Anyone else think there might be an argument for folding flop? We have no turn cards that we actually like, as is proven by the fact that we turn absolute gin and things get pretty messy. I suppose we do have a chance of being ahead at that moment, but we aren't going to have great equity in the pot especially against two people, and are likely to fold a lot of turns or end up guessing on later streets. We definitely avoid a bunch of tricky situations by folding flop (different if HU, not folding then). Even the bare
has potentially 15 outs and on its own is a slight favorite against our hand (I think somewhere around 55%).
Turn could go either way imo. Obviously we're in much better shape now that we've faded a street and actually improved our hand, but we still can't really beat any value hands. Gonza's range can have most of the value hands (sets, big flushes) and big pairs (which may or may not be folded if we jam, but should be) along with draws made up mostly
x. Labdrinks range can still include a bunch of the value hands, but imo is a little less likely to include sets/two pair/straights given the board and the fact he hasn't taken any aggressive action yet. Still, I'm not sure what calls us that we are happy about if we jam. AA with the
probably doesn't fold and we beat that, but if gonza is a half decent reg with a little understanding of preflop position he wont have two pair/straights all that often and so won't be calling us with worse very often. As above, labdrink defo gets more of the shittier value hands, but still has the good stuff as well as a load of draws/one pair hands that will be folded if we jam. Basically, if we go all in and get called, we can't expect to be in great shape if called. That being said, we do fold out a bunch of stuff that has pretty reasonable equity against us, and have the potential to get called by worse. Personally, I'd lean towards calling the turn and re-evaluating on the river tho.
River is just bleurgh. If we think the guy will play sets like this, or two pair, then its a call obviously. If we have no clue, then I probably call. That being said, we still have Gonza behind who could still have it if hes that way inclined. Meh, I don't know, seems pretty close to me, will have to think about it some more. Can't blame you for calling or folding, but I think this tough decision has come about from our mistake on the flop.
Hopefully that essay wasn't too tough on the eyes, welcome to Blonde and welcome to the PHA
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