GPS Hand wth nut blocker

[Eso Kral]

GPS Edinburgh

Villain is Mudasser Hussain and has 22k we cover with 27k at start of hand and blinds are 100/200

I was on this table to start with and chipped up to 33k but villain late regged so only saw me for one orbit before I moved tables and chipped down abit and have come back to be sandwiched between the 4 imo decent players with the rest of the table unknown.  The villain will not know me and our only direct history was where I cold 4'd QQ vs his 3b from the blinds before I moved tables.

Am open to all streets but specifically thoughts on river ck raise/sizing.

I open   to 450 from hj @ 1/200 and villain 3's from btn to 800 which we peel so fairly std so far

Flop        (1900)

I chk call 700 to see

   (3300)

and chk call 1400 as felt there are lots of good rivers

   (6100)

I chk and villain bets 3075 and after a short dwell I raise to 8050

Too small/spewy/just flat river?  thoughts pls

[Tal]

I literally never believe this play on this board. Ever. Call a 3bet then c/c c/c c/r? Hmmm...

Sometimes, that gets me into trouble. Like when the villain has spiked his queen on the end.

What do you do if he sticks it back in your eye with JJ-99 and decides you can't have the flush? Personally (and this might be why I'm not playing GPS Main Events), I prefer a chunky value bet that he can call off. It's really hard for him to raise you, I would think...?

Interested in the views of the grown ups.

[titaniumbean]

assume villain is on btn/co hence we are oop.

why c/c flop and turn?

on the river c/r gets him to fold KK and only KK.

The only street i'm vaguely happy with is preflop tbh.

I don't understand what 'lots of good rivers means'? to bluff, hoping for a 7 to make us one of them runs?

[SuuPRlim]

HELLO ESO! 

OTR you have to call 3075 to win 12250 so you need to be inning about 35-40% of the time (without doing the maths).

So firstly 1) do you have the best hand 40% of the time? You've called his turn bet so you obviously believe his range is kinda air-heavy as I assume we're not giving him a pure magnum 3betting range and deciding to float to try take him off KK or AA OTR as that seems like joke spew (trying to make people fold AA/KK in live poker tournaments) the other consideration is whether we beat any value-bets, is he betting JJ or TT for value? Or a random Qx hand he's been barrelling off with (although I'd discount the majority of these hands as we have the )

2) Now look at his range, he 3bet PF and c-bet what is actually not a good board for a PF 3better (although I imagine he'd still Cbet a very high %) he's then bet the turn which is an even worse card for a PF 3better, and has barrelled the river when the flush has come in, a legitimate value-betting range for the river is prolly flushes/straights (not he has many straights)/sets and AA/KK although I'm not even convinced he'd v-bet AA or KK naked on this river.

3) Is he bluffing - His "light 3bets" PF all pick up showdown value at some point in the hand so a very hig % of them will prolly slow down, as for complete air his complete air range is basically AK/AJ/JT/9T. Is he gonna have a hand like 89s and decide to bluff with it? I dont think you can give someone credit for that until you see them do it.

So he's prolly not value-betting worse, and doesn't have a whole load of combo's of pure air/bluffing + we're not entirely sure he's got it in him to triple barrell bluff those hands anyways + if he has those hands Pre-Flop he also has 97s/76s/JTs etc and he's bet three times into a board that is better for our range than his.

I think you've gone wrong OTT personally, I think you should c/f as you have pretty much the worst hand you ever have on this turn card and no visibility and prolly pretty poor visibility against a legit value range, and you dont have super strong equity against his bluffs either. I like the flop c/c as ot's cheap and he will 100% barrell on A's and Q's if you trun them + you might showdown the best hand sometimes.

As for the river when you get there like this i think I'm borderline indifferent between calling and folding, if you think (or even suspect) you can beat some value-bets then 100% call, if you are convinced you can't then I'd fold. Tal's suggestion of leading the river for value I don't like unfortunately as I think if we are winning this pot at showdown then his (albeit thin) range of bluffs is going to be very important to our profits.

I think raising is the worst of the options as I think you're gonna run into a straight or a flush quite a bit, and there is no promises he'll fold AA/KK if he has decided to bet them for value, if I was to raise I thik going all-in is the only play, raising to 8k from 3k is getting nothing to fold as he basically only needs to be winning 20-25% of the time and people are a sucker for a good price. If you ship all-in you're basically saying NUT-FLUSH or nothing and you put his entire range to a difficult decision (as you do rep the NF perfectly well) whereas the 8k raise basically just makes AA and KK (if he even has those by this point) scratch his head for a few minutes.

BUT yeh turn is the mistake for me, we've set ourselves up a spot where we can bluff/value-bet/chk-call/fold and we have no idea which is best, or if any of them are any good, I like to avoid this situations (speshly OOP) if I can.

[Eso Kral]

assume villain is on btn/co hence we are oop.

why c/c flop and turn?

on the river c/r gets him to fold KK and only KK.

The only street i'm vaguely happy with is preflop tbh.

I don't understand what 'lots of good rivers means'? to bluff, hoping for a 7 to make us one of them runs?

Ammended op as Villain is indeed otb.

Obv I am open to be flamed but we are fairly deep at the start of the hand so pre is std.
Villain is a circuit reg so am always peeling at least one street giving him credit for a light 3b pre vs me whilst hoping to pick up club equity ott and if I have peeled pre broadway club or spade combo's I am always going to peel the turn as well yh?

So when I hit the it feels to me that I can feasibly rep the flush (albeit slightly less credibly being the )

I was planning on bluffing the river so guess should just call?

I literally never believe this play on this board. Ever. Call a 3bet then c/c c/c c/r? Hmmm...

Sometimes, that gets me into trouble. Like when the villain has spiked his queen on the end.

What do you do if he sticks it back in your eye with JJ-99 and decides you can't have the flush? Personally (and this might be why I'm not playing GPS Main Events), I prefer a chunky value bet that he can call off. It's really hard for him to raise you, I would think...?

Interested in the views of the grown ups.

@ Tal - we can have the flush though imo and villain dpendant chk the river as knowing him he does not have to have a value hand himself

[Eso Kral]

HELLO ESO! 

OTR you have to call 3075 to win 12250 so you need to be inning about 35-40% of the time (without doing the maths).

So firstly 1) do you have the best hand 40% of the time? You've called his turn bet so you obviously believe his range is kinda air-heavy as I assume we're not giving him a pure magnum 3betting range and deciding to float to try take him off KK or AA OTR as that seems like joke spew (trying to make people fold AA/KK in live poker tournaments) the other consideration is whether we beat any value-bets, is he betting JJ or TT for value? Or a random Qx hand he's been barrelling off with (although I'd discount the majority of these hands as we have the )

2) Now look at his range, he 3bet PF and c-bet what is actually not a good board for a PF 3better (although I imagine he'd still Cbet a very high %) he's then bet the turn which is an even worse card for a PF 3better, and has barrelled the river when the flush has come in, a legitimate value-betting range for the river is prolly flushes/straights (not he has many straights)/sets and AA/KK although I'm not even convinced he'd v-bet AA or KK naked on this river.

3) Is he bluffing - His "light 3bets" PF all pick up showdown value at some point in the hand so a very hig % of them will prolly slow down, as for complete air his complete air range is basically AK/AJ/JT/9T. Is he gonna have a hand like 89s and decide to bluff with it? I dont think you can give someone credit for that until you see them do it.

So he's prolly not value-betting worse, and doesn't have a whole load of combo's of pure air/bluffing + we're not entirely sure he's got it in him to triple barrell bluff those hands anyways + if he has those hands Pre-Flop he also has 97s/76s/JTs etc and he's bet three times into a board that is better for our range than his.

I think you've gone wrong OTT personally, I think you should c/f as you have pretty much the worst hand you ever have on this turn card and no visibility and prolly pretty poor visibility against a legit value range, and you dont have super strong equity against his bluffs either. I like the flop c/c as ot's cheap and he will 100% barrell on A's and Q's if you trun them + you might showdown the best hand sometimes.

As for the river when you get there like this i think I'm borderline indifferent between calling and folding, if you think (or even suspect) you can beat some value-bets then 100% call, if you are convinced you can't then I'd fold. Tal's suggestion of leading the river for value I don't like unfortunately as I think if we are winning this pot at showdown then his (albeit thin) range of bluffs is going to be very important to our profits.

I think raising is the worst of the options as I think you're gonna run into a straight or a flush quite a bit, and there is no promises he'll fold AA/KK if he has decided to bet them for value, if I was to raise I thik going all-in is the only play, raising to 8k from 3k is getting nothing to fold as he basically only needs to be winning 20-25% of the time and people are a sucker for a good price. If you ship all-in you're basically saying NUT-FLUSH or nothing and you put his entire range to a difficult decision (as you do rep the NF perfectly well) whereas the 8k raise basically just makes AA and KK (if he even has those by this point) scratch his head for a few minutes.

BUT yeh turn is the mistake for me, we've set ourselves up a spot where we can bluff/value-bet/chk-call/fold and we have no idea which is best, or if any of them are any good, I like to avoid this situations (speshly OOP) if I can.

Great reply thanks met

Yh I figured it was too small and set out my whole post on it being too small then added in spew/flat and you are right obv the price I have given him he will love.

[Tal]

I suppose the point is where you think your TPTK is in relation to his hand when the river card hits. We have unexpectedly improved against some of his possible hands but the river does hit our perceived range.

If you are generally ahead of him, what does he have that he will call your river c/r that you can beat?

Or, if you're bluffing, what does he have that is better than your hand that you can get to fold be making it 8k?

I'm eternally in danger of underthinking by saying we want better hands to fold and worse hands to call.

[pleno1]

is the river a value bet or a bluff?

[Eso Kral]

is the river a value bet or a bluff?

Bit of both obv as we discussed in bonny Scotland although iirc I was more weighted to bluffs and you value yh?

[Tal]

is the river a value bet or a bluff?

What I say in 100 words Pleno covers in nine...

As ever, beating lilDave's response is only aspirational.

[pleno1]

is the river a value bet or a bluff?

Bit of both obv as we discussed in bonny Scotland although iirc I was more weighted to bluffs and you value yh?

hmmm yeah.

i think that he will often check back aa,kk on the river, his small pairs that connect with the board will likely always call but usually never 3bet pre flop, so theres not a big range that we would go for. For value seems optimistic because wed need him to bluff with a hand we beat and then decide to bluffcatch with it. So 3bet a4s, barrel off and then put you on some kind of draw, it just seems a little optimistic.

I think pre flop and flop is good, although I think 4betting pre flop is best as his sizing is bullshit and never a hand that dominates us and he can call us wide to the 4bet as youre deep, so id 4bet for value pre flop. Flop seems optimistic, yet good, Id ping one off aswell almost always, although shrug folding seems fine too.

Turn just seems a little bit fps and would just fold as were so unsure about his range.

[Mitch]

Just fold turn.

Seems like you are relying on one of these 'good cards' to come so you can bluff him, but the two problems are:

1) If he has 3bet you wide, then the cards you want to rep can easily be the ones that make his hand.

2) You have actually got one of those scare cards, and you checked. If he decides to check back and give up with  or whatever he 3bet you with that now has showdown, you have missed your chance to bluff anyway.

 I think if youre re going to do something like this (which works much better in a situation where you can assign them to a much more nutted range pre, ie. nit cold 4's the sb, so you know they have aces / kings only) then you should be leading the river rather that check raising.

[AlexMartin]

hand is strong enough to showdown, checkjam or something.

[muckthenuts]

Think the hand has been spoke about well, but just wantedto suggest that maybe your gameplan in general for this hand is too fps for the GPS. Is a really well structured comp with a lot of weaker players so this early on so like the risk/reward isn't worth getting this ool at t200 of the comp

[jgcblack]

Think the hand has been spoke about well, but just wantedto suggest that maybe your gameplan in general for this hand is too fps for the GPS. Is a really well structured comp with a lot of weaker players so this early on so like the risk/reward isn't worth getting this ool at t200 of the comp

#beentalkintojb?