Bloody Jacks

[DMorgan]

I do a fold

[lucky_scrote]

Whatever happens you can't cold peel.

You have to have a feel of the table at this point. If the tourney is really soft (which it will be) it will give you an argument for folding here, which I probably do, and when I do I tell nobody.

[SuuPRlim]

can we not just go all in?

[AlexMartin]

can we not just go all in?

surely this

[pleno1]

Well surely a raise/call is going to be better than cramming?

Not only do we get times where we induce but if two go all in we can fold v easily.

[Pinchop73]

Whatever happens you can't cold peel.

If a relative unknown cold peels your button 3b squeeze from the small blind, and you end up seeing a flop 3 way, how do you feel? Ar you comfortable with this situation 50bb effective? What do you think of this person?

What are you going to end up doing on a 9 high rainbow flop when your holding a typical regs 3b button squueze range?

[lucky_scrote]

It's difficult for this to not go in, it's a good spot for sure. The reason why I don't like cold peeling is because it's going to be 4 way a lot and you are OOP not having scooby doo what is going on. There aren't many good flops for you.

I really like clicking it because I'm folding to UTG open as he has to get it in really tight. If you run the numbers you are going to be showing a good profit for sure if you click get it in.

[youthnkzR]

Fold.

[lucky_scrote]

I don't think anyone can say fold without doing the math breakdown when it's not a clear fold. It's going to be a soft tourney with a decent structure so you probably want to dodge this if it's a small edge in getting it in.

Without working out numbers I would say clicking and getting it in is somewhere between good and really good.

[dwayne110]

Well surely a raise/call is going to be better than cramming?

Not only do we get times where we induce but if two go all in we can fold v easily.

This. Shoving seems too much of a gamble in a spot where either/both opponents could have the goods. I don't see why a strong player on a perceived weak table would want to put in it when we have 50bb's and loads of play left? If we get called we're probs flipping/against overpairs, just seems a big risk for a small pot relative to our stack size. Granted, it takes any 5-bet bluffs out of our opponents play, but I don't think the pot-stack ratio justifies the play.

[lucky_scrote]

If he's never bluffing and his range is TT+AKo+ and the OR folds a lot then if you run the numbers it's probably a break even jam (43% equity against those hands). Include some bluffs in his range and it quickly becomes very profitable. Let's not forget that the 3better probably isn't going to get it in correctly (be too tight or too loose).

Like TL900 said, prove me wrong and I can find a fold.

[cambridgealex]

If he's never bluffing and his range is TT+AKo+ and the OR folds a lot then if you run the numbers it's probably a break even jam (43% equity against those hands). Include some bluffs in his range and it quickly becomes very profitable. Let's not forget that the 3better probably isn't going to get it in correctly (be too tight or too loose).

Like TL900 said, prove me wrong and I can find a fold.

I can't prove you wrong, but I can suggest that it's very unlikely that the 3better is going broke with TT to our cold 4bet. I would say it's QQ+ and AK that he goes with, so we'll be about 36% vs his range if we get it in. Of course we win some chips when everyone folds which is good, so overall getting it in might be a profitable play chipEV wise, especially if you allow for the possibility he does go broke with TT and AQ some % of the time.

But there's no way I'm risking 50bbs to make 1-2bbs in EV at this stage in a vsoft 100e comp with 40k ftw and less than 100 people left.

[lucky_scrote]

Alright then. Let's give the guy a 3bet of 10% meaning he's folding to your 4bet 70% of the time as QQ+ AK+ is 3% of range.

It's kinda hard to calculate exactly what the OR is going to get it in with, possibly AKs QQ+ so you have to take this into account but you have to also take into account that the 3better 5bet folds. I think these two scenarios kind of equal each other out. They are both pretty rare scenarios though.

48k dead in the middle, you win that 70% of the time and the other 30% of the time you get it in for 36.6% equity to win 468k which averages as -39k each time.


Using those numbers, I work out that each time this hand plays out as above you will make 22k(5.5bb) in chips. That's quite a large edge to miss out on and I think we've been on the generous side for this too because you don't lose much when the OR has it (we 4bet click fold) and also the guy that 3bets can peel with worse hands too (that will shower a much much greater profit if he does so). You can of course play with some figures here and there like fiddling his 3bet% range and GII range but all in all, this is a fairly close analysis and given people are probably bad on this site they are likely to do things that make the hand more profitable for you.

I think at the time I can't blame you for folding, it does seem a close spot at first glance, but given the chance to number crunch this is an absolutely clear cut GII.

[cambridgealex]

If those numbers were accurate then we have a super profitable 4b/fold with 72o. There's no way he's folding 70% to a 3bet.

He's not 3betting 10% in this spot (hands like K9s and QJ), it's probably more like 6-7% (AJs+, 99+ KQ). And getting in QQ+ and AK is about half of that range, so I think the numbers are more like this:

50.5k in the pot (think you missed antes)

50% of the time he folds (99/TT, AJ, KQ and AQ) = + 50.5k

50% of the time he jams (QQ+ and AK), we call and are 36% vs his range.
     so 18% of the time we double up and profit 233k (our 209 doubled, plus the 8+8+ bb and antes (4+4.5)
     and 32% of the time we bust and lose 207k

so (0.5*50.5)+(0.18*233)-(0.32*207)=0.95k or 950chips or two antes.

[cambridgealex]

I've ignored the OR as like you said, the times we get our 4bet peeled may well cancel out the times OR has QQ+ AK and gets it in.