.61. So it is less than the £EV we would have if we folded (£34.967). So based on ICM and your £EV its a fold.

Of course all these calculations are assuming 60% equity vs his calling range, which I think is a pretty good estimate. Just out of interest, or for anyone who actually cares, you would need over 90% equity to make this a profitable ICM shove, so that means even AA is a fold pre, which seems insane, but is correct.

This spot brings up some interesting dynamics of late stage tournament play vs cash play or even early stages tournament play. This is a clear shove in a cash game, or early in a tournament. But here in this spot, there is no hand you should shove based purely on ICM. The optimal play is to just fold, let the away player blind out, then crush HU.