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Poker Hand Analysis
PLO On the turn with tons of outs but no idea which we want!
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Topic: PLO On the turn with tons of outs but no idea which we want! (Read 1857 times)
SuuPRlim
Hero Member
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Posts: 10437
PLO On the turn with tons of outs but no idea which we want!
«
on:
January 03, 2014, 05:24:13 PM »
iPoker - $10 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4:
http://www.pokertracker.com
BB: $1,010
Hero (SB): $2,146
Hero posts SB $5, BB posts BB $10
Pre Flop: (pot: $15) Hero has
Hero raises to $25, BB raises to $75, Hero calls $50
Flop : ($150 BB, 2 players)
BB bets $105 BB, Hero calls $105
Turn : ($360 BB, 2 players)
BB bets $360...
ME
Plenty of equity (surely!?) but very hard to play the river. Doesn't appear like i have any fold equity either (I know 100% i dont here vs this guy) and seems very hard to imagine that my 99 is winning right now (although not impossible)
I think he would pot/call this turn wider than you think he will as well.
What you wanna do? Feels like we could hit any 3 of the buttons here
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Tal
Hero Member
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"He's always at it!"
Re: PLO On the turn with tons of outs but no idea which we want!
«
Reply #1 on:
January 03, 2014, 07:17:10 PM »
Quite often in PLO threads I've seen on blonde, the answer is "fold and save your money for the next hand, as there are plenty of better spots out there." Is it that different here?
Spades are good, but what chance do you make it that he has bigger diamonds? If you call here, do you have to call anything on the river in case he's bluffing because of the stacks, or is it just a cash spot where villain checks behind if he's whiffed?
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
GreekStein
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Re: PLO On the turn with tons of outs but no idea which we want!
«
Reply #2 on:
January 03, 2014, 07:51:04 PM »
can't see myself folding here in game time
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SuuPRlim
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Re: PLO On the turn with tons of outs but no idea which we want!
«
Reply #3 on:
January 04, 2014, 04:34:16 AM »
Quote from: Tal on January 03, 2014, 07:17:10 PM
Quite often in PLO threads I've seen on blonde, the answer is "fold and save your money for the next hand, as there are plenty of better spots out there." Is it that different here?
Spades are good, but what chance do you make it that he has bigger diamonds? If you call here, do you have to call anything on the river in case he's bluffing because of the stacks, or is it just a cash spot where villain checks behind if he's whiffed?
actually I kinda feel like spades are just as likely to be dominated as diamonds - as if he has bigger FD in either suit he'll prolly jam this turn.
I cannot imagine any scenario where I river a flush and do anything but be all-in...which is kinda the problem...
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gouty
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Re: PLO On the turn with tons of outs but no idea which we want!
«
Reply #4 on:
January 04, 2014, 06:31:14 AM »
There are so few rivers we are going to fold that checking can't be any good can it? Due having to call it off so often.
Seems like shove or fold to me and lack of any fold equity you mention prob leans to fold. You don't half get in some shitty spots.
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SuuPRlim
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Re: PLO On the turn with tons of outs but no idea which we want!
«
Reply #5 on:
January 04, 2014, 11:48:35 AM »
Quote from: Tal on January 03, 2014, 07:17:10 PM
Quite often in PLO threads I've seen on blonde, the answer is "fold and save your money for the next hand, as there are plenty of better spots out there." Is it that different here?
Yeah - this is often true, however it's a little different HU, in particularly in aggressive games vs regulars - this guy is a reasonably strong regular player, where you are kind of obligated to to take a lot of the thinner spots basically just to avoid being run-over, because you're in every hand with often much worse hands than in 6max games you find yourself in lots more kinda marginal situations - if you surrender too many of those spots in wait for a better one you'll find you've dusted 150~ big blinds off to him by the time it comes along often. If that makes sense?
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Tal
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"He's always at it!"
Re: PLO On the turn with tons of outs but no idea which we want!
«
Reply #6 on:
January 04, 2014, 11:55:23 AM »
Quote from: SuuPRlim on January 04, 2014, 11:48:35 AM
Quote from: Tal on January 03, 2014, 07:17:10 PM
Quite often in PLO threads I've seen on blonde, the answer is "fold and save your money for the next hand, as there are plenty of better spots out there." Is it that different here?
Yeah - this is often true, however it's a little different HU, in particularly in aggressive games vs regulars - this guy is a reasonably strong regular player, where you are kind of obligated to to take a lot of the thinner spots basically just to avoid being run-over, because you're in every hand with often much worse hands than in 6max games you find yourself in lots more kinda marginal situations - if you surrender too many of those spots in wait for a better one you'll find you've dusted 150~ big blinds off to him by the time it comes along often.
If that makes sense
?
Absolutely.
Would you have done anything differently with hindsight?
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
SuuPRlim
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Posts: 10437
Re: PLO On the turn with tons of outs but no idea which we want!
«
Reply #7 on:
January 04, 2014, 12:18:54 PM »
Quote from: Tal on January 04, 2014, 11:55:23 AM
Quote from: SuuPRlim on January 04, 2014, 11:48:35 AM
Quote from: Tal on January 03, 2014, 07:17:10 PM
Quite often in PLO threads I've seen on blonde, the answer is "fold and save your money for the next hand, as there are plenty of better spots out there." Is it that different here?
Yeah - this is often true, however it's a little different HU, in particularly in aggressive games vs regulars - this guy is a reasonably strong regular player, where you are kind of obligated to to take a lot of the thinner spots basically just to avoid being run-over, because you're in every hand with often much worse hands than in 6max games you find yourself in lots more kinda marginal situations - if you surrender too many of those spots in wait for a better one you'll find you've dusted 150~ big blinds off to him by the time it comes along often.
If that makes sense
?
Absolutely.
Would you have done anything differently with hindsight?
erm, well I will play pre-flop and flop like this every time, couple of players with a very very high c-bet in 3bet pots who I would consider jamming against, but I can't get it in with this hand OTF vs most and I certainly can't fold. I would never fold pre-flop either. The turn I am still genuinely unsure what is the best play. I've decided on Jamming, calling and folding at some point since it happened lol
Gouty's point that we have no fold equity so that leans him towards a fold is a very good one, if I thought I had even 5% fold equity (he folds 1 in 20 times) I think that would throw me towards JAMMING as when you can factor in some folds the profit of a certain spots (speshly one like this with no real immediate showdown value) absolutley rockets - ofc the times he does fold I prolly would have had 50%+ equity anyways.
This player though I think is never folding here once he pots (no-one is really, the pot bet is basically saying "IM ALL-IN FIND A BETTER HAND")
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gs08bjohnson
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Re: PLO On the turn with tons of outs but no idea which we want!
«
Reply #8 on:
January 05, 2014, 12:07:33 PM »
I admit I am very inexperienced at this four card game but at any form of poker when i get into spots where im unsure i try to think what would make the hand easier for me. I think I agree with gouty that as river will be so hard to play I'd prefer to fold rather than call, thus avoiding a big mistake in a verrrry marginal spot.
With the money already in the pot getting it in cant be terrible equity wise, and when we do get there we don't want him hero folding, and for the times we are ahead we may as well charge him.
Surely if one of your fds are dominated then the 99 has a better chance to be good? Are there not some smaller combo hands you pretty much crush?
I feel as though I'd rip it in now.
Did you ever consider leading the turn? Does the villain always mash pot when he does bet the turn?
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Rexas
Hero Member
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Posts: 1963
Re: PLO On the turn with tons of outs but no idea which we want!
«
Reply #9 on:
January 05, 2014, 12:18:06 PM »
I actually quite like that idea, thoughts on donk potting turn? Seems like that makes everything easier for us...
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Quote from: verndog158 on June 29, 2014, 07:49:39 PM
humour is very much encouraged, however theres humour and theres not.
Quote from: cambridgealex on November 04, 2014, 05:40:09 PM
I disrepectfully agree with Matt
doubleup
Hero Member
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Posts: 7123
Re: PLO On the turn with tons of outs but no idea which we want!
«
Reply #10 on:
January 05, 2014, 12:34:20 PM »
Quote from: Rexas on January 05, 2014, 12:18:06 PM
I actually quite like that idea, thoughts on donk potting turn? Seems like that makes everything easier for us...
its hu hero is 2nd to act
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Rexas
Hero Member
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Posts: 1963
Re: PLO On the turn with tons of outs but no idea which we want!
«
Reply #11 on:
January 05, 2014, 12:38:39 PM »
Quote from: doubleup on January 05, 2014, 12:34:20 PM
Quote from: Rexas on January 05, 2014, 12:18:06 PM
I actually quite like that idea, thoughts on donk potting turn? Seems like that makes everything easier for us...
its hu hero is 2nd to act
FML
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Quote from: verndog158 on June 29, 2014, 07:49:39 PM
humour is very much encouraged, however theres humour and theres not.
Quote from: cambridgealex on November 04, 2014, 05:40:09 PM
I disrepectfully agree with Matt
doubleup
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 7123
Re: PLO On the turn with tons of outs but no idea which we want!
«
Reply #12 on:
January 05, 2014, 12:45:08 PM »
Quote from: Rexas on January 05, 2014, 12:38:39 PM
Quote from: doubleup on January 05, 2014, 12:34:20 PM
Quote from: Rexas on January 05, 2014, 12:18:06 PM
I actually quite like that idea, thoughts on donk potting turn? Seems like that makes everything easier for us...
its hu hero is 2nd to act
FML
Although it does raise the point - presumably if hero was in villains position he would empty the clip?
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gs08bjohnson
Jr. Member
Offline
Posts: 59
Re: PLO On the turn with tons of outs but no idea which we want!
«
Reply #13 on:
January 05, 2014, 01:09:52 PM »
Quote from: doubleup on January 05, 2014, 12:34:20 PM
Quote from: Rexas on January 05, 2014, 12:18:06 PM
I actually quite like that idea, thoughts on donk potting turn? Seems like that makes everything easier for us...
its hu hero is 2nd to act
It's problem.
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