Turning hand into bluff on river

[Flash92]

Down to 16/70 in live £10+R  - 6 paid- blinds 500/1K

8 handed
Hero UTG with 38K
SB abc player with 36K

Hero open UTG to 2.3K w/
Villain min 3B to 4.8K

Flop

Villain checks
Hero 4.5K
Villain calls

Turn

Check,  check

River

Villain leads 6.5K
Hero jams for 27K or so...

Thoughts? Looks like Villain has AK or AQ, perhaps blocker bet with KK/QQ

What are your thoughts? Think he folds often enough? Better to just fold and maintain stack?

[Rod]

Open Fold pre UTG imo could be too tight maybe but I like it as we end up OOP post flop a lot.

Not at all sure about calling the 3-bet against a solid player although you are going to have position post flop.

Preflop he has a range of lot's of pair 99+ and big cards like AK and AQ I think. Should we be thinking anything different here from what we know about this player? Obviously he does have some bluffs in his range as well.

The flop looks dry and good for our hand. When he checks I am not putting him on a big overpair as he should bet that right? I like the bet, when he calls he can still have hands like 99, TT and JJ I think. I don't really like the turn as it is not impossible he has called us with AK or AQ although it does not feel likely to be honest. It goes check/check so we don't gain much info as he could easily check and ace to us here hoping we bet worse.

The river bet is small, we might be good. 6.5K into around 19K? Looks like a value bet and yeah, looks like and ace. KK and QQ should probably just check/call given the action so far so not thinking blocker bet with them. If we have no sure reason to believe he will fold AK to the shove then just fold and move on. By default I would fold and would need a good read to try this bluff.

From my experience of live £10R we don't need to be doing this against your average player, just make a good hand and bet it.

[rfgqqabc]

From my experience of live £10R we don't need to be doing this against your average player, just make a good hand and bet it.

I think Rods last line is the most important. I'd definitely raise pre on most tables. If it was particularly call heavy I might fold.

As played on the river I wouldn't expect my opponent to fold AK/AQ, and it definitely looks like he has this. Depending on the player it might be fine though.

[gouty]

Probably wise to never bluff ABC players in these tourneys. It's also hard for a good player to find a hand you can have with that line.

Could be getting called by nearly everyone here. What hand are you trying to represent?  Pocket tens just about make sense.

[Flash92]

Thought I was repping a few hands  such as TT, AT, Backdoor flush :/

His hand is just so face up, I would think he knows I know what he has?

[rfgqqabc]

Thought I was repping a few hands  such as TT, AT, Backdoor flush :/

His hand is just so face up, I would think he knows I know what he has?

Haven't you seen someone stack off with 99 when the old fella in the nineball who has literally not moved a chip whilst reading the paper all evening cold 4bet shoves his aces. If not find some better live tournaments

[Rexas]

Thought I was repping a few hands  such as TT, AT, Backdoor flush :/

His hand is just so face up, I would think he knows I know what he has?

Not entirely sure it's credible to rep any of these hands on this board, and I'm also not entirely sure I like putting any money into this pot at all. But the main thing I want to say is that, even if you have put the guy on this hand, people do not get in a car and drive to a casino to fold pairs. It's very hard to make a pair in this game, and you definitely can't win the pot if you fold. I would very very very rarely try to make anyone fold a pair in this sort of tournament, and certainly not the best pair, just seems like a kamikaze move.

[verndog158]

seems a bizarre line to take, why check behind on the turn?why not bet the ace?
if it is a typical live crapshoot tourny, then never expect him to fold AK/AQ maybe even ace rag here, and im guessing a 40bb stack is fairly well sized compared to the rest of the field? im happy to fold here, no point in getting involved. would be a shame to get rid of a decent stack in this hand
think id usually fold t a 3bet, dont mind opening. then again in positon, not terrible, but probs a muck
personally, think id bet the turn, and be giving up to anymore action from the villain, unless we improve on the river

[Flash92]

Ye this makes sense, fps I guess.

I'm quite happy with pre and flop play.

Don't like betting turn and he has AK or AQ when he c/c flop.

Fold river seems best.

Thanks as always guys

[SuuPRlim]

KK QQ seems unlikely really for him.
Fold the river and wp hand imo. Jamming you are repping a flush and I would imagine most opponents in this type of comp will easily find a gdd reason to dis-believe you.

[pleno1]

yeah not folding pre, gonan be hard to convince me limp isnt better than folding too.

[muckthenuts]

Def never try and make people fold top pair