PLO, River from hell

[Derbylad]

PokerStars Zoom Hand #110265753446:  Omaha Pot Limit ($1/$2) - 2014/01/17 3:36:02 WET [2014/01/16 22:36:02 ET]
Table 'Diotima' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Zebalhao ($543.08 in chips)
Seat 2: jimmyhat1000 ($461.36 in chips)
Seat 3: rdmr ($93.87 in chips)
Seat 4: Garrincha_90 ($468.84 in chips)
Seat 5: GHolden7 ($517.90 in chips)
Seat 6: hasuace ($378.26 in chips)
jimmyhat1000: posts small blind $1
rdmr: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to GHolden7 [ ]
Garrincha_90: folds
GHolden7: raises $4 to $6
hasuace: folds
Zebalhao: calls $6
jimmyhat1000: folds
rdmr: folds
*** FLOP *** [td ]
GHolden7: checks
Zebalhao: bets $10
GHolden7: raises $34.32 to $44.32
Zebalhao: calls $34.32
*** TURN *** [ ] []
GHolden7: bets $100.84
Zebalhao: calls $100.84
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
GHolden7: ?

Unkown opponent. Feel like he always has the   in his hand to continue

[DMorgan]

With all the diamond and jack blockers I'd say that he's probably weighted more towards sets/2pair type hands on the flop. I would assume that J9 checks back this river but as for whether or not a non-boat Kx bets or not I couldn't really say since I don't play these games so i'll leave that one to lildave.

It feels like for us to have the best hand on the river he's going to have to have something pretty specific like KJ98 w/diamonds or KQTx w/diamonds and weighing that up against all the set and 2pair combos I just don't think that there are enough hands that he's going to turn into bluffs to do anything other than c/fold?

Slight derail but from villains perspective this seems like a pretty sexy spot to turn his J9 w/diamonds hand into a bluff and jam river? Although I would expect most randoms to just snap check it back.

[Rexas]

Had a little chat about this, and I feel like because we do have the board so crushed (i.e. we hold or block most of the cards the villain would need to call the check raise and the turn bet with) and that card smashes him so much (he's going to have a K high two pair with the a lot, so even if he doesnt have a set that card still massively improves his range) that it's gonna be pretty hard for us to have the best hand now. Assuming we check and he bets, he is going to have us beat so much here that even if we call and are correct I would feel like we lose the pot vs his range basically every time. I think this is one of those spots where if he does make a bluff on the river, we should just accept that we're oop and have hit the worse card ever and allow him to do so. Think the motto "If we never get bluffed, we're calling too much" is relevant here imo :p

[theprawnidentity]

"If we never get bluffed, we're calling too much"

I feel like I've walked into some parallel universe where Rexas is making sense.....

And I wouldn't comment on the hand myself, 2 cards too many innit.

[Karabiner]

Could we not bet about $125 here?

[GreekStein]

Would probably check fold this river vs most

[Derbylad]

Had a little chat about this, and I feel like because we do have the board so crushed (i.e. we hold or block most of the cards the villain would need to call the check raise and the turn bet with) and that card smashes him so much (he's going to have a K high two pair with the a lot, so even if he doesnt have a set that card still massively improves his range) that it's gonna be pretty hard for us to have the best hand now. Assuming we check and he bets, he is going to have us beat so much here that even if we call and are correct I would feel like we lose the pot vs his range basically every time. I think this is one of those spots where if he does make a bluff on the river, we should just accept that we're oop and have hit the worse card ever and allow him to do so. Think the motto "If we never get bluffed, we're calling too much" is relevant here imo :p

Essentially, all of this is what we concluded last night. I inevitably checked and villain bets out $185.
Do we ever make the curiosity call?

[DMorgan]

Good sizing from villain imo, don't think you're ever good here even if he bets J9 always. Your hand is pretty face up at this point as AJ

[wazz]

Fairly easy check-fold what with all your blockers, best you can reasonably hope for is to chop

[SuuPRlim]

When you have 2 jacks and the its a defo defo check/fold.

Literally nothing else you can do he has hardly ANY bluffs at all, in fact if he's decent then he prolly should actually never be bluffing!

Small-ish bet doesn't surprise me when the K pairs, making QQQKK and TTTKK kinda venerable, and KKKK obviously has hardly anything to pay it off.